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Author Topic: When does Specter face retribution?  (Read 20420 times)
Franzl
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« Reply #50 on: February 12, 2009, 11:05:21 am »

but my default rating would be at least an 80% chance for the DEM to win.

That's just ridiculous. What is that based on? It will be a midterm year and if the Dems nominate someone like Schwartz, they most certainly don't have more than a 50-50 shot.

Pennsylvania of 2010 is certainly not likely to be the Pennsylvania of 2008. I think people are making a huge mistake in basically labeling us a safe Dem state. You want to say that any Dem has a 60% shot at the seat? Fine. I'll still strongly disagree but that's a lot more reasonable than 80%!

I dunno if it's really 80%....but it seems incredibly likely.

Concerning the bolded part...it just seems like this cycle continues every 2 years. No way the PA of 2006 will be the PA of 2004....no way the PA of 2008 will be the PA of 2006, no way the PA of 2008 will be the PA of 2010....etc.

I won't bet on it....but we'll speak again about this day after Election Day, 2010 Smiley
« Last Edit: February 12, 2009, 11:06:52 am by Attorney General Franzl »Logged
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #51 on: February 12, 2009, 11:13:48 am »



I dunno if it's really 80%....but it seems incredibly likely.

Incredibly likely...based on conditions...two years out.
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« Reply #52 on: February 12, 2009, 02:12:44 pm »

keep in mind pennsylvania is a deep blue state. primary specter? why not primary snowe and collins while you're at it.
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« Reply #53 on: February 12, 2009, 02:22:36 pm »

I'd be surprised if Specter wasn't primaried at this point. I'd like to believe Phil, but I can't see another further right Republican who doesn't have union support or other liberal leaners in his corner win Pennsylvania as of now. That can change and if Obama continues to screw around, a Santorum style candidate will have a great chance at winning, but as I see it now, it will be hard. Either way, one of us will be looking back at this and feel foolish.

If Toomey or even Santorum primary Specter, beat him and win the seat, Phil can bump this a la BRTD and say "LOL."
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Smash255
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« Reply #54 on: February 12, 2009, 03:25:57 pm »

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

Would they rather Specter in the seat or Schwartz?

I don't know why you keep doing the same routine with me, Smash. Give it a rest.

Oh I think he asked a good question.  Specter at least votes with the GOP a fair bit of the time.   

It's the same old rhetoric that you spew, too. "Specter or automatic Dem pickup!" Give it a rest.

Do the math....

Yeah, like I said, I've been through the same routine with you for years now, Smash. Here's "the math"...

1 Democrat runs for office + 1 Republican + 3 other kind of nutty people = AN AMAZING DEM WIN!



If the most Bush could muster outside the SE is a 9 point victory how is Tommey going to basically double that margin and put up a 16-18 point victory outside the SE?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #55 on: February 12, 2009, 05:14:29 pm »


If the most Bush could muster outside the SE is a 9 point victory how is Tommey going to basically double that margin and put up a 16-18 point victory outside the SE?

Let's entertain these ideas, Smash:

- Turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm election year.

- Bush was very polarizing. Believe it or not, Toomey isn't that polarizing. His focus on fiscal issues could lure in enough moderates in the SE.

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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #56 on: February 12, 2009, 06:32:57 pm »

keep in mind pennsylvania is a deep blue state. primary specter? why not primary snowe and collins while you're at it.

Wouldn't say "deep" blue yet.  If Obama screws up badly, I'll have to admit maybe someone like Toomey has a chance on fiscal issues even in a General.  PA is a weird state and can swing fast.  The odds are still stacked against a Santoomey or similar candidate given a slight GOP favored year and leftward.  Santorum/Toomey supporters of a primary against Specter are taking a HUGE risk, but there is an outside chance it could payoff.
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Smash255
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« Reply #57 on: February 12, 2009, 07:01:32 pm »


If the most Bush could muster outside the SE is a 9 point victory how is Tommey going to basically double that margin and put up a 16-18 point victory outside the SE?

Let's entertain these ideas, Smash:

- Turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm election year.

- Bush was very polarizing. Believe it or not, Toomey isn't that polarizing. His focus on fiscal issues could lure in enough moderates in the SE.



Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

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Lunar
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« Reply #58 on: February 12, 2009, 07:03:28 pm »

Typically Republicans turn out in slightly better numbers during mid-terms, is that not true in Pennsylvania? I could believe it because of Union and machine efforts.
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« Reply #59 on: February 12, 2009, 07:30:07 pm »

Typically Republicans turn out in slightly better numbers during mid-terms, is that not true in Pennsylvania? I could believe it because of Union and machine efforts.


In some cases yes.  But I would tend to think the areas where you are most likely to see the least dropoff from general to midterm is the higher educated areas.  Suburban Philly.
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« Reply #60 on: February 12, 2009, 07:37:55 pm »

Typically Republicans turn out in slightly better numbers during mid-terms, is that not true in Pennsylvania? I could believe it because of Union and machine efforts.


In some cases yes.  But I would tend to think the areas where you are most likely to see the least dropoff from general to midterm is the higher educated areas.  Suburban Philly.

what about the black people
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #61 on: February 12, 2009, 08:17:28 pm »

Everytime I see this thread it reminds me of the end the of the movie, Scarface.


In all seriousness without Toomey it will be more difficult to primary Specter. What we are looking for is a Conservative from the Southeast. The obvious choice would be Bruce Castor. However he might be more interested in the Lt. Governorship and although its nothing compared to the Senate there is a much better chance of winning especially if its a Corbett-Castor matchup then having to first primary a long term incumbent, followed by a run in a much more partisan race then Gov/Lt. Gov.

A second choice would be former State House Speaker Dennis O'Brian. How conservative he is is a question I will leave for Phil to answer. Whether he would dare take on the daunting specter of a Senate race is also something he could better answer.

Thirdly back when Pat Meehan was all Phil kept talking about in terms of the Governorship he mentioned as a possible Lt. Gov candidate State Senator John Pippy. Seeing as how the west has no important elected offical save for Atty Gen Corbett and Wagner(I am forgetting his position right now), they usually would like to have some people higher up the food chain like a Governor or a Senator. Again the question must be asked. Does Pippy have what it takes to challenge Specter and would he do it? His chances would be better then Toomey's in both primary and general cause he has a larger base and Santorum's in the general  cause he is not as hated. 

I am not predicted anything I just thought I would put these three names out there. I am mostly looking to see the opinion of Phil and Flyers on these.   
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« Reply #62 on: February 12, 2009, 09:44:56 pm »

Typically Republicans turn out in slightly better numbers during mid-terms, is that not true in Pennsylvania? I could believe it because of Union and machine efforts.


In some cases yes.  But I would tend to think the areas where you are most likely to see the least dropoff from general to midterm is the higher educated areas.  Suburban Philly.

what about the black people

It generally comes close to canceling each other out.   Philly proper made up a higher % of the total vote in 08 than it did in 06, meanwhile suburban Philly (Bucks, Chester, delaware, Montgomery) had a higher % of the total vote in 06 than it did in 08 even though it turned out high in 08 and its seen the bulk of PA's growth.  That is because the midterm turnout is already fairly high (compared to the rest of the state) in suburban Philly.

Once suburban Philly shifted from Republican to Democratic it limited the advantages the GOP has in midterms due to the lower turnout and bigger drop off from the General in heavily Democratic areas such as Philly proper.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #63 on: February 12, 2009, 10:14:47 pm »



Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.



Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.
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Smash255
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« Reply #64 on: February 12, 2009, 10:58:21 pm »



Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.



Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.


Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #65 on: February 12, 2009, 11:01:23 pm »



Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.



Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.


Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.
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Smash255
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« Reply #66 on: February 12, 2009, 11:20:43 pm »



Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.



Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.


Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.

Phil, just for kicks.  If we were to say 2010 was an average year (Obama having approvals around 50 or so), what do you think would be approx margins in Philly, Selaware, bucks, Chester & Montco in a Schwartz, Toomey match up.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #67 on: February 12, 2009, 11:22:54 pm »



Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.



Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.


Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.

Phil, just for kicks.  If we were to say 2010 was an average year (Obama having approvals around 50 or so), what do you think would be approx margins in Philly, Selaware, bucks, Chester & Montco in a Schwartz, Toomey match up.

I don't know, Smash, but guess what...

They wouldn't be OMG SCHWARTZ WITH 70% IN ALL OF THOSE!

Santorum even broke 40% in most of those counties and he's far more controversial, was running in a terrible year, etc. And don't give me "But Schwartz is from the SE" nonsense. Casey didn't really run that far behind Rendell.
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Smash255
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« Reply #68 on: February 12, 2009, 11:38:45 pm »



Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.



Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.


Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.

Phil, just for kicks.  If we were to say 2010 was an average year (Obama having approvals around 50 or so), what do you think would be approx margins in Philly, Selaware, bucks, Chester & Montco in a Schwartz, Toomey match up.

I don't know, Smash, but guess what...

They wouldn't be OMG SCHWARTZ WITH 70% IN ALL OF THOSE!

Santorum even broke 40% in most of those counties and he's far more controversial, was running in a terrible year, etc. And don't give me "But Schwartz is from the SE" nonsense. Casey didn't really run that far behind Rendell.

Statewide did Casey run that far behind Rendell?  No, but that is because Casey ran ahead of Rendell in he rest of the state, he ran way behind Rendell in the SE.

I wasn't suggesting Schwartz was going to put up Rendell type numbers in the SE, but she would clearly put up stronger numbers than Gore and Kerry did and perhaps better than what Casey did.  Yes, Toomey isn't as controversial as Santorum and 06 was a bad year, however no incumbency, Toomey is just as conservative, anger at knocking off someone well liked in the area in a Primary, Schwratz being from the SE & being a better fit for the SE than Casey counteract a few of those things
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #69 on: February 13, 2009, 12:37:15 am »


Statewide did Casey run that far behind Rendell?  No, but that is because Casey ran ahead of Rendell in he rest of the state, he ran way behind Rendell in the SE.

Rendell ran about ten points higher than Casey in Montco and Bucks, just about five points higher in Philly and about the same in Delaware county.

Quote
I wasn't suggesting Schwartz was going to put up Rendell type numbers in the SE, but she would clearly put up stronger numbers than Gore and Kerry did and perhaps better than what Casey did.  Yes, Toomey isn't as controversial as Santorum and 06 was a bad year, however no incumbency, Toomey is just as conservative, anger at knocking off someone well liked in the area in a Primary, Schwratz being from the SE & being a better fit for the SE than Casey counteract a few of those things

Uh...there was no incumbent advantage in 2006 so don't count it as a disadvantage in 2010. Toomey being just as conservative and knocking off Specter would probably be close to being offset by the fact that it's a midterm and turnout will be down (especially among Dems and Independents).

And guess what? You're a certifiable loon if you think she'd run up Casey type numbers in the rest of the state.

But, again, this is the same old game I play with you every couple of months. You're another probable OCD case. You like repeating the same arguments, asking the same questions, saying the same reasons why you're "right," etc.
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Smash255
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« Reply #70 on: February 13, 2009, 12:56:39 am »


Statewide did Casey run that far behind Rendell?  No, but that is because Casey ran ahead of Rendell in he rest of the state, he ran way behind Rendell in the SE.

Rendell ran about ten points higher than Casey in Montco and Bucks, just about five points higher in Philly and about the same in Delaware county.

Quote
I wasn't suggesting Schwartz was going to put up Rendell type numbers in the SE, but she would clearly put up stronger numbers than Gore and Kerry did and perhaps better than what Casey did.  Yes, Toomey isn't as controversial as Santorum and 06 was a bad year, however no incumbency, Toomey is just as conservative, anger at knocking off someone well liked in the area in a Primary, Schwratz being from the SE & being a better fit for the SE than Casey counteract a few of those things

Uh...there was no incumbent advantage in 2006 so don't count it as a disadvantage in 2010. Toomey being just as conservative and knocking off Specter would probably be close to being offset by the fact that it's a midterm and turnout will be down (especially among Dems and Independents).

And guess what? You're a certifiable loon if you think she'd run up Casey type numbers in the rest of the state.

But, again, this is the same old game I play with you every couple of months. You're another probable OCD case. You like repeating the same arguments, asking the same questions, saying the same reasons why you're "right," etc.


I wasn't suggesting Schwartz would put up Casey numbers in the rest of the state, I was talking about the SE.   Those type of numbers get put up in the SE it makes it virtually impossible to win statewide.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #71 on: February 13, 2009, 10:24:13 am »



I wasn't suggesting Schwartz would put up Casey numbers in the rest of the state, I was talking about the SE.   Those type of numbers get put up in the SE it makes it virtually impossible to win statewide.

And...you know I disagree!

Ok, are we done? No, probably not. You'll respond with, "But I'm right." Ok, then we're done.
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Franzl
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« Reply #72 on: February 13, 2009, 10:44:36 am »

You know Phil...I really can't stand Toomey at all....but somehow I'd like to see you get your way in Pennsylvania for once.

You've suffered so many disappoinments over the last couple of years. Wink
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« Reply #73 on: February 13, 2009, 10:57:28 am »

I kinda liked Toomey when he was first running for the U.S. House, since I liked the idea (and still do, to an extent) of a partial privatization of Social Security option.

He totally lost me when he went after Specter, though.  Charlie Dent is a phenomenal replacement (the only candidate I ever put up a lawn sign for!), and I would love for him to replace Specter.  In 2016.
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« Reply #74 on: February 13, 2009, 12:42:18 pm »

Charlie Dent is a phenomenal replacement (the only candidate I ever put up a lawn sign for!)

You were in PA 15 at some point in your life?
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