When does Specter face retribution?

[Smash255]

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

Would they rather Specter in the seat or Schwartz?

[Smash255]

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

Would they rather Specter in the seat or Schwartz?

I don't know why you keep doing the same routine with me, Smash. Give it a rest.

Oh I think he asked a good question.  Specter at least votes with the GOP a fair bit of the time.   

It's the same old rhetoric that you spew, too. "Specter or automatic Dem pickup!" Give it a rest.

Do the math....

[Smash255]

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

Would they rather Specter in the seat or Schwartz?

I don't know why you keep doing the same routine with me, Smash. Give it a rest.

Oh I think he asked a good question.  Specter at least votes with the GOP a fair bit of the time.   

It's the same old rhetoric that you spew, too. "Specter or automatic Dem pickup!" Give it a rest.

Do the math....

Yeah, like I said, I've been through the same routine with you for years now, Smash. Here's "the math"...

1 Democrat runs for office + 1 Republican + 3 other kind of nutty people = AN AMAZING DEM WIN!

If the most Bush could muster outside the SE is a 9 point victory how is Tommey going to basically double that margin and put up a 16-18 point victory outside the SE?

[Smash255]

If the most Bush could muster outside the SE is a 9 point victory how is Tommey going to basically double that margin and put up a 16-18 point victory outside the SE?

Let's entertain these ideas, Smash:

- Turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm election year.

- Bush was very polarizing. Believe it or not, Toomey isn't that polarizing. His focus on fiscal issues could lure in enough moderates in the SE.

Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

[Smash255]

Typically Republicans turn out in slightly better numbers during mid-terms, is that not true in Pennsylvania? I could believe it because of Union and machine efforts.

In some cases yes.  But I would tend to think the areas where you are most likely to see the least dropoff from general to midterm is the higher educated areas.  Suburban Philly.

[Smash255]

Typically Republicans turn out in slightly better numbers during mid-terms, is that not true in Pennsylvania? I could believe it because of Union and machine efforts.

In some cases yes.  But I would tend to think the areas where you are most likely to see the least dropoff from general to midterm is the higher educated areas.  Suburban Philly.

what about the black people

It generally comes close to canceling each other out.   Philly proper made up a higher % of the total vote in 08 than it did in 06, meanwhile suburban Philly (Bucks, Chester, delaware, Montgomery) had a higher % of the total vote in 06 than it did in 08 even though it turned out high in 08 and its seen the bulk of PA's growth.  That is because the midterm turnout is already fairly high (compared to the rest of the state) in suburban Philly.

Once suburban Philly shifted from Republican to Democratic it limited the advantages the GOP has in midterms due to the lower turnout and bigger drop off from the General in heavily Democratic areas such as Philly proper.

[Smash255]

Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.

Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

[Smash255]

Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.

Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.

Phil, just for kicks.  If we were to say 2010 was an average year (Obama having approvals around 50 or so), what do you think would be approx margins in Philly, Selaware, bucks, Chester & Montco in a Schwartz, Toomey match up.

[Smash255]

Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.

Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.

Phil, just for kicks.  If we were to say 2010 was an average year (Obama having approvals around 50 or so), what do you think would be approx margins in Philly, Selaware, bucks, Chester & Montco in a Schwartz, Toomey match up.

I don't know, Smash, but guess what...

They wouldn't be OMG SCHWARTZ WITH 70% IN ALL OF THOSE!

Santorum even broke 40% in most of those counties and he's far more controversial, was running in a terrible year, etc. And don't give me "But Schwartz is from the SE" nonsense. Casey didn't really run that far behind Rendell.

Statewide did Casey run that far behind Rendell?  No, but that is because Casey ran ahead of Rendell in he rest of the state, he ran way behind Rendell in the SE.

I wasn't suggesting Schwartz was going to put up Rendell type numbers in the SE, but she would clearly put up stronger numbers than Gore and Kerry did and perhaps better than what Casey did.  Yes, Toomey isn't as controversial as Santorum and 06 was a bad year, however no incumbency, Toomey is just as conservative, anger at knocking off someone well liked in the area in a Primary, Schwratz being from the SE & being a better fit for the SE than Casey counteract a few of those things

[Smash255]

Statewide did Casey run that far behind Rendell?  No, but that is because Casey ran ahead of Rendell in he rest of the state, he ran way behind Rendell in the SE.

Rendell ran about ten points higher than Casey in Montco and Bucks, just about five points higher in Philly and about the same in Delaware county.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh...there was no incumbent advantage in 2006 so don't count it as a disadvantage in 2010. Toomey being just as conservative and knocking off Specter would probably be close to being offset by the fact that it's a midterm and turnout will be down (especially among Dems and Independents).

And guess what? You're a certifiable loon if you think she'd run up Casey type numbers in the rest of the state.

But, again, this is the same old game I play with you every couple of months. You're another probable OCD case. You like repeating the same arguments, asking the same questions, saying the same reasons why you're "right," etc.

I wasn't suggesting Schwartz would put up Casey numbers in the rest of the state, I was talking about the SE.   Those type of numbers get put up in the SE it makes it virtually impossible to win statewide.

[Smash255]

I wasn't suggesting Schwartz would put up Casey numbers in the rest of the state, I was talking about the SE.   Those type of numbers get put up in the SE it makes it virtually impossible to win statewide.

And...you know I disagree!

Ok, are we done? No, probably not. You'll respond with, "But I'm right." Ok, then we're done.

17 point victory needed in the rest of the state including Pittsburgh when all Bush could muster was 9,  yeah thats going to happen.....

How many times do you need to overestimate Republican strength in your own state before you get it....

[Smash255]

Snowe, Collins and Specter need to be primaried.

Thanks for 3 senate pickups

[Smash255]

Snowe, Collins and Specter need to be primaried.

Please include the appropriate disclaimer to that message to comply with FEC regulations:

"This message is brought to you by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and is not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee."

I wonder if Specter had Kerry's campaign put some disclaimer on their infamous joint yard signs.

I wasn't suggesting Schwartz would put up Casey numbers in the rest of the state, I was talking about the SE.   Those type of numbers get put up in the SE it makes it virtually impossible to win statewide.

And...you know I disagree!

Ok, are we done? No, probably not. You'll respond with, "But I'm right." Ok, then we're done.

17 point victory needed in the rest of the state including Pittsburgh when all Bush could muster was 9,  yeah thats going to happen.....

How many times do you need to overestimate Republican strength in your own state before you get it....

Yes, Smash. Absolutely. The Dems will continue to dominate here for the rest of time mainly because you are using some faulty math (not accounting for turnout, change in attitude, etc.).

Run along now, child. You got every last talking point in.

Yes Phil because all of sudden the residents of SEPA are going to wake up one day and become arch conservatives.....

I'm not saying things will always be the same, however that doesn't change the fact that the current dynamics of the state make electing an arch conservative to a top tier position like that is very difficult

[Smash255]

UI'd like to see him and the two broads from maine drummed out of the party.  Not just for supporting the socialist big spending bill but for constantly opposing the right to life -- which is against the official party platform. 

Thank you for the Senate seat pickups.

[Smash255]

UI'd like to see him and the two broads from maine drummed out of the party. 

Me too.  62 Senators is way better than 59.

When are the 2 from ME ever going to vote with us?  Hardly ever, so why do they matter.  I think we could keep Specter's seat a Republican seat.

Would you rather those who vote with you 40-50% of the time or less than 10% of the time??