Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[TeePee4Prez]

You'd vote for Torsella over Specter?  You do know he's pro-choice.

...

You do know that's not my only area of disagreement with Specter, right?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If she's Specter's only challenger, yes, she could. That won't be the case though.

I know that.  I did think it was a major issue however.  IIRC, Torsella was fairly pro-labor as well.  If it's Torsella vs. Specter.. DRUM ROLL PLEASE.... me and you will be in agreement on a major election for what's it now the 3rd time?  I also think this would be the 1st non-mayoral election we agree on as well.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, ok, so this is my little ancedote for today.    Note - I am in no way saying that this is widespread.

I was at my Aunt and Uncle's house (they live just outside of Allentown in Toomey's old district) for a family function today and Specter was mentioned. My Maternal Grandfather, who is a year Specter's senior so he's obviously very familiar with Specter's career, is a registered Democrat (but total DINO - social conservative, devout Catholic, Wall Street Journal reader) and has been for his entire life. He and my Grandmother remain Dems for "cosmetic purposes" since they live in South Philly.

Anyway, he approached me about Specter. He was so happy talking about how he was in trouble. Then he told me something I thought I'd never hear - he wants to switch to vote against him. I was so happy and told him that I'd get him everything he needs in a year and then I'd switch him back. He stopped me and said he wanted to remain a Republican and my Grandmother can remain a Dem, saying that that's how the Dems play the game here (switching Republicans for their primaries) so he's basically giving them a dose of their own medicine.

Now, like I said, this won't be widespread but I bet Toomey's campaign gets a decent amount of switch overs by conservative Dems out west.

Then my Aunt's Father in law chimes in about Specter. My Uncle's family is Pennsylvania Dutch and uber conservative so it wasn't a shock when he said he wants Specter out. However, he insisted that it would still be tough since Specter is still working hard for support. He cited how Specter is known for his town halls in every county specifically mentioning how he's visible in the county where they vacation (Potter county in central PA. One of the most conservative in the state that went for Arlen big time in 2004 because of Bush and Santorum's orders). I acknowledged that but it's clearly not enough. The people love those town halls and love not being forgotten but they're pissed at the guy and those town hall meetings are the least he could ever do for them.

He was excited about Toomey, too. They've been in the Lehigh Valley for decades so they remember him as the Congressman. I wasn't that excited about much that he said because I know how he feels about this stuff but it was great to hear him and my Grandpop so fired up.

[TeePee4Prez]

Ok, ok, so this is my little ancedote for today.    Note - I am in no way saying that this is widespread.

I was at my Aunt and Uncle's house (they live just outside of Allentown in Toomey's old district) for a family function today and Specter was mentioned. My Maternal Grandfather, who is a year Specter's senior so he's obviously very familiar with Specter's career, is a registered Democrat (but total DINO - social conservative, devout Catholic, Wall Street Journal reader) and has been for his entire life. He and my Grandmother remain Dems for "cosmetic purposes" since they live in South Philly.

Anyway, he approached me about Specter. He was so happy talking about how he was in trouble. Then he told me something I thought I'd never hear - he wants to switch to vote against him. I was so happy and told him that I'd get him everything he needs in a year and then I'd switch him back. He stopped me and said he wanted to remain a Republican and my Grandmother can remain a Dem, saying that that's how the Dems play the game here (switching Republicans for their primaries) so he's basically giving them a dose of their own medicine.

Now, like I said, this won't be widespread but I bet Toomey's campaign gets a decent amount of switch overs by conservative Dems out west.

Then my Aunt's Father in law chimes in about Specter. My Uncle's family is Pennsylvania Dutch and uber conservative so it wasn't a shock when he said he wants Specter out. However, he insisted that it would still be tough since Specter is still working hard for support. He cited how Specter is known for his town halls in every county specifically mentioning how he's visible in the county where they vacation (Potter county in central PA. One of the most conservative in the state that went for Arlen big time in 2004 because of Bush and Santorum's orders). I acknowledged that but it's clearly not enough. The people love those town halls and love not being forgotten but they're pissed at the guy and those town hall meetings are the least he could ever do for them.

He was excited about Toomey, too. They've been in the Lehigh Valley for decades so they remember him as the Congressman. I wasn't that excited about much that he said because I know how he feels about this stuff but it was great to hear him and my Grandpop so fired up.

Those types of Dems would never Arlen Specter Republicans, or anywhere close to begin with.  I think I mentioned the "cosmetic Dems" or something to the tune of Democrats being so because of their union affiliation or "to get things done with a politician faster" in a previous post. 

I think the past 8 years in the state of Pennsylvania almost realized the full realignment of conservative Dems to the GOP and liberal Republicans to the Dems.  We are starting to resemble California more politically not so much in terms of overall politics, but the polarizing alignment- Central Valley and OC as GOP and the Bay Area/LA as Democratic.  The Bay Area from what I've read has it's Montco/Bucks like areas that used to be heavily Republican now Democratic.  You will not see too many more Bob Casey Democrats or Barb Hafer Republicans (oh wait, she switched!) in the state anymore. 

[bullmoose88]

I think the past 8 years in the state of Pennsylvania almost realized the full realignment of conservative Dems to the GOP and liberal Republicans to the Dems. 

Never!  Yarrr

[Keystone Phil]

He says that the announcement will be soon - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Luksik_in_Shapiro_still_mulling_run_for_Senate.html

I bet he's in.


As for the Tribune article, a big LOL in their direction - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/s_617120.html


Turnout also helps Specter. Larger-than-normal turnout staved off Toomey's surge in their 2004 primary battle.

Oddly, Pennsylvania's famed "T" (the 30 conservative, rural counties across the top and down the center of the state) voted for Specter over Toomey. Contrary to conservative legend, Specter did not earn that vote because President Bush and Pennsylvania's other GOP senator, Rick Santorum, campaigned for him; he won there because he reminded voters of the results he'd brought them.


Are they really that biased and/or blind? As I mentioned before, the voters in those counties know that Specter keeps in touch with them and brings them all kinds of goodies. However, you have to be crazy to think that he'd win those counties with landslide margins with high turnout without Bush and Santorum in 2004. I love how the article simply says, "contrary to conservative legend..." and then only backs up their point with, "they remember Specter's hard work for them."

[TeePee4Prez]

I think the past 8 years in the state of Pennsylvania almost realized the full realignment of conservative Dems to the GOP and liberal Republicans to the Dems.

Never!  Yarrr

You are in a much clearer minority that this point.  If only you could go back to the 1980s when you had big hair and lots of liberal suburban Republicans and Bob Casey's in the Commonwealth.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/24/specter-to-oppose-cloture_n_178571.html

Specter will vote against cloture for the EFCA. And there goes the only group of people that still supported this idiot.

[Holmes]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/24/specter-to-oppose-cloture_n_178571.html

Specter will vote against cloture for the EFCA. And there goes the only group of people that still supported this idiot.

Another Democratic senator for us...

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/24/specter-to-oppose-cloture_n_178571.html

Specter will vote against cloture for the EFCA. And there goes the only group of people that still supported this idiot.

He's definitely not switching parties now... he probably would've been smart and voted for it and see if the unions would switch members for him. He won't win with the current makeup of the PA GOP now.

[Keystone Phil]

Haha, nice try, Arlen.

Oh, by the way, I forgot the mention...

When discussing Specter with my Aunt's Father in law, he felt the need to bring up Casey. His comment? "And this Casey guy...you never hear from him!"

[Keystone Phil]

....Will not have an affect on his decision to run - http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/03/24/toomey-still-in.aspx

[True Democrat]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/24/specter-to-oppose-cloture_n_178571.html

Specter will vote against cloture for the EFCA. And there goes the only group of people that still supported this idiot.

Now I'm more likely to vote for him.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/24/specter-to-oppose-cloture_n_178571.html

Specter will vote against cloture for the EFCA. And there goes the only group of people that still supported this idiot.

Now I'm more likely to vote for him.

Proud member of the 35-40%?

[TeePee4Prez]

U.S. Sen. (Insert here) (D-PA, 2011-2017)

If Arlen votes against EFCA and wins the primary, his union support will go down and would lose the General anyway.  Should have taken Biden's advise.  Happy retirement Arlen!

[Keystone Phil]

U.S. Sen. (Insert here) (D-PA, 2011-2017)

Please stop doing this. Add something substantive or just keep the usual partisan hackery to yourself.

[TeePee4Prez]

Do you think Arlen would pull out of a primary if he votes against EFCA?  Arlen has a weird way of surviving sometimes.  His swaying sometimes irritates me as well, but there are times I question whether he does it for the best interest of the state or grandstanding.

[Keystone Phil]

Do you think Arlen would pull out of a primary if he votes against EFCA?  Arlen has a weird way of surviving sometimes.  His swaying sometimes irritates me as well, but there are times I question whether he does it for the best interest of the state or grandstanding.

Do you really think, after all of his antics about possibly switching parties and his blatant flip flopping on Card Check, that this guy can possibly fool Republican voters here?

He was in trouble before any of this stuff. The numbers aren't there for him anymore. The big name backers aren't there for him anymore.

I will never doubt that Specter works his ass off for this state. I just disagree with him as to what is best and, yes, a lot of it is grandstanding. This guy must really be losing it if he thinks his decision to be against Card Check will lead Republicans to bow in his presence. We've had enough for a long time but these recent moves are the reason why this won't even be close. Do you realize the amount of amo that Toomey has just from the past two months?

Here's how Specter survives - Toomey suddenly comes out as a leftist and kicks some puppies in the face during a televised debate with Specter and Luksik. He then splits the conservative vote with Luksik and Specter just barely survives.

Seriously, guys, he's finished. This isn't like the Presidency. There won't be some major events that will change the well established opinions that we have of the guy. 66% of PA Republicans want someone new while only 24% said they'd back Specter. Those aren't bad numbers; those are "Yes, you really are entering retirment, Arlen" numbers.

[TeePee4Prez]

Do you think Arlen would pull out of a primary if he votes against EFCA?  Arlen has a weird way of surviving sometimes.  His swaying sometimes irritates me as well, but there are times I question whether he does it for the best interest of the state or grandstanding.

Do you really think, after all of his antics about possibly switching parties and his blatant flip flopping on Card Check, that this guy can possibly fool Republican voters here?

He was in trouble before any of this stuff. The numbers aren't there for him anymore. The big name backers aren't there for him anymore.

I will never doubt that Specter works his ass off for this state. I just disagree with him as to what is best and, yes, a lot of it is grandstanding. This guy must really be losing it if he thinks his decision to be against Card Check will lead Republicans to bow in his presence. We've had enough for a long time but these recent moves are the reason why this won't even be close. Do you realize the amount of amo that Toomey has just from the past two months?

Here's how Specter survives - Toomey suddenly comes out as a leftist and kicks some puppies in the face during a televised debate with Specter and Luksik. He then splits the conservative vote with Luksik and Specter just barely survives.

Seriously, guys, he's finished. This isn't like the Presidency. There won't be some major events that will change the well established opinions that we have of the guy. 66% of PA Republicans want someone new while only 24% said they'd back Specter. Those aren't bad numbers; those are "Yes, you really are entering retirment, Arlen" numbers.

Of course I know the hardcore conservatives won't like Specter, but then again like I said, he's a survivor.  I've met and worked for older men like him that won't quit for anything despite what they're dealing with and somehow they'll find a way.  Arlen just reminds me of such a person and it's scary for both of us for that matter. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Toomey starts out leading Specter by 14 
By Aaron Blake 
Posted: 03/25/09 08:34 AM [ET] 

Sen. Arlen Specter’s decision to come out against the Employee Free Choice Act might have come at just the right time.
 
The Pennsylvania Republican trails former Rep. Pat Toomey by double digits in the first head-to-head poll of their ensuing primary match-up.

The Quinnipiac poll, released Wednesday, shows the embattled Specter behind Toomey, 41-27, even though 73 percent of Republicans say they don’t know enough about the challenger to form an opinion.
 
The poll comes on the heels of Specter’s announcement Tuesday that he would vote against cloture on the union-organizing Employee Free Choice Act, or card-check. Specter’s decision will likely kill the bill for this Congress, as he was a pivotal vote, and should help his standing with some conservatives.
 
The Quinnipiac poll was conducted before Specter’s announcement Tuesday afternoon. It echoes a Susquehanna poll from last month that showed 66 percent of GOP voters want someone new and only 26 percent would vote to keep Specter.
 
Pennsylvania’s GOP primary includes only Republican voters, thought Specter is working to change that.
 
Voters in his own party gave him a 47 percent unfavorable rating and a 29 percent favorable rating, but independents gave him 45 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable. Democrats were the most favorable of all, at 60 percent.
 
Specter was one of three Senate Republicans to support the stimulus package, a deeply unpopular stance with Republican voters. Seventy percent disagreed with it, while just 25 percent approved.
 
"Pennsylvania Republicans are so unhappy with Sen. Specter's vote for President Barack Obama's stimulus package and so-called pork-barrel spending that they are voting for a former congressman they hardly know," said Clay Richards, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s University Polling Institute.
 
The Quinnipiac poll also spells bad things for Specter if he makes the general election, with just 31 percent of those voters saying they would vote for him and 33 percent saying they would vote for an unnamed Democrat.
 
Specter even loses independents in a generic general-election match-up, 35-23.

 

[Keystone Phil]

As already stated in the article above, Toomey leads by 14 in a Quinnipiac poll...

Specter - 27%
Toomey - 41%

47% Unfavorable, 29% Favorable among Republicans and only a 45% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable rating overall.

41% are against his re-election while 38% are for it. Funny enough, Republicans and Independents are against it while Dems are for it.

General Election - Specter - 31%  Generic Dem - 33%  (Maybe we can stop this nonsense about how Specter is a lock in the General)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1280



However, Franklin and Marshall see it differently...

Specter - 33%
Toomey - 18%
Luksik - 2%
Undecided - 44%


http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar09_1.pdf

Now I haven't been the biggest fan of Quinnipiac but they're better than F&M. Either way, it's bad news for Specter to start out in the high 20s/low 30s. Plus, we know who the undecided voters will break for. Luksik is going to be stuck in the single digits because of lack of funding and big name backers so no real chance at her playing spoiler.

By the way, this is also good news for Toomey since the public has seemed to have forgotten him (which is to be expected). I expected a little better than 41% (and 18%) but when you think about it, the guy hasn't been in a role where the people would see him a great deal. Once the primary voters remember him, he'll be trouncing Arlen.

Of course I know the hardcore conservatives won't like Specter, but then again like I said, he's a survivor.  I've met and worked for older men like him that won't quit for anything despite what they're dealing with and somehow they'll find a way.  Arlen just reminds me of such a person and it's scary for both of us for that matter. 

Ok but the "he's a survivor" argument doesn't work when everything is against him now. It's not just hardcore conservatives against him, Flyers. Mainstream conservatives and even moderates have had enough. Take a look at the polls.

[Keystone Phil]

As already stated in the article above, Toomey leads by 14 in a Quinnipiac poll...

Specter - 27%
Toomey - 41%

47% Unfavorable, 29% Favorable among Republicans and only a 45% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable rating overall.

41% are against his re-election while 38% are for it. Funny enough, Republicans and Independents are against it while Dems are for it.

General Election - Specter - 31%  Generic Dem - 33%  (Maybe we can stop this nonsense about how Specter is a lock in the General

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1280

Other key findings...


Voters say 52 - 35 percent that Specter's seniority in Washington is not a reason to reelect him in 2010.

Rendell approval rating - 50% to 38%

Casey approval rating - 52% to 23%

It's hilarious how more people are unsure or don't care about Casey than disapprove yet he barely gets above 50% approval. Oh, Pennsylvania...

[TeePee4Prez]

As already stated in the article above, Toomey leads by 14 in a Quinnipiac poll...

Specter - 27%
Toomey - 41%

47% Unfavorable, 29% Favorable among Republicans and only a 45% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable rating overall.

41% are against his re-election while 38% are for it. Funny enough, Republicans and Independents are against it while Dems are for it.

General Election - Specter - 31%  Generic Dem - 33%  (Maybe we can stop this nonsense about how Specter is a lock in the General

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1280

Other key findings...


Voters say 52 - 35 percent that Specter's seniority in Washington is not a reason to reelect him in 2010.

Rendell approval rating - 50% to 38%

Casey approval rating - 52% to 23%

It's hilarious how more people are unsure or don't care about Casey than disapprove yet he barely gets above 50% approval. Oh, Pennsylvania...

You and I both know Casey's approvals are because of his father.  I would actually vote Neutral if asked.  And I've always said other than the pro-life overzealousness, Bob Sr. did a hell of a lot of good for the state. Bob Jr.- what has he done?  He sounds bland and the only good I can think of him is he beat Rick Santorum.  I really think Joe Hoeffel would have done more than Casey, but we can't go back.

[Keystone Phil]

You and I both know Casey's approvals are because of his father.  I would actually vote Neutral if asked.  And I've always said other than the pro-life overzealousness, Bob Sr. did a hell of a lot of good for the state. Bob Jr.- what has he done?  He sounds bland and the only good I can think of him is he beat Rick Santorum.  I really think Joe Hoeffel would have done more than Casey, but we can't go back.

Eh, I've always said that at least someone like Hoeffel, Schwartz, etc. would have worked for the job and would have fought to stay in office.

I hope Junior gets caught up in a terrible year sometime and we see the end of his political career.

Oh, and if I ever got called in one of these approval rating polls, I would let out a loud laugh and then say, "Strongly, strongly, strongly disapprove" when asked about Casey.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Funny enough, Republicans and Independents are against it while Dems are for it.

-GASP- SECRET DEM[/hysteria]

[Keystone Phil]

Funny enough, Republicans and Independents are against it while Dems are for it.

-GASP- SECRET DEM[/hysteria]

Or my point is that it's amazing how he isn't winning Independents but wins Dems in a General against another Democrat.

Enough with your damn trolling. You're really annoying. Don't like the discussion? Don't post here. Bye.