The Dark Horse(Election Night-2012)

[Nixon in '80]

Senator Burr moves a bit away from the right, towards the center... and picks Michele Bachmann?

Palin 2.0

[Josh/Devilman88]

The last debate took place on Oct 30th. Pres. Obama came out and nailed it. He did and said all the right things, over night this race became close again. Sen. Burr and Pres. Obama both campaigned up to the very last day. And going into this election Pres. Obama turn around what looked like a blow out to a very close race. Sen. Burr had a couple of Joe Biden moments where he put his foot in his mouth.

RCP Map day of election: Nov 6, 2012

[Josh/Devilman88]

Election Night 2012

And welcome to election night 2012! It is not 7:00 pm EST and the polls have fully closed in IN and KY and just closed in GA, SC, VA, VT and in most of FL(we will not be able to make any calls in FL until all polls close). But we do have a few states to call.

We can call SC, GA and KY all for Sen. Burr



We can call VT for Pres. Obama.

Burr: 33
Obama: 3
To close to call: 24

------------

IN: 40% in
Burr: 51%
Obama: 48%

VA: 5% in
Burr: 50%
Obama: 48%

[Josh/Devilman88]

Election Night 2012

And it is now 7:30pm EST and we have a call to make.

We can call WV for Sen. Burr

Burr: 38
Obama: 3
To close to call: 42

------------

IN: 55% in
Burr: 49%
Obama: 48%

VA: 32% in
Burr: 51%
Obama: 47%

OH: 4% in
Obama: 52%
Burr: 47%

[Psychic Octopus]

great TL, sorry I have not commented on it. I have been reading it, and it is wonderful. I wonder if Barry can produce a win?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Election Night 2012

It is now 8:00pm EST and we have some calls to make!



We can call TN, MS, AL and OK all for Sen. Burr!


We can call MA, 1st CD of ME, MD, DC and IL for Pres. Obama!

Burr: 71
Obama: 48
TCTC: 131

---------------------------------------------

IN: 70% in
Obama: 51%
Burr: 48%

VA: 52% in
Burr: 52%
Obama: 47%

OH: 41% in
Obama: 50%
Burr: 49%

FL: 38% in
Burr: 53%
Obama: 46%

[tmthforu94]

I can't see Obama winning Indiana. The 2008 election was because Obama pumped millions of dollars here, while McCain didn't. I don't think there would be a repeat even with a fairly good Obama administration.

Great job though. I'm on the edge of my seat!

[Josh/Devilman88]

I can't see Obama winning Indiana. The 2008 election was because Obama pumped millions of dollars here, while McCain didn't. I don't think there would be a repeat even with a fairly good Obama administration.

Great job though. I'm on the edge of my seat!

Well Obama's VP is a very very popular IN senator.

[tmthforu94]

I can't see Obama winning Indiana. The 2008 election was because Obama pumped millions of dollars here, while McCain didn't. I don't think there would be a repeat even with a fairly good Obama administration.

Great job though. I'm on the edge of my seat!

Well Obama's VP is a very very popular IN senator.

Ehh, I didn't think about that...
If he was exposed more, he wouldn't be as popular. Most Hoosiers think he is a conservative, like he was as governor. He's really swung left though.

[Hash]

Why is some other guy continuing Josh's timeline? Or is this guy a sockpuppet for Josh?

[tmthforu94]

Why is some other guy continuing Josh's timeline? Or is this guy a sockpuppet for Josh?

It's just too tempting to avoid doing so.

That's annoying...

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Why is some other guy continuing Josh's timeline? Or is this guy a sockpuppet for Josh?

It's just too tempting to avoid doing so.

That's annoying...

For once I agree with tmthforu94.

pbrower2a should not try to insert his own predictions into josh4bush's scenario.

[pbrower2a]

Having not been extended for over a month I thought that it had been abandoned. If you so insist, then I can remove my insertions.   

[tmthforu94]

Why this new timeline by pbrower2a is extremely annoying...
1. You didn't start it. Let the person who has put hours into this finish it.
2. You are throwing all polling the original timeline creator made, and doing it your way.
3. You are biased towards President Obama, and are calling states that the original poster had as a "toss-up" straight to Obama, and saying Burr safety states such as Texas are toss-ups.

[Hash]

Why this new timeline by pbrower2a is extremely annoying...
1. You didn't start it. Let the person who has put hours into this finish it.
2. You are throwing all polling the original timeline creator made, and doing it your way.
3. You are biased towards President Obama, and are calling states that the original poster had as a "toss-up" straight to Obama, and saying Burr safety states such as Texas are toss-ups.

Agreed. I wouldn't like it if somebody decided to continue my Alternate France timeline just because they feel like it and completely change the point of it.

[aaaa2222]

That is probably why the polls were wrong in some states.

The original final polling map before election night in this timeline was the following...

This is a different map from the one that we are seeing come into form with this new person writing the timeline. This map shows states like Texas, Nebraska, and South Dakota as strong republican. SD and NE are still too close to call. TX is too close to call even with a slight Obama lead.

I also noticed that on the final polling map before the election night, New Hampshire was too close to call. Josh4Bush had not called New Hampshire when he stopped posting in this timeline and the new writer comes right in and calls it for Obama.

I think that the new writer just wants for his own party to win and to win big. But, their are some questionable factors. How does Obama loose Missouri but have a slight lead in Texas? How has Ohio still not been called for Obama but Texas has a slight lead for Obama?

Before continuing to write this timeline, the new writer should have atleast read through the thread. Seeing that his map does not resemble the map of the final polling in many ways.

I could write a better timeline than this and I think that I just might do so.

No, past experience has shown that you CANNOT write a better timeline than this.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I should have completed this before I stop posting, could you please remove your maps please.

This is the results I was going to go with:

Burr wins.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Agreed. I wouldn't like it if somebody decided to continue my Alternate France timeline just because they feel like it and completely change the point of it.

Thirded.  If someone else had tried to continue my TR or JFK TL's, I'd have hunted them down.  People put a lot of effort into these timelines, and other people shouldn't take them over.

[pbrower2a]

I should have completed this before I stop posting, could you please remove your maps please.

I removed the maps and much of my analysis. I am glad that you are back. I suggest that you remove your "final intention" because it is itself anticlimactic, taking away any drama. You will get a final result at the end, too, and that will be worth seeing.

Polls can be wrong not so much because of bias but because of over-reactions to what one sees as potential bias. They may be designed to remove the effects of gut feelings and above all else, what looks like political spin. In 2008 one pollster's category of "likely voter" precluded anyone too young to have voted in a prior Presidential election, which would have been anyone born after November X 1986 (eighteen years before Election Day, 2004) even if that person showed signs of involvement in the campaign (that is a very likely voter if over 18 on election day!). The Democrats were telling people that the youngest voters were going to vote heavily Democratic, and in unusually large numbers. It is also easy to undercount people who might use cell phones instead of landline phones and persons who might think the call from a pollster a wrong number because the speaker or taped voice is speaking in English.

The scenario looks like a close election except for one thing: that many states that were not automatic calls in 2008 are automatic calls in your scenario. Dave Leip has the 2008 timeline, and I admit using it as a control, and the only ways in which such states as Georgia and West Virginia could go so quickly to Burr is if Burr is ahead by 25% or so in those states, which seems unlikely. I don't disagree that they wouldn't so go this time, but only if some northern states are even bigger blowouts.