Rasmussen Says Specter May Have Made a Mistake

[opebo]

Christ, that's nearly two years away.  Nobody will care - a, if the economy's doing well, or b, if it is doing badly we'll have had more stimulus bills anyway (next year spring/summer). 

People just don't care that much about these silly little spending bills.

[Lunar]

Christ, that's nearly two years away.  Nobody will care - a, if the economy's doing well, or b, if it is doing badly we'll have had more stimulus bills anyway (next year spring/summer). 

People just don't care that much about these silly little spending bills.

Specter barely squeaked by 51%-49% in 2004, thanks largely to two big conservatives, Santorum and Bush, strongly endorsing him.  What did those people in 2004 care about?

[Keystone Phil]

Christ, that's nearly two years away.  Nobody will care - a, if the economy's doing well, or b, if it is doing badly we'll have had more stimulus bills anyway (next year spring/summer). 

People just don't care that much about these silly little spending bills.

Specter barely squeaked by 51%-49% in 2004, thanks largely to two big conservatives, Santorum and Bush, strongly endorsing him. 

...with Specter's RINO base (mostly in the Philly suburbs) still registered Republican. That's certainly changed.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think that in the ensuing general the Republican will most likely be beaten by a moderate Democrat. :-D  And yes those are high hopes lol

Nominate Wagner and even in a good year for the GOP, I'll likely give the race to the Dems against a conservative or even against Specter. That being said, Wagner keeps saying he's leaning more towards the Gubernatorial race.

I could see a strong leftist 3rd party emerge with Wagner is the Dem nominee.  I still think the danger lies with him being too conservative to hold the Dem base together which a lot of Dems, including myself, sucked it up for Casey Jr. to see Rick Santorum out of the Senate.  I'm not so sure that will happen with Specter or even a conservative GOP nominee for that matter.  PA has changed dramatically since the Bob Casey Sr. days and the old conservative Dems are a dying breed.  That said, look for 1988-like Presidential results for PA in a Wagner-Specter matchup in the General.  I'd actually be undecided in that case and I'd have to see a debate.        I hate to sound cocky, but look at the Obama results.  We did it while losing the West, some counties we NEVER lost until now. 

If it were up to me, I say clear the field for Joe Torsella.  No surprise.  A few small things I don't agree with him on, BUT I think he holds the base and is our best chance at getting votes in the Bob Casey-esque areas of the state.  Schwartz, while a good Congresswoman and fundraiser would have a few bumps in other parts of the state, but would prevail over most candidates.  She along with Joe Sestak would be my 2nd tier choices.  Pat Murphy would be a good choice, but needs some experience and leaves a seat wide open.   

[Lunar]

Strategically, the best way to beat a liberal Republican like Specter is to fracture his base, much more important than holding your own together.  You get a pro-lifer, etc. otherwise he takes more from you than you can get from him

[Keystone Phil]

I hate to sound cocky, but look at the Obama results.  We did it while losing the West, some counties we NEVER lost until now. 

Yeah, well, not every election is going to be like 2008. Wake up.

[Lunar]

2010 is awful close to 2008 though, the numbers are very close

[TeePee4Prez]

I hate to sound cocky, but look at the Obama results.  We did it while losing the West, some counties we NEVER lost until now.

Yeah, well, not every election is going to be like 2008. Wake up.

I was pointing at the demographic shifts in the state.  A pro-life Dem might in fact have trouble holding the base this time around.  That's what I was hinting at.  Yeah, certain districts they are clearly necessary I have to admit, but statewide there maybe some base issues if Wagner were the nominee.

[Marokai Backbeat]

It's a shame that a truly decent man would be denied the nomination for doing something that he truly believed to be the right thing to do. Arlen Specter is of a noble, but dying, breed.

[Lunar]

Denied?  Please.  Arlen's in hot water because he sides with the Democrats 80% of the time.  He's pro-choice, pro-Union, pro-Obama etc.  I think the GOP is dumb to try and purge him, but let's not pretend like he's being persecuted unjustly here.  If a Democrat voted the opposite of him, say in California, casting a critical vote sinking a number of Obama's big plans, you know you would support primarying him just like Democrats support primarying Lieberman (despite Lieberman following his heart or whatever).

Of course, the larger issue for the GOP is whether a true conservative who primaries a moderate is viable in PA

[Keystone Phil]

As was stated, Specter has been disliked by conservatives in this state for years. This isn't just about the Stimulus vote. He's had this coming for a long time. He was very lucky to get by in 2004. Hopefully, we won't let it happen again.

[Verily]

Denied?  Please.  Arlen's in hot water because he sides with the Democrats 80% of the time.  He's pro-choice, pro-Union, pro-Obama etc.  I think the GOP is dumb to try and purge him, but let's not pretend like he's being persecuted unjustly here.  If a Democrat voted the opposite of him, say in California, casting a critical vote sinking a number of Obama's big plans, you know you would support primarying him just like Democrats support primarying Lieberman (despite Lieberman following his heart or whatever).

Of course, the larger issue for the GOP is whether a true conservative who primaries a moderate is viable in PA

It's more like having an equivalent in Ohio rather than California. A hardcore liberal could easily be elected in California but not so much in Ohio; a hardcore conservative could easily be elected in Texas but not so much in Pennsylvania.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Denied?  Please.  Arlen's in hot water because he sides with the Democrats 80% of the time.  He's pro-choice, pro-Union, pro-Obama etc.  I think the GOP is dumb to try and purge him, but let's not pretend like he's being persecuted unjustly here.  If a Democrat voted the opposite of him, say in California, casting a critical vote sinking a number of Obama's big plans, you know you would support primarying him just like Democrats support primarying Lieberman (despite Lieberman following his heart or whatever).

Of course, the larger issue for the GOP is whether a true conservative who primaries a moderate is viable in PA

First of all, That was an awfully forceful response. In any case, I really don't know where you got that BS statistic about he sides with Democrats 80% of the time. (I hope you were joking.)

110th Congress

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/110/senate/party-voters/

109th Congress

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/109/senate/party-voters/

108th Congress

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/108/senate/party-voters/

Seems pretty Republican to me.. Now naturally, he's no Rick Santorum, who voted with the Cons about 91.7%, 92%, 94%, 96% and so % of the time, but he's hardly a RINO or even approaching a Lincoln Chafee.

And there's a difference with Lieberman who, while Progressive on alot of issues, was generally a dick to Obama during the campaign season, just a step above calling him a traitor:

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http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/lieberman-obama-has-not-always-put-country-first/

And it's not like Specter didn't endorse McCain either, unlike alot of other Republicans who took the chance to do so.

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http://articles.lancasteronline.com/local/4/228809

Now sure, Arlen definitely has a mind of his own, but if you're going to target Specter to try to get him out of the party, you basically have to go after Collins and Snowe as well as some other Republicans who have moderate tendencies, and denounce popular Republican figures like Powell who actually did endorse Obama.

Besides, it's not like Democrats don't have Conservative Democrats in the Senate. (Ben Nelson, for instance.)

[Lunar]

80% wasn't exactly accurate, I was semi-joking.   I think a lot of rankings are deceiving though. It's the big votes that are close that what matter. Specter is clearly willing to bargain -- again I think the GOP is stupid to want so badly to purge him because it'll drive away some large percentage people who supported Specter.  Besides, while PA isn't quite like Maine, it's closer to it than any other state with GOP senators.

I'm 200%  behind the effort to purge him if a good Dem candidate emerges

[Keystone Phil]

And it's not like Specter didn't endorse McCain either, unlike alot of other Republicans who took the chance to do so.

Uh...I'm glad you're picking and choosing (or you're just totally ignorant of the situation here which is likely the case) what makes Specter loyal. He's screwed with plenty of other Republicans and Bush when he was the President. Finding some reasons why he supported McCain doesn't make up for it. And if we're just going to use one example to prove how Specter is loyal and Lieberman is a "traitor," please recall the year 2000 and Lieberman's role with the Dems. Thanks.

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Specter has done more in his career to undermine the goals of this party than any of the people that you mentioned.

[Marokai Backbeat]

And it's not like Specter didn't endorse McCain either, unlike alot of other Republicans who took the chance to do so.

Uh...I'm glad you're picking and choosing (or you're just totally ignorant of the situation here which is likely the case) what makes Specter loyal. He's screwed with plenty of other Republicans and Bush when he was the President. Finding some reasons why he supported McCain doesn't make up for it. And if we're just going to use one example to prove how Specter is loyal and Lieberman is a "traitor," please recall the year 2000 and Lieberman's role with the Dems. Thanks.

I'm not sure how pointing out his voting record and his past endorsements is picking and choosing, but alrighty.

In regards to Lieberman, my point earlier was that he routinely attacked and went after the Democratic Party and later Obama in very RNC-talking-pointy ways. Comparing the attacks on Specter and the attacks on Lieberman doesn't add up.

[Lunar]

Obviously I have like a sample size of 0 in terms of Dems comparable to Specter.  I gotta search for the closest Senator buddy yo. It'd be pretty easy to poke holes in any example I give, especially if you withdraw it from my very carefully crafted context! 


'S all good though

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not sure how pointing out his voting record and his past endorsements is picking and choosing, but alrighty.

But, as Lunar said, he screws us when we really need him and he's still fairly liberal.

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Specter has been bomb throwing in the direction of conservatives within my party for years. Just because it hasn't been nationally known/didn't happen during a Presidential campaign doesn't mean it's any better.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Who's coming to beat him?

Why Pat Toomey of course!

As much as I would like to see Specter re-elected, I doubt that will eventuate. Not due to his support of the stimulus package, but rather to retirement, something which he should have done a long time ago.

[Lunar]

I think Specter just likes power.  Being a self-proclaimed "moderate" just like Nelson gives you an incredible amount of power.  Perhaps he's willing to risk a more competitive election just for more political power

[Ogre Mage]

Specter may have made a mistake ...  but he is still in office and Santorum isn't.  Representing a swing state is tricky business, you have to pay very careful attention to be successful.  I've always thought that senators representing states like PA, OH or MO have a more difficult life than senators representing states like TX, ID or UT on one hand or MA, RI or CA on the other.  Casting votes on highly ideological issues is simply more difficult.

The potential power of being a centrist also comes with a lot of peril.

[Mint]

Specter isn't fairly liberal outside of less than a handful of social issues (abortion, affirmative action, and amnesty pretty much). On taxes, privatization, guns, school choice, foreign policy, etc. he's consistently toed the party line. Considering where he's from, he's probably the best 'conservatives' can really hope for unless they want to focus solely on goober social issues... And in many cases that's a clear losing proposition in the long term.

[Lunar]

. On taxes,guns, school choice, foreign policy, etc.

So would any Democrat that's electable in PA

[Lunar]

Specter may have made a mistake ...  but he is still in office and Santorum isn't.  Representing a swing state is tricky business, you have to pay very careful attention to be successful.  I've always thought that senators representing states like PA, OH or MO have a more difficult life than senators representing states like TX, ID or UT on one hand or MA, RI or CA on the other.  Casting votes on highly ideological issues is simply more difficult.

The potential power of being a centrist also comes with a lot of peril.

I'll tell you this, Dick Durbin gets to make a LOT more mistakes than someone normal does.  Him publicly trying to get that Republican governor before Blago a pardon, and then calling for a special election, and then retracting that...

[Marokai Backbeat]

. On taxes,guns, school choice, foreign policy, etc.

So would any Democrat that's electable in PA

Ohio is arguably more conservative than PA, and we elected a very progressive candidate to the Senate.