Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2019, 10:40:55 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2010 Elections
| | | | |-+  Closest Senate race?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Poll
Question: See above
FL   -4 (12.1%)
Some other one   -29 (87.9%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 33

Author Topic: Closest Senate race?  (Read 12605 times)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,113
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: February 07, 2009, 12:51:17 pm »

There is alot of state that could be close.
Logged
Psychic Octopus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,962
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: February 07, 2009, 01:02:57 pm »

I think Florida will be close also, and I do not think Crist will run.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,705


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: February 07, 2009, 01:32:42 pm »

Oh, well maybe Jon Porter.

He's my choice.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 41,318
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: February 07, 2009, 05:34:02 pm »

I think it will be North Carolina, Nevada, and Louisiana that are the closest. Maybe MO, OH, and NH(The three we are most likely to lose) if the GOP has a really good night. Even if Crist doesn't run Mack or Rubio should be able to pull off victory in FL by 5 or more if they have a good campaign.

Yes I didn't mention Kentucky. I still don't think Bunning will be the nominee. In which case Kentucky should go Republican by 10 points or more. The reason why he wont be the nominee is a story for another thread. 
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35,109
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.45, S: -1.57

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: February 07, 2009, 06:22:27 pm »

It'll be something else.  2010 is still a long way off, even though it doesn't seem so.
Logged
░tmthforu94░
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,717
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2009, 12:07:21 pm »

I'm going to say Ohio for now. It all depends on how Obama does the first 2 years. If he goofs, and Americans are irritated at Congress, don't be suprised if Senators like Evan Bayh, Harry Reid, or Ken Salazar getting in a heated race. I expect Republicans to put someone good up in Florida, and put some money into it. Florida will be somewhat close, but there will be elections that will be closer.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,387
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2009, 12:13:05 pm »

If Bayh could survive 2004, then I think he will have no trouble in 2010.  Of course, if Obama utterly tanks, then he might have an issue, but I think Obama falling so low that Bayh could lose is unlikely.
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2009, 04:57:32 pm »

Coburn really has his finger on the pulse of America, eh?  Salazar is really going to have a close election in 2010?
Logged
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,847
United States
P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2009, 05:01:46 pm »

It could be New Hampshire, but we really don't have a bench in the state other than Sununu.  The Dems will probably pick it up.

In Missouri, Roy Blunt could do pretty well, but I don't think he can beat the Carnahan political force.

I think things look bleak for the GOP.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,801


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 15, 2009, 10:06:38 am »

I'll say Kentucky. But who knows what'll happen 20 months from now.
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,582
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 16, 2009, 09:57:12 am »

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,305
Germany


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 16, 2009, 10:13:25 am »

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

That is only so you can bump this thread should you somehow manage to be right (p=0.001% as of now, I'd guess), correct?
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,582
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 16, 2009, 10:21:44 am »

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

That is only so you can bump this thread should you somehow manage to be right (p=0.001% as of now, I'd guess), correct?
A combination of that and the fact that there is really way to tell.  Who would have thought Virginia would be the closest 2006 race in 2004?  Maybe it isn't even Arnold running, maybe somebody will come out of the woodwork from Michigan or something
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,641
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 16, 2009, 10:38:23 am »

California 2006, 2008

Please expect 2010 to be similar.
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 16, 2009, 01:46:01 pm »

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

That is only so you can bump this thread should you somehow manage to be right (p=0.001% as of now, I'd guess), correct?
A combination of that and the fact that there is really way to tell.  Who would have thought Virginia would be the closest 2006 race in 2004?  Maybe it isn't even Arnold running, maybe somebody will come out of the woodwork from Michigan or something

Yeah Fiorina's job running HP into the ground before the board paid her 42 million dollars just to leave and never come back is really going to make us excited, and she's so good at avoiding gaffes too.   Even the most of hard core capitalists should hate her for her work she did at HP

Logged
Daniel Plainview
John P
Rookie
*
Posts: 23


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 16, 2009, 01:51:45 pm »

Most probably Florida, but New Hampshire could also be competitive
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35,109
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.45, S: -1.57

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 17, 2009, 02:54:54 am »

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

I'll give you $10 if you're right.
Logged
BetoBro
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,345
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: February 20, 2009, 03:44:37 am »

Normally, I would say my home state of Missouri where elections are always close, but Robin Carnahan will easily win this seat. She has the Carnahan name which is a resounding force throughout Missouri (her father Mel was a very popular Governor) and in 2008 she received more votes, over 1.7 million, than any candidate in the state's history. Troublesome for Roy Blunt, should he receive the GOP nomination, is that he has the tainted "Blunt" named attached. Outside of Southwest Missouri, he will not do so well, as many Missourians will probably equate him to his highly unpopular son and former Governor Matt Blunt, who had the lowest approval ratings while in office. Carnahan is definitely the favorite in Missouri. Like I said, she will lose Southwest Missouri but will rack up the numbers in St. Louis and Kansas City and Columbia, and depending on how she does in the other rural parts of the state, namely Southeast Missouri in the Lead Belt and Bootheel, she will win.

As for the closest race, my money is on Kentucky right now. Jim Bunning just narrowly won in 2004 over Lt. Gov. Don Mongiardo by 1 percent the same year that George W. Bush carried the state by 20 points. Not very impressive. If the anti-Republican sentiment continues throughout the year and carries over into 2010, Mongiardo should defeat Bunning. For Mongiardo, I'd have him bring out the big guns (Bill and Hillary Clinton, both of whom are loved in the Bluegrass State) but he has to distance himself from Obama because Kentucky voters made it loud and clear that Obama is not for them in both the primary and general election. 

Either way, it's still very early.
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: February 20, 2009, 03:49:15 am »

Valid point and welcome to the forum.  I actually disagree with all of the pundits (TheFix at WaPo, FiveThirtyEight.com) and think that Missouri is slightly more likely to switch parties than New Hampshire in 2010.  Carnahan was an institution and she's almost certainly 75% of the reason why Bond retired this year, since she was going to challenge the seat no matter who was sitting in it.

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

I'll give you $10 if you're right.

I think 10:0 odds is being too favorable here.  I think he's beyond the asymptotic line and into the infinite abyss at this point.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines