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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 144513 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: February 21, 2009, 05:14:56 am »
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Only counting potential candidates for whom there've been at least 20 shares traded (otherwise, the volume is so light that the numbers become silly):

Romney 30.0
Jindal 20.0
Pawlenty 18.9
Huckabee 16.9
Palin 13.4
Gingrich 12.0
Giuliani 10.0
Huntsman 10.0
Crist 9.9

« Last Edit: September 20, 2012, 08:52:55 am by Mr. Morden »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2009, 11:38:18 pm »
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Latest (again, only counting people for whom we've had at least 20 shares traded):

Romney 24.1
Jindal 17.0
Huckabee 13.0
Palin 11.2
Sanford 11.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Gingrich 9.5
Crist 8.0
Huntsman 8.0
Thune 6.5

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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2009, 04:20:21 am »
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I'm a little surprised Jindal's is so high after the, ya know, fiasco thing...
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2009, 03:23:49 pm »
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I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2009, 04:46:22 pm »
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I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.
40% of America love Palin. Whether they will still love her in 3 years, I don't know. I like her a lot, but I won't vote for her, because I know, that unless Obama's approval ratings are below 40%, she will lose. I would feel much more comfortable voting for Crist, even though we don't agree on some issues.
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2009, 05:23:42 pm »
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I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.
40% of America love Palin. Whether they will still love her in 3 years, I don't know. I like her a lot, but I won't vote for her, because I know, that unless Obama's approval ratings are below 40%, she will lose. I would feel much more comfortable voting for Crist, even though we don't agree on some issues.
Like I said I don't think she will end up winning the nomination, but I still think she is more likely than most potential Republican candidates at this point, many of whom probably won't run at all.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2009, 06:43:20 pm »
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I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.
40% of America love Palin. Whether they will still love her in 3 years, I don't know. I like her a lot, but I won't vote for her, because I know, that unless Obama's approval ratings are below 40%, she will lose. I would feel much more comfortable voting for Crist, even though we don't agree on some issues.
Like I said I don't think she will end up winning the nomination, but I still think she is more likely than most potential Republican candidates at this point, many of whom probably won't run at all.

To be honest, I'm not at all convinced that Palin will run either.  I'd say that, for example, Palin is probably less likely to run than Pawlenty.  But Jindal, OTOH, is *really* unlikely to run.  No way should he be as high as 17.0.  (Although, if Jindal did run, I think he'd be more likely to win the nom. than Palin.  Palin seems far more likely to self-destruct during the long primary campaign.)

Oh, and for amusement, here are the 2012 Democratic nomination odds:

Obama 85.1
Clinton 10.0
Biden 8.0

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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2009, 07:04:16 am »
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I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.
40% of America love Palin. Whether they will still love her in 3 years, I don't know. I like her a lot, but I won't vote for her, because I know, that unless Obama's approval ratings are below 40%, she will lose. I would feel much more comfortable voting for Crist, even though we don't agree on some issues.
Like I said I don't think she will end up winning the nomination, but I still think she is more likely than most potential Republican candidates at this point, many of whom probably won't run at all.

To be honest, I'm not at all convinced that Palin will run either.  I'd say that, for example, Palin is probably less likely to run than Pawlenty.  But Jindal, OTOH, is *really* unlikely to run.  No way should he be as high as 17.0.  (Although, if Jindal did run, I think he'd be more likely to win the nom. than Palin.  Palin seems far more likely to self-destruct during the long primary campaign.)

Oh, and for amusement, here are the 2012 Democratic nomination odds:

Obama 85.1
Clinton 10.0
Biden 8.0



I'd love to know how Biden was doing at intrade in March 2005 for '08.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2009, 07:23:22 am »
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I'd love to know how Biden was doing at intrade in March 2005 for '08.

Don't know about March, but in July 2005, he was in 3rd place, and at about 10%:

Every so often, I like to look at the Tradesports odds for the 2008 elections.  Used them for my Kerry-o-Meter in 2004, used them in my discontinued Hillary-o-Meter for 2008 (which may be brought back at some point after the midterms).  Not that they're scientific or anything, they're just interesting.

And, now, in order, the top 10 Republicans and Democrats.


1) George Allen (19.5%)
2) John McCain (17.9%)
3) Rudy Guiliani (12.1%)
4) Bill Frist (10.0%)
5) Mitt Romney (8.7%)
6) Jeb Bush (6.6%)
7) Condi Rice (5.5%)
8 ) Chuck Hagel (5.2%)
9) George Pataki (3.2%)
9) Newt Gingrich (3.2%)


Democrats:

1) Hillary Clinton (46.9%)
2) Mark Warner (10.9%)
3) Joe Biden (10.8%)
4) Evan Bayh (7.7%)
5) Al Gore (5.9%)
6) John Edwards (5.5%)
7) Bill Richardson (3.8%)
7) Tom Vilsack (3.8%)
9) John Kerry (3.4%)
10) Jon Corzine (2.2%)

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« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2009, 12:52:40 pm »
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So there are some people who still think Obama is going to be offed, apparently.
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« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2009, 04:17:21 pm »
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I'd love to know how Biden was doing at intrade in March 2005 for '08.

Don't know about March, but in July 2005, he was in 3rd place, and at about 10%:



Look at that!  I'm part of the historical record!


Generally, Intrade has issues for low probability events.  5% should basically be considered indistinguishable from 0 (though McCain was at 4% or so in Sept. '07, when I came about this close to betting on him...bah.)  And if the volumes are as low as I expect them to be here, push that 5% up higher.

Though an Obama renomination can't be considered an absolute lock.  Obviously, he could die, in which case Biden would be the odds-on favorite (close enough to '12, you can't very well challenge the guy without it being seen as taking advantage of his death; further away, and Biden has enough time to cement his position).  If the economy is still in the toilet as of late 2010 and the midterms went horribly (or there's some other black swan event), I wouldn't count out a challenge entirely.  It would have to be someone of Ted Kennedy '80 stature---either Hillary (whose job in State is partially immune from any Obama economic woes, but it would still be awkward unless there was a public, 1915 Bryan style break) or Al Gore (who would have absolutely no desire to run under any circumstances, anyway).

Total odds certainly 3% or below.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2009, 07:34:37 pm »
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Total odds certainly 3% or below.

I don't know about that.  I mean, it's a low probability, but I'd probably actually put Obama's chances of being assassinated at greater than 3%.  The POTUS is a pretty big target for assassination.

Keep in mind, of our last 10 presidents, one of them was assassinated, one resigned, and one (LBJ) dropped his reelection bid, when he was still constitutionally eligible to run for another term.  Granted, all of those things were more than 30 years ago, but that doesn't mean that it's never going to happen again.
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2009, 03:37:42 pm »
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Total odds certainly 3% or below.

I don't know about that.  I mean, it's a low probability, but I'd probably actually put Obama's chances of being assassinated at greater than 3%.  The POTUS is a pretty big target for assassination.

Keep in mind, of our last 10 presidents, one of them was assassinated, one resigned, and one (LBJ) dropped his reelection bid, when he was still constitutionally eligible to run for another term.  Granted, all of those things were more than 30 years ago, but that doesn't mean that it's never going to happen again.

Well, there was also the assassination attempt on Reagan that came close enough to succeeding to actually shoot him, which should count for our purposes. So it's more like 25 years.
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« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2009, 12:44:37 am »
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Whoever is in the lead, generally doesn't win.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2009, 07:52:11 pm »
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Jindal has dropped to third place, and Palin is down to 10.0, which is as low as she's been since mid-November:

Romney 24.1
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Palin 10.0
Pawlenty 10.0

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« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2009, 10:00:48 am »
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Jindal has dropped to third place, and Palin is down to 10.0, which is as low as she's been since mid-November:

Romney 24.1
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Palin 10.0
Pawlenty 10.0



I would've put my money on Romney anyway at this point.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2009, 11:01:41 pm »
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Romney up, and Palin back up to 2nd place:

Romney 30.0
Palin 14.0
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 10.0

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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2009, 12:51:19 am »
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Romney always does well on Intrade...

Doesn't help him.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2009, 01:35:08 am »
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Romney always does well on Intrade...

Doesn't help him.

I actually thought he was undervalued for the 2008 nomination during much of 2007.  I thought he was too low, and Giuliani was too high.

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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2009, 06:25:46 pm »
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Petraeus "surges" into second place, and Pawlenty's 2010 retirement news lifts him up to a tie for 3rd with Palin:

Romney 27.1
Petraeus 19.8
Palin 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 14.0
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Crist 8.0

(again, only counting those with at least 20 shares traded)

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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2009, 08:00:31 pm »
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I thought Patraeus said he wasn't running.
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2009, 08:43:22 pm »
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I thought Patraeus said he wasn't running.

it's just a case of one overanxious buyer distorting the market a bit early in the low-volume game.  the bid/ask is far below 19.8 on Petraeus.
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2009, 09:49:03 pm »
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Gingrich is way undervalued, IMO. 
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« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2009, 09:49:44 am »
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Good to see Romney polling so well. I will support him in 2012.
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« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2009, 01:56:35 pm »
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Good to see Romney polling so well. I will support him in 2012.

it's not a poll
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