The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Middle-aged Europe]

Santorum back to fourth place.

Romney 80.1%
Gingrich 5.0%
Huntsman 5.0%
Santorum 4.7%

Wow, how is it that his Iowa "win" has almost no effect whatsoever?

[TheGlobalizer]

Santorum back to fourth place.

Romney 80.1%
Gingrich 5.0%
Huntsman 5.0%
Santorum 4.7%

Wow, how is it that his Iowa "win" has almost no effect whatsoever?

Because he's unelectable outside of the right-wing religio-fascist communities that rallied for him last night.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, how is it that his Iowa "win" has almost no effect whatsoever?

Because he didn't win.  The fact that he might come in a close second was already priced in.  In any case, it's the polls that'll determine how much of a bump he gets.  If Santorum has an unexpectedly large bump in the polls, he'll get a corresponding boost on Intrade.

Also, Christie has surged into a tie with Rubio on the GOP VP market:

Christie 19.5
Rubio 19.5
Martinez 5.5
Portman 5.1
Santorum 5.0
Thune 5.0
McDonnell 4.5
Rice 4.5
Jindal 3.1

[© tweed]

Romney 78.9
Gingrich 6.4
Santorum 6.1
Huntsman 3.8
Paul 2.4
Perry 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum back up to 2nd place.

GOP nomination

Romney 79.7
Santorum 6.6
Gingrich 5.7
Huntsman 4.1
Paul 2.3
Perry 1.0

New Hampshire

Romney 96.0
Paul 2.2
Huntsman 1.5
Santorum 1.1
Gingrich 0.3

South Carolina

Romney 51.5
Santorum 25.7
Gingrich 15.0
Perry 2.9
Huntsman 2.0
Paul 1.0

[© tweed]

Romney up to 78 to win South Carolina. seems a touch high but gives you an idea that we are, after all, watching a coronation.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum craters as Huntsman surges to second place.

Up: Romney, Huntsman
Down: Santorum

Romney 81.3
Huntsman 5.9
Gingrich 4.8
Paul 3.7
Santorum 2.0
Perry 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney breaks 85, and Gingrich now up to 2nd place.

Up: Romney
Down: Huntsman

GOP nomination

Romney 85.1
Gingrich 5.6
Paul 3.4
Huntsman 2.0
Santorum 1.6
Perry 0.8

South Carolina

Romney 79.0
Gingrich 13.3
Santorum 5.3
Perry 1.7
Paul 1.6
Huntsman 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's ~85 price matches where McCain was in 2008, shortly after winning Florida.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Paul
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 82.8
Gingrich 5.0
Paul 4.7
Huntsman 1.2
Santorum 1.0
Perry 0.8

South Carolina

Romney 73.7
Gingrich 19.0
Santorum 5.0
Paul 2.9
Perry 0.3
Huntsman 0.2

[Eraserhead]

Gingrich and Paul are undervalued in South Carolina.

[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman dropping out reduces his odds to Buddy Roemer levels.

Up: Romney
Down: Paul, Gingrich, Huntsman

Romney 87.4
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.6
Santorum 1.0
Perry 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.4
Huntsman 0.2
Palin 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich making a bit of a comeback, and Christie is now #1 in the veepstakes.

GOP nomination

Romney 88.7
Gingrich 5.2
Paul 3.2
Santorum 0.6
Perry 0.4

GOP VP nomination

Christie 28.0
Rubio 22.2
McDonnell 7.5
Thune 5.2
Portman 4.2
Martinez 4.0
Jindal 2.7
Santorum 2.7
Ryan 2.5

Dem. nomination

Obama 96.2
Clinton 1.2
Biden 0.4

Dem. VP nomination

Biden 86.8
Clinton 13.0

South Carolina

Romney 74.0
Gingrich 20.5
Santorum 0.7
Paul 0.3

Romney to win all 50 state primaries / caucuses 49.4

[© tweed]

kamikaze Grinch surge


Romney 83
Gingrich 10
Paul 4
Santorum 0.9
Jeb Bush 0.4



SC...

Romney 60.1
Gingrich 35.0
Santorum 0.7
Paul 0.3

[TheGlobalizer]

GOP VP nomination

Christie 28.0
Rubio 22.2
McDonnell 7.5
Thune 5.2
Portman 4.2
Martinez 4.0
Jindal 2.7
Santorum 2.7
Ryan 2.5

I'd be buying the sh** out of Daniels right now.

[Lief 🗽]

If I knew how intrade worked/had money to spend, I would buy a lot of SC Gingrich right now.

[© tweed]

If I knew how intrade worked/had money to spend, I would buy a lot of SC Gingrich right now.

you expect him to weather the ex-wife storm?

[King]

Jesus, Biden for VP would be the easiest 14% return on investment ever earned.

[Lief 🗽]

If I knew how intrade worked/had money to spend, I would buy a lot of SC Gingrich right now.

you expect him to weather the ex-wife storm?

The GOP base is sexist and deeply suspicious of/hostile to the media. They're not going to care about some ABC interview.

[© tweed]

SC is now 56.2 - 40.5

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mitch Daniels climbs to fifth place in Republican nomination market!

Romney 82.5%
Gingrich 9.1%
Paul 3.5%
Santorum 0.8%
Daniels 0.7%

Kind of sad for Santorum that he gets almost beaten by a guy who isn't even running.

[Keystone Phil]

The GOP base is sexist and deeply suspicious of/hostile to the media. They're not going to care about some ABC interview.

Explaining the continued rise of Dr. Cain, of course. Will he go three for three on Saturday? "We'll see."

[Simfan34]

Mitch Daniels climbs to fifth place in Republican nomination market!

Romney 82.5%
Gingrich 9.1%
Paul 3.5%
Santorum 0.8%
Daniels 0.7%

Kind of sad for Santorum that he gets almost beaten by a guy who isn't even running.

If Daniels jumped in right now, which he won't, he'd have my full support.

[TheGlobalizer]

Mitch Daniels climbs to fifth place in Republican nomination market!

Romney 82.5%
Gingrich 9.1%
Paul 3.5%
Santorum 0.8%
Daniels 0.7%

Kind of sad for Santorum that he gets almost beaten by a guy who isn't even running.

If Daniels jumped in right now, which he won't, he'd have my full support.

If Daniels jumped in right now, which he won't, and he won the nomination, he'd have my full support.  (I'd still prefer Paul, but he'd be a very acceptable second choice.)

[tmthforu94]

I'd be open to Daniels as a compromise candidate.