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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 144512 times)
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jmfcst
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« Reply #1125 on: February 20, 2012, 11:52:36 am »
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the jmfcst GOP nomination rankings:
Late Entrant 55%
Romney 35%
Santorum 9.99%
Paul 0.01%

if Santorum wins MI, then:
Late Entrant 80%
Santorum 10%
Romney 10%
Paul 0%

if Santorum wins MI & AZ, then:
Late Entrant 85%
Santorum 10%
Romney 5%
Paul 0%
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« Reply #1126 on: February 20, 2012, 12:13:33 pm »
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Paul 0.01%

explain
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jmfcst
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« Reply #1127 on: February 20, 2012, 12:24:11 pm »
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as of this date, there is an extremely slight, but non zero, chance for Paul to win the nomination.
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« Reply #1128 on: February 20, 2012, 02:40:33 pm »
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as of this date, there is an extremely slight, but non zero, chance for Paul to win the nomination.
What about Gingrich?
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« Reply #1129 on: February 20, 2012, 03:05:19 pm »
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What about Gingrich?

I have included the chances for the Newt's rise in Romney's chances for the nomination - Rick/Newt spliting the anti-Romney vote would lead to Romney's nomination.
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« Reply #1130 on: February 20, 2012, 03:25:00 pm »
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as of this date, there is an extremely slight, but non zero, chance for Paul to win the nomination.

Could you explain the series of events that would lead to this? Because I can't think of anything short of magical/divine intervention that would result in a Paul nomination.
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« Reply #1131 on: February 20, 2012, 03:33:54 pm »
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Could you explain the series of events that would lead to this? Because I can't think of anything short of magical/divine intervention that would result in a Paul nomination.

more and more republicans losing interest due to lame candidates of Romney and Santorum, leaving a plurality of energetic Paultards...a long shot, but not out of the realm of possibilities.
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« Reply #1132 on: February 20, 2012, 03:39:05 pm »
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A Paul nomination would rely on his stealth delegates. So not exactly impossible.
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« Reply #1133 on: February 20, 2012, 04:17:25 pm »
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as of this date, there is an extremely slight, but non zero, chance for Paul to win the nomination.

Could you explain the series of events that would lead to this? Because I can't think of anything short of magical/divine intervention that would result in a Paul nomination.

If there is a protracted fight at the convention so that there needs to be more than just one ballot for president, it is possible that both the establishment and base camps decide that the party is too damaged to win the presidency this year.  In which case they may seek to avoid having their side tarred with the inevitable loss and hand it off to John Davis Ron Paul.
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« Reply #1134 on: February 20, 2012, 11:48:29 pm »
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A Paul nomination, and losing badly with him but bringing up a few good issues in the process, would be infinitely preferable to a Sanatorium nomination. We might as well nominate the Pope or a Cardinal.
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« Reply #1135 on: February 21, 2012, 12:10:37 am »
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Politico- your Pope or Cardinal comment borders on anti-Catholicism....as a Romney supporter I thought you owuld be more sensitive to religious division in this campaign
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« Reply #1136 on: February 21, 2012, 12:13:54 am »
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Politico- your Pope or Cardinal comment borders on anti-Catholicism....as a Romney supporter I thought you owuld be more sensitive to religious division in this campaign

Clarence, I think you are making the mistake of taking Politico seriously.
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« Reply #1137 on: February 21, 2012, 02:30:47 am »
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Politico- your Pope or Cardinal comment borders on anti-Catholicism....as a Romney supporter I thought you owuld be more sensitive to religious division in this campaign

Kennedy never tried imposing his religious beliefs upon people like Santorum does. Romney has never done that either. I apologize if my comments offended anybody, but Santorum is what he is.
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« Reply #1138 on: February 21, 2012, 12:53:12 pm »
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Apparently Mormonism is a valid reason to reject Mitt.

Thanks politico!
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« Reply #1139 on: February 21, 2012, 01:15:35 pm »
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Apparently Mormonism is a valid reason to reject Mitt.

Thanks politico!

There are enough valid reasons to reject Mitt that Mormonism is pretty small-time, I should think.
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« Reply #1140 on: February 21, 2012, 03:32:57 pm »
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I'd much rather vote for Cardinal Timothy Dolan than Rick Santorum.
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« Reply #1141 on: February 21, 2012, 03:38:36 pm »
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Romney now a 2:1 favorite to win Michigan Sad
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« Reply #1142 on: February 23, 2012, 04:14:22 am »
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Santorum's share price is crumbling.

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP nomination

Romney 78.9
Santorum 6.3
Gingrich 4.4
Paul 3.0
J. Bush 2.2
Christie 1.2
Daniels 0.8
Rubio 0.4

Winning individual

Obama 60.2
Romney 31.1
Gingrich 2.1
Santorum 2.0
Paul 1.4
Palin 0.5
Bloomberg 0.3
Christie 0.3
Daniels 0.3
Johnson 0.3
Thune 0.3
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« Reply #1143 on: February 23, 2012, 05:24:02 am »
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Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.
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« Reply #1144 on: February 23, 2012, 06:08:25 am »
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kids did everything they could to avoid nomming Romney.  just couldn't do it.  respect.
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« Reply #1145 on: February 23, 2012, 10:46:25 am »
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Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.
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« Reply #1146 on: February 23, 2012, 11:50:54 am »
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kids did everything they could to avoid nomming Romney.  just couldn't do it.  respect.

not so fast, there is still Vermin Supreme...the GOP electorate may be desperate enough to turn to him as the next FOTM.
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A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
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« Reply #1147 on: February 23, 2012, 12:31:42 pm »
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Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.

Might be?  He's already set the new gold standard.
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« Reply #1148 on: February 23, 2012, 12:33:05 pm »
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Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.

Might be?  He's already set the new gold standard.
A CNN commentator once compared him to chucky.
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« Reply #1149 on: February 24, 2012, 07:52:04 am »
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huge Santorum rebound... 10.0 on last transact to win the nomination
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that is the decision that I have made
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