The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

I'm surprised Palin's numbers are so high.....

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty now up to 2nd place:

Romney 27.1
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Palin 12.0
Sanford 11.0

[tmthforu94]

Pawlenty now up to 2nd place:

Romney 27.1
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Palin 12.0
Sanford 11.0

Ahh, Huckabee has slightly gone down. I'm suprised that Palin is just barely beating Sanford, and Mitt Romney is really starting to pull away from the pack.

[Vepres]

Pawlenty now up to 2nd place:

Romney 27.1
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Palin 12.0
Sanford 11.0

Ahh, Huckabee has slightly gone down. I'm suprised that Palin is just barely beating Sanford, and Mitt Romney is really starting to pull away from the pack.

WOOT! Go Romney!

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford drops out of the top tier.  Gingrich and Thune gain:

Romney 29.9
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Gingrich 13.5
Palin 13.0
Jindal 12.1
Thune 10.0

(again, only counting those with at least 20 shares traded)

[paul718]

I'm surprised Pawlenty is holding his value.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin plummets.  Jindal and Gingrich gain (only those with 20 shares traded included):

Romney 29.9
Jindal 16.0
Gingrich 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Thune 10.0
Petraeus 8.9
Crist 8.0
Giuliani 6.9
Cantor 6.8
Palin 6.5

[Mr. Morden]

Romney extends his lead, and there's a huge Palin rally.  Dumb.  Even if you still think Palin's going to run, I would think any sane reading of events should have her odds diminished since last week:

Romney 33.8
Jindal 16.0
Gingrich 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Palin 13.9
Thune 10.0

[Vepres]

Romney extends his lead, and there's a huge Palin rally.  Dumb.  Even if you still think Palin's going to run, I would think any sane reading of events should have her odds diminished since last week:

Romney 33.8
Jindal 16.0
Gingrich 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Palin 13.9
Thune 10.0

It's how markets work. It was a correction. I think Thune has more of a chance at this point however.

[tmthforu94]

Romney extends his lead, and there's a huge Palin rally.  Dumb.  Even if you still think Palin's going to run, I would think any sane reading of events should have her odds diminished since last week:

Romney 33.8
Jindal 16.0
Gingrich 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Palin 13.9
Thune 10.0

It's how markets work. It was a correction. I think Thune has more of a chance at this point however.

Thune doesn't even really have much name recognition. I think, if he decides to run and get in the spotlight, he will turn some heads. Definitely a contender for Iowa, Wyoming, and Nevada.

[CJK]

Um, why is Jindal in second? Didn't he indicate he wasn't running?

[Mr. Morden]

Um, why is Jindal in second? Didn't he indicate he wasn't running?

No, I don't think so.  I think he's indicated that he's interested in running for reelection, but hasn't ruled out a presidential run in 2012.  Of course, doing both would pretty much be impossible, since the LA gov. race would be in Nov. 2011.  Then again, there's still time to back out of the LA gov. reelection bid.

But you're right that there's no way he should be in second.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

Romney 25.0
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 15.0
Palin 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9

[pogo stick]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

Romney 25.0
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 15.0
Palin 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9

Yea, of course they are, because if they don't believe what you do, then they are stupid pigs right?

I never have or never will call any Obama supporter a stupid idiot for not agreeing with me. But if they say stupid crap or are really stupid, then I'll make those statements

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

Romney 25.0
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 15.0
Palin 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9

Yea, of course they are, because if they don't believe what you do, then they are stupid pigs right

Dude, this isn't about agreeing or disagreeing with my political beliefs.  This is about political *analysis*.  And yes, some political analysis is dumb, and I feel no guilt in identifying it as such.

[Brittain33]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

The polls show that she has become more popular with the Republican Party, not less, since her resignation. It is plausible that her chances of winning the nomination have gone up even while her chances of winning the general election have plummeted, especially if Obama looks nearly unbeatable and that 71% of Republicans feels content to vote "their hearts" in the primary instead of sending out someone who they don't like who won't win anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

The polls show that she has become more popular with the Republican Party, not less, since her resignation.

Which poll(s) do you mean?  There's been, what?  One?  Two polls on Palin since her resignation?  Do either of them show any real statistically meaningful trend?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, I'm going to go with no chance in hell does this improve her prospects at the nomination.  One can't just look at the short term reaction to this.  Rather you have to imagine how this would play out in an extended primary campaign.  And I think this will end up playing terribly.  I can imagine the Romney attack ads over this playing in my head right now.

Edit:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, Sarah-mentum.

[Lunar]

Even if polls did show an uptick in "who will you vote for two years from now" polls, it's because she's in the news while the other challengers are not.  It's the same reason she's received a slight surge in FB friends.

I don't see what the logical connection is between quitting and her receiving more votes in the early primaries.  She opens herself up to a big, big attack and reportedly told her supporters they can move on to other candidates...are voters really going to eventually back her more overall and accept her narrative that it was completely selfless?

[Brittain33]

I don't see what the logical connection is between quitting and her receiving more votes in the early primaries.  She opens herself up to a big, big attack and reportedly told her supporters they can move on to other candidates...are voters really going to eventually back her more overall and accept her narrative that it was completely selfless?

It means she has the opportunity to do more events like the Evansville Pro-Life dinner and appear very much in the fight in the lower 48, building connections to her audiences instead of coasting on memories.

[Lunar]

Oh, I understand that, but that would interact with polling as of now, right?

[Beet]

Let me just say this now, I know for a fact that you guys are reading way too much into Intrade. The site has so little liquidity that a single person, such as *cough*mumble*cough* can drive prices up or down the 2 or 3 points that you folks apparently find significant.

[Mr. Morden]

Figured I'd do an update as a baseline just in case the "Palin divorce" rumor turns out to be true, and her share price tumbles.....Anyway, Romney expands his lead, and Pawlenty drops a few points:

Romney 33.9
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 14.4
Palin 14.1
Huckabee 13.9
Pawlenty 12.1

[Mr. Morden]

Figured I'd do an update as a baseline just in case the "Palin divorce" rumor turns out to be true, and her share price tumbles.....Anyway, Romney expands his lead, and Pawlenty drops a few points:

Romney 33.9
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 14.4
Palin 14.1
Huckabee 13.9
Pawlenty 12.1

I agree divorce or an affair would make her seem finished in a potential 2012 race but that's also a bit absurd seeing as how McCain and Reagan were divorced.  And on the other side Clinton wasn't divorced but...  I don't really understand how it's not inconsistent to nominate McCain but then say "Oh, we can't nominate Palin now that her marriage ended."  Obviously, the rumors could very well turn out to be false.

Having your marriage blow up in the public eye two and a half years before the primary voting is politically a lot different from having it blow up 30 years ago.  Also, being divorced and then remarried is politically different from being divorced and single.

Of course, this is all quite premature as we don't have any word on Palin's marriage from a credible news source.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney and Huckabee drop while Pawlenty moves up to second place:

Romney 29.0
Pawlenty 18.0
Palin 17.1
Gingrich 15.0
Jindal 15.0
Thune 12.6
Huckabee 10.0
Crist 7.7
Giuliani 6.9

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb Bush gains, and Huckabee drops to an all-time low:

Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 18.9
Palin 17.0
Jindal 15.0
Gingrich 13.5
Thune 12.9
Huckabee 9.0
Jeb Bush 7.0