The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

I'd say everyone above 6 has a chance, though we all know who I'm pulling for.  I have to say, this will be the most up in the air GOP primary in living memory.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin's share price is having a bit of a meltdown today.  It's down to its lowest price since Summer 2009, shortly after she resigned as governor.  Daniels has been surging this past week, and is now up to a tie for third place with Thune:

Romney 19.6
Palin 13.5
Daniels 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.4
Pawlenty 6.5
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Christie 2.4
Barbour 2.1
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5
Johnson 1.4

Will Palin run for president?
yes 55.5
(lowest it's been in many months)

[Bull Moose Base]

Palin's share price is having a bit of a meltdown today.  It's down to its lowest price since Summer 2009, shortly after she resigned as governor.  Daniels has been surging this past week, and is now up to a tie for third place with Thune:

Romney 19.6
Palin 13.5
Daniels 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.4
Pawlenty 6.5
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Christie 2.4
Barbour 2.1
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5
Johnson 1.4

Will Palin run for president?
yes 55.5
(lowest it's been in many months)

Yeah, she's over.  The Right's inevitable "Don't blame us" push back won't be enough.

[Poundingtherock]

Sorry Joe, the shooter is clearly a Democrat Party supporter.

That's why the media isn't providing very much in terms of information because this is a Democrat on Democrat crime.  It doesn't fit the narrative that the Democrat Party wanted.

[Phony Moderate]

Sorry Joe, the shooter is clearly a Democrat Party supporter.

That's why the media isn't providing very much in terms of information because this is a Democrat on Democrat crime.  It doesn't fit the narrative that the Democrat Party wanted.

I think we are supposed to discuss the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election on this board, not Thailand politics.

[Yelnoc]

Palin's share price is having a bit of a meltdown today.  It's down to its lowest price since Summer 2009, shortly after she resigned as governor.  Daniels has been surging this past week, and is now up to a tie for third place with Thune:

Romney 19.6
Palin 13.5
Daniels 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.4
Pawlenty 6.5
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Christie 2.4
Barbour 2.1
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5
Johnson 1.4

Will Palin run for president?
yes 55.5
(lowest it's been in many months)

I still remember a couple months ago when everyone thought I was a crazy for supporting "a nobody like Daniels".  Once the Palin collapse is complete he will be in second.  If Romney continues to bottom out MyManMitch will be numero uno.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

RON PAUL 2012!

[Bull Moose Base]

Sorry Joe, the shooter is clearly a Democrat Party supporter.

That's why the media isn't providing very much in terms of information because this is a Democrat on Democrat crime.  It doesn't fit the narrative that the Democrat Party wanted.

Not true.

Anyway, it's the optics of the optics.  The GOP leaders (including the Red State leader) have the excuse they've been looking for to write her off.  Maybe I'm wrong but I have a hard time seeing how the coming GOP talking points on Palin don't tank her polling and dissuade her from running.

[Poundingtherock]

Joe,

There's something called facts.

You guys in the Democrat Party are lucky this didn't happen on a weekday because the Fox gang would be out there right now showing that this is Democrat-on-Democrat violence.

http://twitter.com/caitieparker/status/23853016876589057

Maybe we'll show you guys some compassion but ask yourself why your friends in the Democrat Party and the media got so quiet when details started to emerge about the shooter.  Shouldn't we be getting profiles about this guy?  Ask yourself why you aren't getting such profiles.

Trust me man...you don't want there to be any optics with this one.  You cannot win them.  Look at how shaky Obama was today with his statement.   He was stuttering with his head buried in his notes.  Wouldn't he be more confident if he had the goods on us?

[Phony Moderate]

Joe,

There's something called facts.

You guys in the Democrat Party are lucky this didn't happen on a weekday because the Fox gang would be out there right now showing that this is Democrat-on-Democrat violence.

http://twitter.com/caitieparker/status/23853016876589057

Maybe we'll show you guys some compassion but ask yourself why your friends in the Democrat Party and the media got so quiet when details started to emerge about the shooter.  Shouldn't we be getting profiles about this guy?  Ask yourself why you aren't getting such profiles.

Trust me man...you don't want there to be any optics with this one.  You cannot win them.  Look at how shaky Obama was today with his statement.   He was stuttering with his head buried in his notes.  Wouldn't he be more confident if he had the goods on us?

Again, there is no party, at least in America, called the "Democrat Party".

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, speaking of Palin and Arizona, Bristol Palin has been offered a job at a radio station in Phoenix:

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/entertainment/post/2011/01/bristol-palin-offered-job-by-phoenix-radio-station/1

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm astounded that there are people who are responding seriously to a certified troll like Poundingmydick.

[Psychic Octopus]

Why are Palin's numbers tumbling?

She's down to 53.7 on the "will she or won't she" market.

[RogueBeaver]

Giffords happened to be on Palin's Obamacare "target list" with a crosshairs over her CD. Pure coincidence, but we all know what happened to Goldwater in '63.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Can I invest 40 shares in Ron Paul (R-TX) please?

[Yelnoc]

Can I invest 40 shares in Ron Paul (R-TX) please?

It's your money....

[Bull Moose Base]

Palin is now 11 and change, barely above Thune, Daniels and Huckabee.  Let's hope for her sake she didn't delete TLC's number.

[Psychic Octopus]

Daniels is now in third place, just ahead of Thune. Palin is now at 10.5, which is the lowest I have seen her since her resignation a year and a half ago. On the other hand, Romney and Pawlenty gained, when pretty much everyone else lost today.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney rebounds a bit and Palin sinks further.  Barbour somehow trails both Trump and Bachmann:

Romney 21.7
Palin 10.5
Daniels 10.1
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.3
Pawlenty 6.7
Gingrich 4.8
Pence 3.8
Huntsman 3.5
Trump 2.8
Bachmann 2.3
Barbour 2.2
Christie 2.0
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Palin drops to (slightly) behind Daniels and Thune to 4th place....though of course it's pretty much a 3-way tie for 2nd:

Romney 23.9
Daniels 10.2
Thune 10.2
Palin 10.0
Huckabee 9.3

Palin has not been this low since the day she resigned as governor.

[Yelnoc]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[RogueBeaver]

This is all Giffords fallout presumably. Or is the realization that she isn't going to run starting to sink in? Mixture of the 2?

[Mr. Morden]

This is all Giffords fallout presumably. Or is the realization that she isn't going to run starting to sink in? Mixture of the 2?

"Palin to run for president" is down to 54.5, but that's not as steep a dropoff as the one for her winning the nomination.  So it's both a decrease in the expectation that she'll run, and a decrease in her chances of winning the nom. if she does run.  Of course, the decrease in the chances of her running in the first place could be Giffords-related as well.

Oh, and she's now back up to 11.0, so she's in second place again.

Also, #s on the following people deciding to run (30 share volume minimum for me to list it):

Bloomberg 7.0
Giuliani 20.0
Bolton 20.0
Johnson 70.0

[Mr. Morden]

For fun, here's another way to look at the market.  Here are the top five candidates by trading volume:

Palin 36,871
Romney 7704
Trump 6640
Jindal 6545
Giuliani 6079

The number is just the total number of shares traded, regardless of price.  So yes, there is much more trading being done on Palin's odds than on those of any other candidate.  Romney is no surprise at second place in volume of shares traded, but then we have Trump, Jindal, and Giuliani.  People really like to trade shares on them, I guess, even though they're not actually doing that well in the market.  (Though Jindal was doing pretty well for a while in 2009.)

Only 5026 shares have been traded on Paul, so he's just another candidate.  A stark change from the 2008 cycle, when there was a huge volume of Paul shares being traded.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin rebounds, though she's still below pre-Giffords levels.  Daniels drops, and Huckabee moves up to 3rd place:

Democratic nominee
Obama 91.6
Clinton 5.5

Republican nominee
Romney 23.4
Palin 13.8
Huckabee 10.5
Thune 10.1
Daniels 8.5
Pawlenty 7.8
Gingrich 4.7
Pence 3.4
Bachmann 2.5
Barbour 2.5
Huntsman 2.1
Trump 2.0
Paul 1.9
Christie 1.7
Johnson 1.4

Oh, and Cain's announcement managed to move him up from 0.2 to 0.3.