The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Could Palins bump be because she joined Fox News?

In a rational universe, that would cause her share price to go *down*, as it demonstrates that she's trying to cash in on her celebrity in the world of punditry, rather than continue her career as an actual politician.

[Psychic Octopus]

Romney's lead has been pretty decisive. Pawlenty won't win, he's too much of a bore.

[Poundingtherock]

Palin has taken the lead on Intrade.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, everyone but Palin has declined:

Palin 21.5
Romney 21.1
Thune 8.2
Pawlenty 7.8
Huckabee 7.7

Of course, Palin also held the lead very briefly a few months ago, and Romney quickly retook it.  May very well happen again.

[Psychic Octopus]

Why does my Intrade show Romney at 21.2/24.0 and Palin at 19.8/21.5? Oh, nvm, looking at the bid.

[Poundingtherock]

I expect after this Saturday evening that Palin will hold the lead until Romney releases his book.

I expect Romney's book to tank (meaning it won't make the top 10 or if it does, the NY Times will give him a dagger symbol, indicating bulk sales)

[Psychic Octopus]

I expect after this Saturday evening that Palin will hold the lead until Romney releases his book.

I expect Romney's book to tank (meaning it won't make the top 10 or if it does, the NY Times will give him a dagger symbol, indicating bulk sales)

Of course he won't be able to compete with Palin in book sales; She is a better known figure nationally.

[Poundingtherock]

I disagree that she is a better known figure nationally.

There's a distinction between name ID and favorability/unfavorability rankings.

More people have an opinion about Palin but I would suspect they aren't far apart in terms of name ID (which may or may not be a bad thing for Romney as I suspect that the Republicans who are undecided about him break against him 2-to-1).

[Mr. Morden]

Palin's book was also a tell all book about the 2008 election.  Romney's book is an actual policy platform.  Obviously the latter will not be able to generate more than a tiny fraction of the free media as the former.

[Mr. Morden]

And Romney is back in the lead:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

[paul718]

And Romney is back in the lead:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

Palin at 20.0 still worries me.  And I assume Newtie is right behind Huckabee? (too lazy to check inTrade, myself )

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich is only at 2.4.

[Poundingtherock]

Morden,

I think she takes the lead again after Saturday nigt (assuming she performs well with her nationally televised Tea Party Convention speech).

[Psychic Octopus]

Remember George Allen and Bill Frist? LOL.

[Poundingtherock]

Palin 22.5
Romney 21.2
Thune 11
Pawlenty 8

[Beet]

Palin is now up to 23.9. I guess someone else is buying other than myself.

[Sam Spade]

Palin is now up to 23.9. I guess someone else is buying other than myself.

I'd certainly be buying, fwiw...

[paul718]

Palin is now up to 23.9. I guess someone else is buying other than myself.

How does her value go up after she embarrassed herself at the Tea Party thing?

[CatoMinor]

why is Gingrich below Johnson? Shouldent he be up near Huckabee and Pawlenty?

[Poundingtherock]

Most of the reviews of her Tea Party speech were good, even from typical critics.

[Poundingtherock]

And by the way, I hope you understand the distinction between using notes and a teleprompter.

You are pretty close to speaking off the cuff when you are using notes while you are speaking word for word from what shows up on the screen when using a teleprompter.

If she had performed the way she did with a teleprompter, then I don't think it would have been successful.

But the way she performed without one was quite strong.

[Poundingtherock]

I'd also point out that she was very strong with Chris Wallace (who scored the biggest ratings he's had in six years in the DC region).

Nearly everyone agrees that Wallace pushed her as hard as anyone would have pushed her.

[Beet]

My only fear is that Intrade will go bankrupt before 2012, owing to some sort of blow up in Europe, and anyone who has their money there will lose it.

My own personal sense is that the Palin handlers would not be happy with any interviewer than genuinely embarrasses her. She is fine to be pushed hard so long as she comes through it well. But if she is actually embarrassed, the result will be personal attacks and the cold shoulder. My evidence is the way Katie Couric was treated in Palin's book and the way CBS has been treated since.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney back in the lead, and Daniels moves up:

Romney 25.0
Palin 23.5
Thune 9.6
Pawlenty 7.5
Huckabee 6.3
Daniels 5.9

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 24.6
Palin 23.0
Thune 14.3
Pawlenty 9.9
Huckabee 6.0
Daniels 4.8