The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

bump

Has anyone ever made money off of betting on Intrade?

[Averroës Nix]

I still think Perry is undervalued, but I'm surprised that his quasi-birtherism and his tax plan haven't had much effect on his trading value so far.

[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Gingrich.

Up: Romney, Gingrich
Down: Perry

GOP nomination

Romney 67.1
Perry 13.4
Cain 7.4
Gingrich 6.0
Huntsman 2.5
Paul 2.4
Bachmann 1.0
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Winning individual

Obama 48.6
Romney 32.2
Perry 6.3
Cain 4.4
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 1.9
Huntsman 1.7
Clinton 0.6
Bachmann 0.5
Palin 0.5
Biden 0.4

Here's where we were four months ago:

GOP nomination

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 13.8
Perry 13.0
Pawlenty 8.4
Huntsman 8.0
Palin 5.4
Paul 2.4
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.9
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Winning individual

Obama 56.0
Romney 15.6
Perry 6.5
Huntsman 4.9
Bachmann 4.0
Pawlenty 3.7
Palin 3.0
Paul 1.8
Cain 1.4
Gingrich 1.2
Clinton 1.0
Biden 0.7

So yeah, Perry's price hasn't really changed much. 

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich's surge fades a bit, but his price is still higher than it was a week ago.  Perry continues to sink.

Up: Romney
Down: Perry, Gingrich

GOP presidential nomination

Romney 68.6
Perry 11.0
Cain 7.5
Gingrich 4.3
Huntsman 2.8
Paul 2.2
Bachmann 1.1
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Dem. presidential nomination

Obama 94.7
Hillary Clinton 3.0
Biden 0.6

Dem. VP nomination (only listing those with at least 20 trades)

Biden 84.1
Hillary Clinton 10.0
Bill Clinton 1.4

Cain to win at least one primary or caucus 31.0
Paul to win at least one primary or caucus 19.8

[Psychic Octopus]

It seems Intrade is betting heavily on Romney; according to them, he's the favorite to win Iowa as well as South Carolina. It's as if they are anticipating that the cycle will be over and finished in a matter of a week.

Huge selloff of Cain today, too. Probably has to do with the sexual harassment story. His Iowa numbers are way down, about fifty percent.

[California8429]

Perry up to 12, Gingrich up to 5, Romney still at 68.

Cain is down to 4%

Those are the four most active markets at the time. So Cain's fall is Gingrich and Perry's rise (from the website)

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate, Cain might pass Perry... depending on how the SH stuff plays out.

[Wonkish1]

At this rate, Cain might pass Perry... depending on how the SH stuff plays out.

Since I've called Perry's fall, then Cain's rise, then Newt's rise, let me now say that Cain's numbers are too cheap relative to his standings in the polls.

[Mr. Morden]

Cain is crashing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPmbL5G8rJY

Gingrich might pass him for 3rd place soon.

Up: Romney, Perry
Down: Cain

GOP nomination

Romney 70.0
Perry 12.5
Cain 4.8
Gingrich 4.3
Huntsman 3.3
Paul 2.5
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.5

Iowa

Romney 43.0
Perry 20.0
Cain 14.4
Paul 12.0
Bachmann 9.0
Gingrich 5.5

New Hampshire

Romney 87.9
Huntsman 6.0
Paul 5.0

South Carolina

Romney 46.0
Perry 30.0
Cain 13.0

[Mr. Morden]

Cain has a bit of a rebound from his post-sexual harassment crash:

Up: Cain
Down Perry

Romney 69.5
Perry 11.0
Cain 6.3
Gingrich 4.8
Paul 2.9
Huntsman 2.7
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 71.3
Obama 12.8
Gore 6.6
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Dodd 0.4
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
Romney 28.5
Paul 8.7
Thompson 8.4
McCain 7.1
Huckabee 4.5
Rice 1.2
Gingrich 0.2

[Phony Moderate]

Gingrich overtakes Cain.

Romney 68.5
Perry 11.2
Gingrich 7.7
Cain 7.0
Huntsman 2.6
Paul 2.5
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.4
Johnson 0.4

[Yelnoc]

Wow, that is quite the rally for Gingrich.

[Eraserhead]

Intrade is pretty racist, it seems.

[Averroës Nix]

Wow, that is quite the rally for Gingrich.

Obviously a reaction to Gingrich's declaration that the contest will "end up being Mitt and Newt."

[King]

The amazing thing about intrade is anybody dumb enough to buy Huntsman in the summer can still sell their shares for a decent amount of money.

[Mr. Morden]

Cain sinks further, and Palin shows a pulse, based on a rumor that she might run after all:

http://race42012.com/2011/11/02/rumor-of-the-day-sarah-palin-reconsidering-decision-to-forego-presidential-race/

Up: Romney
Down: Cain

Romney 70.3
Perry 11.1
Gingrich 7.9
Cain 5.3
Huntsman 2.8
Paul 2.5
Bachmann 1.1
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Whoa, I got to go visit Intrade and buy me some Cain.

[Zarn]

Whoa, I got to go visit Intrade and buy me some Cain.

Buying a black man? Have you no shame?

Anyway, Newt can have November, if Paul can have December.

Funny thing is, it seems every Paul supporter and their moms saw the Newt surge coming. Well maybe not their moms.

[Bacon King]

Does anyone here bet on Intrade? I've been thinking about getting an account; how difficult is it to make money if you bet smart?

[© tweed]

you have to be 105-110% as intelligent as the market if you include fees.  maybe more depending on how much you have to pay to get your money in/out.  there's not much else to say.  if you think you are then go for it.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Whoa, I got to go visit Intrade and buy me some Cain.

Buying a black man? Have you no shame?

Anyway, Newt can have November, if Paul can have December.

Funny thing is, it seems every Paul supporter and their moms saw the Newt surge coming. Well maybe not their moms.

Power of deduction. You can tell who the next flavour is because he/she gets lots of media coverage, is considered a "Small government conservative", isn't Romney, and hasn't been a flavour before and said stupid things recently. Thus, it can't be Huntsman because he's a moderate, it can't be Santorum because he thinks the GOP is still in 1992-2008 mode of "big government conservatism", it can't be Perry or Bachmann because they have managed to say stupid things throughout the campaign, and it can't be Paul because the media wouldn't cover him seriously even if he won Iowa and New Hampshire. Thus, Gingrich is the only one left.

Gingrich might be interesting. He has substance and understanding that Cain lacked, so he'll probably have more lasting power. However, he also has a bunch of problems that Cain also lacked that he's picked up from being important back in the 90s, when Republicans were supposed to be "moderate" and "progressive" (The biggest one I can think of would be Gingrich sitting on a love couch with Nancy Pelosi to talk about cap and trade)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I made over 40 dollars thanks to my investment in Gingrich shares a few weeks back. We're some of the most astute observers out there, I'd say say that the average Atlas member is two or three times more knowledgeable than the average InTrade investor. On average, this forum seems to spot trends two to three weeks in advance, which gives us a large advantage.

I say go for it if you want to invest.

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-Lincoln-Douglas debate update:

Romney 69.3
Perry 10.3
Gingrich 7.3
Cain 5.5
Paul 2.6
Huntsman 2.2
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.3

Palin to run for prez in 2012: 9.0
Cain to win at least one primary or caucus: 26.8
Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 17.0

[Lief 🗽]

Intrade is pretty racist, it seems.

[The Mikado]

Huntsman is still overpriced.