The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich gains on his debate performance.  Apparently, investors like a candidate who asks voters to raise their hands:

Romney 69.1
Perry 10.3
Gingrich 8.4
Cain 5.2
Huntsman 2.7
Paul 2.4
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4

[Psychic Octopus]

I would buy Cain. Even if he loses in the end, he's bound to have a major boost if he wins Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry drops below 10, Cain rebounds to 3rd place, and Dems are back above 50 in winning party.

Up: Cain
Down: Gingrich

GOP nominee

Romney 69.3
Perry 9.5
Cain 6.4
Gingrich 6.2
Huntsman 2.7
Paul 2.6
Bachmann 0.9
Palin 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Winning party

Dems 50.3
GOP 47.1
other 2.5

[Psychic Octopus]

I would buy Cain. Even if he loses in the end, he's bound to have a major boost if he wins Iowa.

Based on today's events I withdraw this statement.

[Bacon King]

Cain share price down 40% so far today

[Beet]

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

[The Mikado]

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

Didn't someone upthread say he made $60 off of it?

[Beet]

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

Didn't someone upthread say he made $60 off of it?

DeadFlagBlues made $40. I'm just wondering if anyone knows any updates about the legal status of the site and how money is supposed to be reported in your tax return.

[Mr. Morden]

And now Cain tanks again (less than half the price of Gingrich).  Also, Bachmann is now behind Palin in the GOP nomination market, and behind both Clinton and Palin in winning individual.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Cain

GOP nomination

Romney 69.9
Perry 10.1
Gingrich 7.9
Cain 3.6
Huntsman 2.8
Paul 2.2
Palin 0.8
Bachmann 0.6
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Winning individual

Obama 49.8
Romney 35.0
Perry 4.1
Gingrich 3.6
Paul 2.3
Huntsman 2.2
Cain 1.6
Clinton 0.6
Palin 0.5
Bachmann 0.4
Biden 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: Cain and Paul make up some lost ground.

GOP presidential nomination:

Romney 69.0
Perry 9.9
Gingrich 8.1
Cain 4.7
Paul 3.5
Huntsman 3.0
Bachmann 1.0
Santorum 0.5
Palin 0.4
Johnson 0.3

GOP VP nomination:

Rubio 30.1
Christie 6.6
Portman 6.5
McDonnell 4.6
Gingrich 4.5
Thune 3.9
Martinez 3.7
Ryan 3.5
Cantor 3.4
Jindal 3.3
Pawlenty 3.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

Didn't someone upthread say he made $60 off of it?

DeadFlagBlues made $40. I'm just wondering if anyone knows any updates about the legal status of the site and how money is supposed to be reported in your tax return.

Mr. Moderate has done a lot of bidding on it.

The legal status in the US is kind of ambiguous, but unless you live in a state that has specifically prohibited gambling online, that kind of means the law isn't likely to be imposed or enforced on you, and InTrade no doubt has some way of laundering the money (just about any website service today uses a third party to process payments so I'm sure they do too), plus plenty of actions on InTrade can only be explained by American hacks (see Ron Paul 2008). Even if your state has banned gambling online I'd be amazed in it actually being enforced against you.

[Eraserhead]

The Cain number is absolutely ridiculous.

Huntsman is basically right next to him. Huntsman... really?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dr. Paul overtakes the Godfather, Newt closes in on "Prof." Perry.

Romney 67.1%
Perry 9.0%
Gingrich 8.4%
Paul 5.1%
Cain 4.8%
Huntsman 3.8%
Who cares about the rest...?

[Jacobtm]

Intrade is definitely illegal in the U.S. You can't make direct bank transfers or use U.S. credit/debit cards to fund your accounts.

I actually spoke with a guy at intrade asking about filing it on your taxes and he was very clear, saying ''That is your choice what you do with that''.

Just invest it in Swiss Jew Gold or something.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Newt and Paul are on the rise.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Perry crashes and burns.  Gingrich is now in 2nd place.

Up: Romney, Gingrich
Down: Perry

GOP nomination

Romney 70.8
Gingrich 9.9
Cain 5.7
Paul 5.3
Perry 4.0
Huntsman 3.0
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.6
Santorum 0.4
Johnson 0.3

Iowa

Romney 42.0
Gingrich 20.0
Cain 14.0
Paul 11.0
Santorum 9.8
Bachmann 9.0
Perry 3.0

New Hampshire

Romney 89.5
Paul 5.0
Huntsman 4.1
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.0

South Carolina

Romney 47.0
Gingrich 19.9
Cain 11.1
Perry 8.0
Santorum 5.9
Paul 4.0

[Vosem]

Post-debate update: Perry crashes and burns.  Gingrich is now in 2nd place.

Up: Romney, Gingrich
Down: Perry

GOP nomination

Romney 70.8
Gingrich 9.9
Cain 5.7
Paul 5.3
Perry 4.0
Huntsman 3.0
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.6
Santorum 0.4
Johnson 0.3

Iowa

Romney 42.0
Gingrich 20.0
Cain 14.0
Paul 11.0
Santorum 9.8
Bachmann 9.0
Perry 3.0

New Hampshire

Romney 89.5
Paul 5.0
Huntsman 4.1
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.0

South Carolina

Romney 47.0
Gingrich 19.9
Cain 11.1
Perry 8.0
Santorum 5.9
Paul 4.0

All is relative, but Bachmann's up 166.67%...I think she's setting herself up as the next flavor after Gingrich. (That said, the actual primaries are starting soon, so maybe there won't be any more flavors. Would make Vosem said )

[Bull Moose Base]

Ron Paul is now in 3rd place.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Ron Paul is now in 3rd place.

I suspect its that 18% when running as an indie. If all those hypothetical voters voted for him in the primary, he would probably sweep it (even though most of them are probably not in either party, many of the important caucuses and primaries allow indies to vote in them).

[Mr. Morden]

Paul now in third, and Cain down to fifth.

Up: Romney
Down: Cain

GOP pres. nominee

Romney 71.8
Gingrich 9.5
Paul 5.1
Perry 4.3
Cain 4.2
Huntsman 3.1
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.3

Dem. pres. nominee

Obama 96.1
Clinton 5.0
Biden 0.6

Dem. VP nominee (only including those w/ 20 or more shares traded)

Biden 84.1
Hillary Clinton 12.0
Bill Clinton 1.4

[CLARENCE 2015!]

What an everchanging race! Probably a good idea to buy Gingrich and Santorum!

[Zarn]

Those three are going to be top 3 come Christmas, although Cain and Perry might work their way back in throughout that time.

And if I'm wrong, do you really want to call a guy out on Christmas?

[Lief 🗽]

Anyone who seriously thinks that Paul has a better chance of being the nominee than Cain is an idiot.

[SufferedMore ThanJesus]

A question that begs to be asked is this: has Intrade ever been right on anything?   Hillary at, what, something like 70% up until Iowa....and then they had Evan Bayh at 99% probability of being O's veep until the day before Biden was picked, when it was leaked that ole Joe had his grill cleaned.

[Zarn]

A question that begs to be asked is this: has Intrade ever been right on anything?   Hillary at, what, something like 70% up until Iowa....and then they had Evan Bayh at 99% probability of being O's veep until the day before Biden was picked, when it was leaked that ole Joe had his grill cleaned.

It missed on Palin, as well.