The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

jmfcst's rankings 11/15/11:

Gingrich 50.0
[late entry] 20.0
Cain 9.99
Romney 9.11
Santorum 6.0
Paul 3.0
Bachmann 0.666
Huntsman 0.5
Perry 0.4
Palin 0.333
Clint Eastwood 0.1
Johnson 0.0

Summary:  Romney still has no path to the nomination unless every other GOP candidate fumbles multiple times, and a late comer could still win it

A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Newt hasn't messed up during the debates.

Sure, Newt hasn't had any damaging moments in debates. But until about a month ago, his campaign was little more than a series of fumbles, regardless of how inconsequential that may seem now.

I think Newt understood, due to his past, he had to wait for the other candidates to implode before he would be given a chance....he simply could chill out until his number was called.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

has the deadline for super tuesday passed?

[The Mikado]

A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

has the deadline for super tuesday passed?

New Hampshire, South Carolina, and one other...I want to say Nevada? have had their filing deadlines.  I don't think anyone else has.

[Yelnoc]

A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

has the deadline for super tuesday passed?

You will have to look that up on a state-by-state bases

But do honestly think somebody can show up one or two months before Iowa, lose Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, Michigan, and Arizona, over the course of two months, and then come out and sweep Super Tuesday?

Who?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

has the deadline for super tuesday passed?

New Hampshire, South Carolina, and one other...I want to say Nevada? have had their filing deadlines.  I don't think anyone else has.

then it is still wide open for a late entry.  


---

A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

has the deadline for super tuesday passed?

You will have to look that up on a state-by-state bases

But do honestly think somebody can show up one or two months before Iowa, lose Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, Michigan, and Arizona, over the course of two months, and then come out and sweep Super Tuesday?

Who?

e.g. *IF* Paul Ryan would announce right after Thanksgiving, he could walk away with the nomination and probably could even win a write-in campaign in SC and some of the early states.

[Mr. Morden]

Betting markets not impressed by Gingrich's latest poll numbers.  And Santorum now ties Bachmann for the GOP nomination.

Romney 69.9
Gingrich 12.4
Huntsman 4.8
Paul 4.8
Cain 3.0
Perry 3.0
Bachmann 1.0
Santorum 1.0
Palin 0.4
Christie 0.2
Daniels 0.2
Johnson 0.2

Winning party

Dems 50.8
GOP 47.0
other 2.2

The following candidate will win at least one primary:

Gingrich 49.9
Cain 35.0
Paul 24.1
Perry 11.0

Romney to win all five of the first five primaries / caucuses: 20.9

[Ty440]

Betting markets not impressed by Gingrich's latest poll numbers.  And Santorum now ties Bachmann for the GOP nomination.

Romney 69.9
Gingrich 12.4
Huntsman 4.8
Paul 4.8
Cain 3.0
Perry 3.0
Bachmann 1.0
Santorum 1.0
Palin 0.4
Christie 0.2
Daniels 0.2
Johnson 0.2

Winning party

Dems 50.8
GOP 47.0
other 2.2

The following candidate will win at least one primary:

Gingrich 49.9
Cain 35.0
Paul 24.1
Perry 11.0

Romney to win all five of the first five primaries / caucuses: 20.9

LMAO Paul above Perry. Who would have thunk it ?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Betting markets not impressed by Gingrich's latest poll numbers.  And Santorum now ties Bachmann for the GOP nomination.

Romney 69.9
Gingrich 12.4
Huntsman 4.8
Paul 4.8
Cain 3.0
Perry 3.0
Bachmann 1.0
Santorum 1.0
Palin 0.4
Christie 0.2
Daniels 0.2
Johnson 0.2

Winning party

Dems 50.8
GOP 47.0
other 2.2

The following candidate will win at least one primary:

Gingrich 49.9
Cain 35.0
Paul 24.1
Perry 11.0

Romney to win all five of the first five primaries / caucuses: 20.9

LMAO Paul above Perry. Who would have thunk it ?

I totally called it back when Perry was popular

[Yelnoc]

Frothmentum

[© tweed]

Gingrich surged earlier in NH primary with the release of that whatever poll but it's currently at static: Romney 87 Gingrich 7.5 Huntsman 6.1 Paul 4.  btw I would short Romney if I had any credibility after pushing the Jets -2 over New England last Sunday, but that's a distant memory, my heart aches

[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman is surging, and Gingrich has nearly caught up to Romney in the Iowa caucus market.

Up: Gingrich, Huntsman
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 66.0
Gingrich 13.7
Huntsman 7.0
Paul 4.9
Perry 3.1
Cain 2.9
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.8

Iowa

Romney 32.0
Gingrich 28.8
Paul 19.4
Cain 8.2
Bachmann 6.7
Perry 3.6
Santorum 2.9

New Hampshire

Romney 85.0
Gingrich 6.6
Huntsman 6.0
Paul 4.0

South Carolina

Romney 43.0
Gingrich 24.8
Cain 11.0
Perry 6.0

[California8429]

Why the crap are people betting so much on Huntsman. They do realize he needs to win the REPUBLICAN primary right? The moderates have already thrown themselves behind Romney.

[Yelnoc]

Did Huntsman do anything notable enough to deserve that bump?

[The Mikado]

Huntsman is higher for the Primary than he is for NH?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Why the crap are people betting so much on Huntsman. They do realize he needs to win the REPUBLICAN primary right? The moderates have already thrown themselves behind Romney.

Huntsman can't win, so he's dumping his fortune on Intrade to make other rich people donate to him and to earn him a profit when he drops out.

[© tweed]

yeah the Huntsman bubble makes no sense especially since the market doesn't think he has a chance in any of the early primaries.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

So let me get this straight....Romney is not leading nationally, behind bigtime in Iowa and tied in NH and people are givin him a 70% shot at the nomination??? I'd score it like this-

45 Romney
40 Gingrich
5 Paul
5 Perry
2.5 Cain
2.5 Santorum
0 Bachmann, Johnson, Hunstman, Roemer

[Bacon King]

Huntsman is higher for the Primary than he is for NH?

Intrade is too low volume to be a genuinely efficient market. You'll see disparities like that from time to time. For example, it's not too uncommon to see a candidate have a higher chance to win the general election than win the primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update....

Up: Romney
Down: Huntsman

Romney 68.1
Gingrich 13.5
Huntsman 5.8
Paul 5.5
Perry 2.7
Cain 2.3
Bachmann 1.2
Santorum 0.9
Palin 0.3
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Gingrich and Huntsman inch upwards, but not a whole lot of change.  Cain's now below 2:

Romney 67.3
Gingrich 14.4
Huntsman 6.4
Paul 5.6
Perry 2.5
Cain 1.9
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.9
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Palin 0.2

[Ty440]

Post-debate update: Gingrich and Huntsman inch upwards, but not a whole lot of change.  Cain's now below 2:

Romney 67.3
Gingrich 14.4
Huntsman 6.4
Paul 5.6
Perry 2.5
Cain 1.9
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.9
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Palin 0.2

And everyone on here with a dimes worth of sense knew this would happen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Here are some pretty funny Intrade numbers.


Mitt Romney to win Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada primaries/cacuses in 2012: 24.8%

Newt Gingrich to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012: 36.5%

Ron Paul to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012: 24.0%

Herman Cain to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012: 22.0%

Rick Perry to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012: 11.0%


ERROR. DOES NOT COMPUTE.


Also, Mitt Romney currently leads both the "Iowa caucus winner" and the "Iowa caucus second place" market. Does not compute either.

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure what doesn't compute about either of those.  For example, Romney is at 35.0 to win Iowa and 28.0 to come in second in Iowa.  So he's got a 35% chance to win, 28% chance to come in second, and 27% chance to come in third or worse.  What doesn't make sense about that?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, that's true. It wouldn't make much sense if Romney were currently above 50% in both markets though.

It's a bit odd though that Romney is currently not favored to win the first five primaries, while neither of the other "major" candidates are favored to win at least a single primary. So basically nobody is sure of anything. Maybe they should open up a "a person other than Mitt Romney to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012" market.

I guess it shows both the unpredictability of the primaries and the limited usefulness of Intrade (or at least of those markets I quoted here). The actual results of Iowa are often pretty random. And the results of Iowa will pretty much determine who is gonna win further primaries in this race.