The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Romney is valued just right. I'd be shorting Palin like hell if I was on InTrade if it weren't for the fact it'd likely be two years before a payoff.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How are Christie, Giuliani and Gingrich all tied? While the latter's campaign may have been a massive load of epic fail and has essentially collapsed, at least he's running like the former two, of which one has made more denials of running than probably any other candidate in recent history except perhaps Gore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

Didn't someone upthread say he made $60 off of it?

DeadFlagBlues made $40. I'm just wondering if anyone knows any updates about the legal status of the site and how money is supposed to be reported in your tax return.

Mr. Moderate has done a lot of bidding on it.

The legal status in the US is kind of ambiguous, but unless you live in a state that has specifically prohibited gambling online, that kind of means the law isn't likely to be imposed or enforced on you, and InTrade no doubt has some way of laundering the money (just about any website service today uses a third party to process payments so I'm sure they do too), plus plenty of actions on InTrade can only be explained by American hacks (see Ron Paul 2008). Even if your state has banned gambling online I'd be amazed in it actually being enforced against you.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I actually think Romney is slightly undervalued to win SC (emphasis on "slightly"), and a bit more undervalued to win the nomination.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A Paul nomination would rely on his stealth delegates. So not exactly impossible.