The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

can we get an update?  thanks

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

whoever is buying Romney shares is throwing their money away.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney 29.6
Thune 19.0
Palin 18.8
Pawlenty 13.5
Gingrich 9.0
Huckabee 7.9
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
J. Bush 6.0
Pence 5.0

those are the only three who have a chance, IMO.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/pence-will-run-for-governor

I'll say that the official announcement should come in December.

seems more like speculation, if you're Pence and know you have a shot at winning IA, why would you run for gov?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

now do yall see y Pence would have been a strong contender?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

true

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

does ryan refer to paul ryan?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney 31.8
Pawlenty 16.0
Perry 13.3
Huntsman 11.0
Bachmann 6.3
Palin 5.1
Cain 3.7
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Gingrich 1.9
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Santorum 0.9

I cant believe that many people are betting on Pawlenty

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Huntsman passes Bachmann for 3rd place:

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4

That's just weird.

I'm a fan of Huntsman but the number seems overinflated based on the current hype-o-meter.  I certainly wouldn't put him above Bachmann right now, though his ceiling is about as high as it gets among the candidates, IMO.

I guess we'll see where Bachmann is as more polling comes out with Perry included.

any ranking that has Pawlenty at 6.1 and not <0.5 is smoking crack...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

folks, there is money to be made by shorting Pawlenty @ 6.1

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

why would any Bush endorse anyone in a primary?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romny has no path to the nomination...short him

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney will win between 2-12 states, no more...in fact Perry will win more delegates in '12 than McCain did in '08

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney will win between 2-12 states, no more...in fact Perry will win more delegates in '12 than McCain did in '08

so go bet on it.

like I did when I insisted back in Sept 2010 that neither Palin nor Romney was going to be the 2012 nominee? or like I did when I insisted back in March 2010 that Pawlenty had no chance at winning the nomination? or perhaps like I did when I insisted on the night Obama picked Biden that McCain was going select Palin for VP in 08? 

I am the bellwether on this forum for GOP presidential nominees because I closely represent the GOP base, and if I show no interest in a candidate, then that candidate has no chance to win the GOP nomination.  Period.

Aside from a major scandal or a new entry into the race, here are the odds on winning the GOP nomination:

Perry: 95%
Paul: 5% (if the economy goes to hell in a handbasket, people might be desperate enough to have a revolution against government)
everyone else: 0%

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I am the bellwether on this forum for GOP presidential nominees because I closely represent the GOP base

No.

guess that explains why your main squeeze is riding so high in the polls, eh?! 


in "Does Rick Santorum have a political future?"

no, and all mention of him, even the acknowledgement of his existence, should cease

in "Santorum for VP"

impossible

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You also predicted that Kerry would win in 2004.

I never predicted Kerry would win the GOP nomination in 2004 or any other year

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'm not attempting to go through the painstaking process of combating your massive ego, jmf, I'm just kindly suggesting that if you so believe in your own opinion there are opportunities out there to make 3x on your money.

and when I had 99.9% proof (proof, not opinion) that Palin was McCain's pick and Palin was still at 2 on Intrade, did I bet money?  No.  Why?  Because betting on politics is not my thing.  

Besides, Perry could still be caught with a live boy in his bed.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Naso is the true bellwether, and soul, of the GOP.

Ha!  The only Naso I know within the GOP, is Naso himself.  Most members of the GOP would shield their minds from Naso, just as I did by not reading [How Naso became Naso].

Don't get me wrong, I like Naso, but I don't want to go exploring The Mind of Naso.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

have you ever heard of / read the works of this dude?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randall_Balmer

is he related to Naso?  if so, then no.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Cain withdrew his comments about Perry and the rock word on Hannity, after he had more time to learn "the facts."  He said he "knows" that Perry has no animus to black people.  He's not dumb. He is smart enough not to double down like Perry. In a word, he's smarter than Perry. Who knew? 

wow, this would be a softball quesiton for Cain in the next debate...if he gives the answer he gave Hannity, Cain may well be on his way.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

short perry, buy cain

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Intrade doesn't really seem to take Cain seriously.

jmfcst's don't do Intrade.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Intrade doesn't really seem to take Cain seriously.

jmfcst's don't do Intrade.

good, because your massive pushing of Perry stock about a month ago is worth between 50 and 60 cents on the dollar.

I advised someone to buy Perry?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

oh, so it's dis the jmfcst time....well, let's review the facts...It's fact time...Fact time for jmfcst...

Someone look up the price of Perry on Intrade from a) August 18th at 7pm to  b) after the debate ended on Sept 22....

jmfcst pumps Perry...

Perry is a seasoned pol....he's unlikely to implode during one the debates.  So, unless Paul Ryan (or another big hitter) enters the race, looks like Perry is the GOP nominee.

jmfcst dumps Perry...

well, if Perry doesnt perform well tonight in the debate...his reign as frontrunner will be short lived.

Perry is proving he is an empty suit.  we need someone like jmfcst, someone willing to spend money on the right things that will provide career private sector jobs

Perry is showing why he basically stayed out of sight in Austin the last 12 years, so much so that Texans like me hardly heard a word about him...not only is no one home, the lights aren't even on.

conservatives dont have a viable canidate....so I think there is STILL time for someone else, other than Palin, to enter the race