The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Politico]

Clinton ... too low here.  

As Obama dying in office is pretty much a necessary condition for Clinton winning the presidency in 2012, is it that you believe something has to happen to the President? Because, unless this is happening, the set of states in which Obama doesn't get the nomination is pretty much a subset of the set of states in which most Republicans would win in a landslide against any Democrat.

Not at all.  Most economists I've seen estimate a 1 in 3 chance of a new recession.  Assume for the sake of argument that's correct.  I'd say if it happened, there's maybe 1 in 3 is a reasonable estimate that the country's confidence in Obama ends up so battered that he faces insurmountable pressure to give up his re-election campaign.  So I'd call it 10% chance that Obama isn't the nominee in which case I think Hillary would very likely be.  Unlikely to be sure but I think much higher likelihood than people are thinking.  5-10% chance.

Good post, but I disagree on the last point. If this scenario unfolds, the Democrats are pretty much screwed, so I think Clinton would rather sit out until 2016 rather than run and lose in 2012.

It is either Obama, Biden (If, god forbid, Obama died), or the GOP.

[Politico]

Perhaps most interesting, Obama just fell below 50% on InTrade for winning the 2012 election (Currently trading at 49.9%). I believe this is the first time this has ever happened?

[Politico]

I'm not attempting to go through the painstaking process of combating your massive ego, jmf, I'm just kindly suggesting that if you so believe in your own opinion there are opportunities out there to make 3x on your money.

and when I had 99.9% proof (proof, not opinion) that Palin was McCain's pick and Palin was still at 2 on Intrade, did I bet money?  No.  Why?  Because betting on politics is not my thing.  

Besides, Perry could still be caught with a live boy in his bed.

Yeah, an 18-year-old Mexican boy. Or maybe he's into the Filipinos?

[Politico]

You guys haven't seen the Gingrich doodles yet? There is no way he is going to be the nominee. Clearly he is mentally ill.

[Politico]

someone went crazy and bought out a ton of Romney stock and shorted a bunch of Gingrich.  Romney traded at 60.5 on one recent transaction, 56.5 last; Gingrich at 20 last.  bid-ask on Gingrich suggests he should stabilize in the low to mid 20s.

Do they have inside information that something is going to be revealed tonight?

[Politico]

Romney now 63, Gingrich 16.  The party's operation to destroy Newt is now in full swing.  Research was just published yesterday which showed that intrade #s can sway voters.  I'd guess this is intrade manipulation by Romney backers or Karl Rove.

Either that, or something really juicy is going to be revealed at tonight's debate.

Yeah, I would bank on somebody knowing something we do not know (yet).

[Politico]

Rumors flying that Romney has surged to 5.2 on the jmfcstrade.

Oh, how I wish jmfcst were here...

[Politico]

Rumors flying that Romney has surged to 5.2 on the jmfcstrade.

Oh, how I wish jmfcst were here...

Indeed. No fair that he's gone now. And is Wonkish still here?

Who was Wonkish supporting?

Gingrich, I believe. He certainly argued that Gingrich did not engage in lobbying.

[Politico]

A Paul nomination, and losing badly with him but bringing up a few good issues in the process, would be infinitely preferable to a Sanatorium nomination. We might as well nominate the Pope or a Cardinal.

[Politico]

Politico- your Pope or Cardinal comment borders on anti-Catholicism....as a Romney supporter I thought you owuld be more sensitive to religious division in this campaign

Kennedy never tried imposing his religious beliefs upon people like Santorum does. Romney has never done that either. I apologize if my comments offended anybody, but Santorum is what he is.

[Politico]

Mitt is back to 82 in Michigan. New polls are starting to show a post-debate bounce for Mitt in Arizona and Michigan, the two states that were presumably paying the most attention.