Total odds certainly 3% or below.
I don't know about that. I mean, it's a low probability, but I'd probably actually put Obama's chances of being assassinated at greater than 3%. The POTUS is a pretty big target for assassination.
Keep in mind, of our last 10 presidents, one of them was assassinated, one resigned, and one (LBJ) dropped his reelection bid, when he was still constitutionally eligible to run for another term. Granted, all of those things were more than 30 years ago, but that doesn't mean that it's never going to happen again.
Well, there was also the assassination attempt on Reagan that came close enough to succeeding to actually shoot him, which should count for our purposes. So it's more like 25 years.
