The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Beet]

Let me just say this now, I know for a fact that you guys are reading way too much into Intrade. The site has so little liquidity that a single person, such as *cough*mumble*cough* can drive prices up or down the 2 or 3 points that you folks apparently find significant.

[Beet]

Palin is now up to 23.9. I guess someone else is buying other than myself.

[Beet]

My only fear is that Intrade will go bankrupt before 2012, owing to some sort of blow up in Europe, and anyone who has their money there will lose it.

My own personal sense is that the Palin handlers would not be happy with any interviewer than genuinely embarrasses her. She is fine to be pushed hard so long as she comes through it well. But if she is actually embarrassed, the result will be personal attacks and the cold shoulder. My evidence is the way Katie Couric was treated in Palin's book and the way CBS has been treated since.

[Beet]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

[Beet]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

And how do you know that? You have a mind reading device?

[Beet]

Well, think of it this way.  When was the last time someone ran for president just four years into his first Senate term, with no prior experience with statewide or national office?  (Not counting joke 3rd tier candidates.)  I can't think of any examples for decades going back before Obama.  Even Edwards was running at the end of his six year term.  If something hasn't happened for decades, people tend to not expect it to happen again soon.

Also note that Obama himself ruled out a run:

link

and was making no moves for towards a campaign until October 2006.

Woah woah woah. Writing "The Audacity of Hope" wasn't a campaign move?

[Beet]

whoever is buying Romney shares is throwing their money away.

To be fair, they might be short covering.

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What's so bad about Romney? And please don't say he "flip flops."

[Beet]

Apparently a lot of people are still dubious concerning Palin's future as a candidate, not to mention her changes at victory.

The people at Intrade aren't exactly the brightest bulbs in the universe. Btw, does anyone here trade on Intrade? If so what has been your experience with the site? Satisfied / dissatisfied?

[Beet]

In 2008, did intrade ever have the candidate leading every national poll in second place or is this a first?

It happened for brief periods of time now and then.  Early on, Giuliani was leading every poll, but McCain led on Intrade.  Though that was when Giuliani just had an exploratory committee, and there were doubts about whether he'd mount a serious campaign.  Giuliani then surpassed McCain on Intrade in late Feb. / early March 2007, a few weeks after officially entering the race.  Giuliani led the polls and led Intrade for the rest of 2007, with the exception of a few brief interludes.  There was actually a short period of time in the summer when Thompson took a small lead on Intrade, though he was still only second in the polls.

I just had to look these up.

[Beet]

Paul is higher on winning individual than on being nominated?

I guess someone thinks he can run as an independent and win (or just forgot to buy him as the nominee).

Oh goody. If it weren't for the $5 monthly fee and probably $30 in transaction costs, you might be able to pick up a couple of pennies on arbitrage!

[Beet]

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

[Beet]

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

Didn't someone upthread say he made $60 off of it?

DeadFlagBlues made $40. I'm just wondering if anyone knows any updates about the legal status of the site and how money is supposed to be reported in your tax return.

[Beet]

Intrade is definitely illegal in the U.S. You can't make direct bank transfers or use U.S. credit/debit cards to fund your accounts.

I actually spoke with a guy at intrade asking about filing it on your taxes and he was very clear, saying ''That is your choice what you do with that''.

Just invest it in Swiss Jew Gold or something.

Those two things do not make it illegal. First of all, Intrade submitted a comment to the CFTC asking for it to make a ruling, the CFTC did not respond. It's in a legal gray area. The prohibition on credit cards from the US is because Intrade cannot solicit US customers. However, there is no penalty in the law for clients, only "operators."

Secondly, if you do not file this on your taxes then you could be convicted of tax evasion.

[Beet]

You can't use US credit cards?

No, for two reasons. First, as a result of a law passed by Congress in 2006, Intrade cannot solicit in the US. Secondly, according to the same law no financial institution (e.g., credit card issuer) is allowed to knowingly transfer funds for the purpose of online gambling. Technically, this does not apply to Intrade, because they are a futures market, not a gambling site. The outcomes of the contracts traded there (like stock market futures, political futures) primary depend on skill (the skills of political consultants, the skills of stock traders) not chance. Hence it is not really "gambling." However, they have chosen to remove themselves from the situation to avoid any ambiguity.

It is not illegal however to use Intrade provided you can fund your account. Only online sports betting is illegal by federal law, online futures contract trading or even betting on non-sports games of chance are not illegal. Under state law, it depends on the laws of your particular state. Maryland has no prohibition of online futures trading or online gambling.

I would report any winnings on Intrade as capital gains from unregulated futures trading. It may be tempting to not report it. However, if you do not report it and are audited by the IRS, what will you say then? You could be convicted of tax evasion.

[Beet]

VIRGINIA.SANTORUM contract traded as high as 15 last night.

[Beet]

Ok, I'm betting against WASHINGTON.ROMNEY.

[Beet]

I think Santorum is way overvalued in Kansas... last traded at 92.6

Romney and Gingrich are not even bothering to campaign there.

[Beet]

CFTC bans election-based derivatives contracts

Nadex, a Chicago-based electronic exchange, had sought to offer contracts based on results for the elections for the US presidency, the Senate and House of Representatives. The CFTC said that the derivatives “involved gaming and are contrary to public interest”, and asked that Nadex withdraw the self-certification.
...
There has never been a regulated market for investors to purchase futures contracts on political events. Intrade, a market dedicated to unconventional predictions, such as whether France will lose its triple A rating before a certain time, or which movies will have the biggest box office return, currently offers political futures wagers, but is not federally regulated.