The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[TheGlobalizer]

For Huntsman, I think you'll see a further bump as the NH buzz around him grows, the question will be how he plays in IA.

IMO, Romney will be a distant memory in a few months.  I'm perplexed that he has as much support as he has, and it seems like it's based almost entirely on name recognition and his perma-campaign.  I think a lot of that will shift over to Pawlenty as his name recognition grows.

Bachmann will, I think, make a solid run at this.

If I'm handicapping, I think those three are the standout candidates for later this year, with Gingrich, Paul, Cain, and possibly Johnson rattling around at the margins.  Then it's a question of whether other notables (Palin, Christie, Perry) jump in.

[TheGlobalizer]

@Bourbon: I agree with just about all of that.  Bachmann is basically Palin-lite, if such a thing is possible.

I like Johnson, and think he could do well if he got any traction, but he won't.  The pot thing is too much, and while I agree with him on it, it's a loser of a GOP primary issue.

Perry's a peculiar dog.  He's one of those "nine lives" politicians.  I think his version of Texas brashness (and recent Tea Party nuttiness) could win some support beyond Texas, but I don't see the path to victory for him at all.

T-Paw is a placeholder, the tortoise.  I see him as a basically Romney from 2008, who is a little less polished (a good thing) and a little less obviously a hypocrite (also a good thing).  I think the Tea Party stuff shifted the goalposts a bit, making the slicksters less favorable; T-Paw can still hang in, but Romney is DOA.  (Also a big part of why Thune didn't run.)

Handicapping it today, I like Huntsman's chances to win the nom.  I think the "true" conservatives will stay in too long and split the vote.  Huntsman was DOA until the moment Daniels declined to run; now he seems like a fairly good stand-in for that "economics first" conservative candidate, had similar approval ratings in Utah, and has the advantage on foreign policy experience.

That said, things change quickly in politics, especially with ~9 months before the first primaries/caucuses.

[TheGlobalizer]

Tasteless Joke Alert

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I wonder what his probability of death was trading at...

[TheGlobalizer]

I would say the cut-off for a candidate to win the primaries has moved from 5 to 10.  Meaning Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman are the only viable options.

Still a lot of time before these numbers become particularly relevant, but I do think those three names, barring castrophe, will be in the final list.  I do expect to see a red-meat social conservative in that list as well, but I'm not sure who that end up being.

[TheGlobalizer]

GOP VP nominee:

Rubio 22.0

Please, no.  Too soon.  He can wait until 2016/2020.

[TheGlobalizer]

where'd Johnson go?

He's at 0.4.  I was only bothering to list people at 0.5 or greater.  I guess I'm as bad as CNN.

I like Johnson but he's toast.

[TheGlobalizer]

I like Johnson but he's toast.

Carter, Clinton, and I believe Obama, all had similar levels of support, 1-2ish% at points in their campaigns. I wouldn't call him toast yet. 

I'm not basing that on stats so much as Ron Paul's presence in the nom race.

I hope he proves me wrong, and I hope it starts with CNN letting him into the debates.

[TheGlobalizer]

I expect Bachmann will be way up in the next few days.  She's the only one getting legit praise for her performance.

[TheGlobalizer]

Because he doesn't have any popular support whatsoever and it is becoming rapidly evident that he doesn't have the policies that will let him do anything except bring Romney down with him.

I'd say it differently:

Huntsman has yet to catch fire and that has reduced the number of messianic buyers.  He'll ride out the Bachmann fad until her inevitable next failure, and look forward to making an impact in the debates, as a mature alternative centrist voice to the right-wing nutjobbery.

I don't see how he breaks out without trashing Romney, tho.

I'm a minor fanboy but I don't think Huntsman's results at the moment are the least bit unexpected.  He's playing for the long haul, and frankly, looking at a McCain path to the nomination (waiting for the goofballs to eliminate themselves).

[TheGlobalizer]

Perry's calling has eliminated me as a potential supporter.  I'd rather have Obama and a GOP congress.

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman passes Bachmann for 3rd place:

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4

That's just weird.

I'm a fan of Huntsman but the number seems overinflated based on the current hype-o-meter.  I certainly wouldn't put him above Bachmann right now, though his ceiling is about as high as it gets among the candidates, IMO.

I guess we'll see where Bachmann is as more polling comes out with Perry included.

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman passes Bachmann for 3rd place:

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4

That's just weird.

I'm a fan of Huntsman but the number seems overinflated based on the current hype-o-meter.  I certainly wouldn't put him above Bachmann right now, though his ceiling is about as high as it gets among the candidates, IMO.

I guess we'll see where Bachmann is as more polling comes out with Perry included.

any ranking that has Pawlenty at 6.1 and not <0.5 is smoking crack...

Yeah, that too.

[TheGlobalizer]

Palin above Bachmann? What the ?

Perry is the new surrogate-Palin.  Palin is the actual Palin.

I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate Johnson hits 1.0+ soon.  I think he woke some people up with his family values pledge reaction.

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman is, I'm sure, trying very very hard to get Jeb's endorsement (the real one, not the kid).  It would be a huge boost, and it makes a lot of sense for Jeb to do it.

Anyone know what Jeb is trying to do in the future, politically?  Senator?  Cabinet official?  I don't know much about his pet projects/interests.

[TheGlobalizer]

So Santorum isn't even on the board anymore because Pataki jumped ahead of him? Yeah, that's nonsense.

Oh, Phil.

Now you know how us long-suffering libertarians feel.

[TheGlobalizer]

Ryan?  Did I miss a news event?

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman's numbers are kind of unbelievable. There is no reason for him to be hovering between 5-10%.

The guy has run a horrible campaign and his favorability is about 20-40 nationally in his own party. I know that he got a lot of media attention early in the summer - but that has tapered off recently. Why buy Huntsman?

Basically, because the GOP talks with its heart and votes with its head.  The GOP has a storied history of lunatics in its midst yet still selecting centrist presidential candidates.

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman's numbers are kind of unbelievable. There is no reason for him to be hovering between 5-10%.

The guy has run a horrible campaign and his favorability is about 20-40 nationally in his own party. I know that he got a lot of media attention early in the summer - but that has tapered off recently. Why buy Huntsman?

Basically, because the GOP talks with its heart and votes with its head.  The GOP has a storied history of lunatics in its midst yet still selecting centrist presidential candidates.

I agree, with the added qualifier that the party won't nominate a candidate who doesn't appeal to its electorate. Which is why I think that Romney and Perry are the only realistic potential nominees.

Huntsman's problem is not that he is a moderate, or that he's unqualified. He has conservative positions on most issues, and he has executive experience. But he's running a poor campaign, that's been alienating to voters. Nor have donors shown that they're willing to support him yet.

With regard to his Intrade odds, he doesn't inspire the kind of media circus that Palin or Nachmann do, and he doesn't have the fervent support of Paul. Nor is he a "grass is greener" kind of candidate like Christie. So I wouldn't buy Huntsman expecting his odds o periodically inflate unrealistically.

And that's why I don't understand how he's hovering in third or fourth at between 6 and 8 percent.

I think he's there because all of the leading GOP candidates are horrible.  Romney was a borderline joke and a flip-flopper in 2008, and now he's the mainstream candidate?  Religious conservatives were a forgotten group in 2008, and now they're the definition of mainstream conservativism?

I don't think so.  The GOP bench was ruined by Bush and the few people left showed their tin ears in 2008.  The lingerers are controlling the debate now, but they are not representative of the Tea Party movement as originally constituted and the socially-moderate economic conservatives don't have much of a voice (or interest) at the moment.

In a normal year with some elite GOP candidates, Huntsman would be ~3 or less.  Right now, there's a subgroup betting that the shrill nutjobs will implode and the usual GOP statesman will rise to the top, and not everyone in that subgroup thinks the statesman will be Romney.

My perspective, anyway.

[TheGlobalizer]

Santorum back to fourth place.

Romney 80.1%
Gingrich 5.0%
Huntsman 5.0%
Santorum 4.7%

Wow, how is it that his Iowa "win" has almost no effect whatsoever?

Because he's unelectable outside of the right-wing religio-fascist communities that rallied for him last night.

[TheGlobalizer]

GOP VP nomination

Christie 28.0
Rubio 22.2
McDonnell 7.5
Thune 5.2
Portman 4.2
Martinez 4.0
Jindal 2.7
Santorum 2.7
Ryan 2.5

I'd be buying the sh** out of Daniels right now.

[TheGlobalizer]

Mitch Daniels climbs to fifth place in Republican nomination market!

Romney 82.5%
Gingrich 9.1%
Paul 3.5%
Santorum 0.8%
Daniels 0.7%

Kind of sad for Santorum that he gets almost beaten by a guy who isn't even running.

If Daniels jumped in right now, which he won't, he'd have my full support.

If Daniels jumped in right now, which he won't, and he won the nomination, he'd have my full support.  (I'd still prefer Paul, but he'd be a very acceptable second choice.)

[TheGlobalizer]

Like the attitude or hate it, he's been almost exactly the same throughout the campaign. Now people have to actually include him in conversations as more than just an also ran. I think that's what irritates people the most.

The man, himself, irritates me the most.

[TheGlobalizer]

Mitch Daniels now trading ahead of Santorum.

If this thing becomes brokered, he absolutely should be ahead of Santorum and even Paul.  He's pretty much the best reasonably possible candidate for the GOP for 2012.

[TheGlobalizer]

On InTrade.

Perfect candidate?  Not sure.  Daniels is an excellent fit for the 2012 GOP.  For electability, I still think Gary Johnson would have destroyed Obama.  Needed some help on the presentation but the dude is pretty awesome.

[TheGlobalizer]

Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.

Might be?  He's already set the new gold standard.