The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[King]

If you buy the shares of the winning candidate and never sell them, do you lose money or does the system some how reward you for being correct? 

I think you have to cash out once a 2012 GOP nominee is selected.  There's no other reason to hold them because they will no longer be bought or sold.

[King]

I'm definitely hoping on the Cain bandwagon.  If I had money, I would invest.

[King]

If Huckabee, Rubio, Christie, Daniels, and Thune don't have any interest in cruising to nomination in a wide open field, why would they show any enthusiasm in playing second fiddle to one of these guys?

The VP choice will likely be similar to Jack Kemp or Dick Cheney: an old guy at the end of his career who plans on acting more as an advisor to the nominee than any sort of charismatic future candidate for the party.  That's the only kind of person who would ever say yes to any of these people.  On the list, McDonnell might be dumb enough to as well.

Newt Gingrich would actually be a good VP candidate for any of the Romneys or anti-Romneys if he doesn't continue to slide out of favor of the GOP.

[King]

Maybe, but it would be the first time it has ever happened.  Losing VP candidates, especially those tied to loser Prez candidates, just don't go anywhere in the end.  

They get name recognition and frontrunner status next election, sure, but being the early frontrunner in a Presidential primary is more of a curse than a blessing.  They get attacked on all sides in debates immediately.  Plus, I've always believed a lot of voters subconsciously like arch structure with their candidates in these things.  Having the guy who was the favorite to be the nominee four years ago be the nominee is boring as hell.  No buildup there.  There has to be fight.  A known like McCain wasn't a serious contender for the nomination until it looked like he was done.  The obvious choices like Giuliani, Clinton or Edwards were hesitated on once people got into the voting booths.

[King]

I kind of feel like investing my life savings on that Cain @ 4.5.

[King]

They have Huntsman that high? I believe he can win the nomination but I'm shocked that he's doing that well on InTrade this early.

Probably a lot of people who think like you, saw him at 0.5, and drove the price up.   If I bought Huntsman low, I'd sell him at 13.

[King]

Who would waste an entire 1.5 on "other" winning the election?

[King]

I like how Clinton and Biden are more likely to win the election than Gingrich.

[King]

I imagine the Bushes are going to back Perry.

[King]

You have $6.50.  Why would you spend it on Tim Pawlenty instead of Michelle Bachmann?

[King]

I'm still kicking myself for not buying Bobby Jindal at 20.0 when this thread started.

[King]

I'd be shocked if Bachmann were still strong in Iowa, unless all of her 3-4% nationwide support was concentrated in that state.

If Cain is pushing 30 in Nebraska, then there's hope.

[King]

The amazing thing about intrade is anybody dumb enough to buy Huntsman in the summer can still sell their shares for a decent amount of money.

[King]

Jesus, Biden for VP would be the easiest 14% return on investment ever earned.

[King]

Romney 79.5
Santorum 11.6
Gingrich 3.1
Paul 2.4
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.6

On Intrade in this race an 11.6 against Romney is like 40% odds of winning.