When will...
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  When will...
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Poll
Question: When will Columbia County, Oregon vote Republican?
#1
2012
 
#2
2016
 
#3
2020
 
#4
2024 or later
 
#5
Never
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 6

Author Topic: When will...  (Read 1163 times)
Rob
Bob
Junior Chimp
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United States
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« on: February 24, 2009, 03:37:47 PM »

Columbia is an intriguing place, with a political blend almost unique in the region. Tucked away in Oregon's northwest corner, the county is one of the few places left in the Northwest that still votes along historic class lines; the last Republican presidential candidate to win there was Herbert Hoover in 1928.

Basically, it's a traditional center of logging and labor unions. The area remains over 90 percent non-Hispanic white to this day, with relatively high Census self-identification as English or "American." Blacks are 0.2 percent of the total. Columbia voters often side with Christian conservatives on cultural matters- to name just one recent example, the measure banning same-sex marriage won 65 percent there as it received 57 percent statewide. Almost invariably, the Constitution Party wins its highest statewide percentage in Columbia!

Presidential Results, 2000-2008

2000: Gore (D) 49%; Bush (R) 44%; Nader (G) 5%
2004: Kerry (D) 50%; Bush (R) 48%
2008: Obama (D) 54%; McCain (R) 42%
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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India


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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2009, 03:50:09 PM »

Depends on how national and state totals develop in the future, o/c. Tongue If something like Bush's 2004 coalition reappears in 2012 or 2016, it'd presumably win the county. But that's by no means a given (even if national totals like 2000's or 2004's reappear). If there's a Republican landslide anytime soon, obviously it'll fall. Etc.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2009, 03:54:38 PM »

Well, if Reagan couldn't even capture it, I dunno what it would take. But saying "never" would kinda be naive.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2009, 02:57:57 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2009, 03:08:52 PM by Alcon »

Columbia is also sort of becoming part of the Portland metro, in the weird way that satellite areas grow because of the metro, but few people commute.  That having been said, I was mildly amazed that Obama did as well in Columbia as he did.

Columbia is weird, in that it seem socially conservative but not especially a culture warrior zone.  Measure 58 (which banned non-English teaching) failed by about 10 points this year but barely passed Columbia.  Still obviously an over-performance, but there are limits to the county's conservatism.  It's Bush-league Smiley

I agree with Lewis.
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