Steele Threatens to Withold RNC Funs from Collins, Specter, Snowe?

[Brittain33]

With all due respect, Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate 5 times in a row now, twice in very close elections.  Its a lean Democratic state, not a swing state.

Yes, on the Presidential level.

"Swing state" in senate races doesn't really make sense to me because each Senate race is so different and they skip every third election. The distinction drawn is usually between partisan patterns in federal races vs. state races. I think we can all agree that Pennsylvania's long pattern of only electing Republican Senators, with rare exceptions, is about as useful for predictive purposes as Louisiana's pattern of only electing Democratic senators. We can look at recent trends in voting for House races in Pennsylvania and it's not at all favorable to a "swing state" diagnosis. Arlen Specter is sui generis. He was elected in the same year as Al D'Amato and I think they're going to have more in common than Specter would have liked.

[Keystone Phil]

With all due respect, Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate 5 times in a row now, twice in very close elections.  Its a lean Democratic state, not a swing state.

Yes, on the Presidential level.

"Swing state" in senate races doesn't really make sense to me because each Senate race is so different and they skip every third election.

It's not just a swing state on that level either. Our row offices and control of the State Legislature swings, too (with the exception of Attorney General which has always been held by a Republican since they began electing the office).

[Brittain33]

It's not just a swing state on that level either. Our row offices and control of the State Legislature swings, too (with the exception of Attorney General which has always been held by a Republican since they began electing the office).

Right--for me, the key distinction is between state and federal races. I grant that state races still show a state divided with Republicans having good shots at statewide races. It looks like Pennsylvania has become lean Democratic, in aggregate, in federal races this decade. I base this on House and Presidential results. The Senate results we have so far are very strong Specter wins in 1998 and 2004 and Santorum's races in 2000 and 2006, and the question we can debate is how predictive they would be of a 2010 Specter or open seat race given what we know. The only thing I feel certain of is that the incumbent himself is the biggest factor in how the race goes, but I think the partisan slant of the state is also important. 

[Ogre Mage]

Steele's threat is toothless and hollow.  Specter had $5,810,882 on hand at the end of 2008 and is a high-ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  He doesn't need the RNC to raise money.

As for withholding money from Snowe and Collins in the future -- HAHAHA.  They clearly don't need the national party for reelection.

[Brittain33]

Steele's threat is toothless and hollow. 

Watching the tape, I think he didn't even know what he was agreeing to when he said so. He was trying to say what the Fox interviewer wanted to hear and show deference to the party chairs and so he threw the moderates under the bus and abrogated RNC policy by mistake. This isn't the first or the last time he's said something off the cuff that was very much not what he should have said. Republicans had better hope he's a good tactician and can work well with the state chairs because as far as a PR front he's turning into Palin part II, more of a liability than an advantage.

[Keystone Phil]

Steele's threat is toothless and hollow.  Specter had $5,810,882 on hand at the end of 2008 and is a high-ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  He doesn't need the RNC to raise money.

Uh...without the NRSC, Specter would have been badly beaten in 2004. And on the fact that State Committee might not even back the guy (and they're openly talking about it) and he's basically finished. He doesn't have Bush and Santorum to save his ass this time.

[Lunar]

He also doesn't have a top-tier opponent this time either.

We'll see.

[Keystone Phil]

He also doesn't have a top-tier opponent this time either.

We'll see.

Uh...he doesn't have one yet.

And he doesn't need one to lose either. A second tier candidate can knock him off. A third tier candidate can even give him a run. The money will be pouring in, Specter has fewer RINOs to save him then ever before, his two biggest cheerleaders are gone, he has pissed off the base more than ever before, etc.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He also doesn't have a top-tier opponent this time either.

We'll see.

Uh...he doesn't have one yet.

And he doesn't need one to lose either. A second tier candidate can knock him off. A third tier candidate can even give him a run. The money will be pouring in, Specter has fewer RINOs to save him then ever before, his two biggest cheerleaders are gone, he has pissed off the base more than ever before, etc.

That story reminds me of something a basketball coach said once: if you catch your wife cheating, you don't punish her by castrating yourself.

[bgwah]

If only Collins and Snowe would pull a Jeffords...

[Dan the Roman]

Christmas comes early for us!  Does he want to hand 3 seats to the Democrats?

Please try your hardest to stop thinking of a swing state like PA as an automatic pickup in a midterm election. Please.

With all due respect, Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate 5 times in a row now, twice in very close elections.  Its a lean Democratic state, not a swing state.

As for Steele's threat, this is a great way to chase these three into the Democratic caucus either as independents or full blown Democrats.  If their voting record thus far in the 111th is any indication I don't think it would take all that much to get them to flip.  So by all means, keep pushing Steele.  Maybe if you push hard enough we'll get some House flippers too.

Snowe would never become an independent or Democrat, and Collins use to speak in favor of the NRSC.  I doubt either of them would switch parties.

If Specter has any sort of aspirations as a politician, he won't run as an independent in the 2010 election.

Snowe might well become an independent, and would easily win if she did so. Collins however owns the state party body and soul. No one is going t run against either.

[Ogre Mage]

Steele's threat is toothless and hollow.  Specter had $5,810,882 on hand at the end of 2008 and is a high-ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  He doesn't need the RNC to raise money.

Uh...without the NRSC, Specter would have been badly beaten in 2004. And on the fact that State Committee might not even back the guy (and they're openly talking about it) and he's basically finished. He doesn't have Bush and Santorum to save his ass this time.

The NRSC is not the RNC and there is no evidence that Cornyn & Co. care about Steele's blatherings.  It is extremely unlikely that Republican Senators will dump Specter, who is one of their best cash cows and has donated generously to other GOP senators in the past.  He raised almost $15 million in 2004 -- an extraordinary sum.  We all know how their mutual backscratching society works.

If he loses, it won't be because of a lack of money.

[Keystone Phil]

Steele's threat is toothless and hollow.  Specter had $5,810,882 on hand at the end of 2008 and is a high-ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  He doesn't need the RNC to raise money.

Uh...without the NRSC, Specter would have been badly beaten in 2004. And on the fact that State Committee might not even back the guy (and they're openly talking about it) and he's basically finished. He doesn't have Bush and Santorum to save his ass this time.

The NRSC is not the RNC and there is no evidence that Cornyn & Co. care about Steele's blatherings.  It is extremely unlikely that Republican Senators will dump Specter, who is one of their best cash cows and has donated generously to other GOP senators in the past.  He raised almost $15 million in 2004 -- an extraordinary sum.  We all know how their mutual backscratching society works.

If he loses, it won't be because of a lack of money.

The NRSC might feel the pressure to not give Specter as much as last time though.

Every bit of money that Specter can get his hands on matters. He can't do it on his own. If he's just working on his own personal warchest, he's done on Day One.

Even with Bush and Santorum, Specter wouldn't have been able to win in 2004 without the amount of money that the national party organizations pumped in.

[Ogre Mage]

Specter raised $14.9 million in 2004.

Individual Contributions:  $11.8 million
PACs:  $2.6 million

That's $14.4 million.  So we could guess that about $500,000 was party money.  That's not a huge percentage.  And the NRSC will back Specter up.  They don't want to lose a valuable caucus member.

http://cspan.politicalmoneyline.com/cgi-win/x_candpg.exe?DoFn=S6PA00100*2004

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the NRSC pulled out all the stops to save Lincoln Chaffee, then I see no reason why they will not do the same with Specter.
After all, he is significantly more conservative than his former colleague.

[© tweed]

If the NRSC pulled out all the stops to save Lincoln Chaffee, then I see no reason why they will not do the same with Specter.
After all, he is significantly more conservative than his former colleague.

Chafee would have kept the Republicans in power for two more years.  Specter won't as the Republicans aren't gaining 10 seats this cycle (or in the next two cycles, 99% chance).

[Brittain33]

If the NRSC pulled out all the stops to save Lincoln Chaffee, then I see no reason why they will not do the same with Specter.
After all, he is significantly more conservative than his former colleague.

I think the NRSC will come through with Specter if he needs it and the race isn't looking like a blowout either way, for sure. That said, saving Chafee's bacon was a much cheaper proposition than wading into the Pennsylvania media market.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the NRSC pulled out all the stops to save Lincoln Chaffee, then I see no reason why they will not do the same with Specter.
After all, he is significantly more conservative than his former colleague.

Chafee would have kept the Republicans in power for two more years.  Specter won't as the Republicans aren't gaining 10 seats this cycle (or in the next two cycles, 99% chance).

And saving Specter may keep the Democrats from obtaining a filibuster proof majority.

[Keystone Phil]

Specter raised $14.9 million in 2004.

Individual Contributions:  $11.8 million
PACs:  $2.6 million

That's $14.4 million.  So we could guess that about $500,000 was party money.  That's not a huge percentage.  And the NRSC will back Specter up.  They don't want to lose a valuable caucus member.

http://cspan.politicalmoneyline.com/cgi-win/x_candpg.exe?DoFn=S6PA00100*2004

How much you want to bet a lot of those individual contributions and even PAC money came from Bush and Santorum urging some conservative donors to back their guy?

[Ogre Mage]

Specter raised $14.9 million in 2004.

Individual Contributions:  $11.8 million
PACs:  $2.6 million

That's $14.4 million.  So we could guess that about $500,000 was party money.  That's not a huge percentage.  And the NRSC will back Specter up.  They don't want to lose a valuable caucus member.

http://cspan.politicalmoneyline.com/cgi-win/x_candpg.exe?DoFn=S6PA00100*2004

How much you want to bet a lot of those individual contributions and even PAC money came from Bush and Santorum urging some conservative donors to back their guy?

I suspect it wasn't a huge factor.  Specter needed Bush/Santorum to prove his conservative bona fides.  That remains his problem, not money.

As I mentioned earlier, Specter is a senior Appropriator, which gives him major power to call in donations.  He is also the Ranking Minority Member of the Judiciary Committee and has a good following among lawyers -- a potent donor base.  I've also heard that he has support from unions and many Jewish constituents, two more potent fundraising sources which normally don't favor Republicans.  And we can see by his current war chest that he is doing fine.

[Keystone Phil]

Specter raised $14.9 million in 2004.

Individual Contributions:  $11.8 million
PACs:  $2.6 million

That's $14.4 million.  So we could guess that about $500,000 was party money.  That's not a huge percentage.  And the NRSC will back Specter up.  They don't want to lose a valuable caucus member.

http://cspan.politicalmoneyline.com/cgi-win/x_candpg.exe?DoFn=S6PA00100*2004

How much you want to bet a lot of those individual contributions and even PAC money came from Bush and Santorum urging some conservative donors to back their guy?

I suspect it wasn't a huge factor.  Specter needed Bush/Santorum to prove his conservative bona fides.  That remains his problem, not money.

I know why he needed them but he probably also got a good deal of money from their people, too.

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Those are all people that always donate to Specter. That only goes so far. Conservative groups here and across the country will pump in plenty to match Specter or come close when they don't even need to come close in the money game.