HI-01

[Lunar]

If it's an open seat and the Dems run a Haole, the GOP could pick it up

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Ah, we'll see.  I was talking about an open seat naturally.

Regarding Paterson - I never said that.  I think I was stressing that appointing members of certain groups (Upstate and Women among them) was important for Paterson to gain the factional support to win a tough primary.   I said specifically that he needed appoint a women, an Upstater, or a Hispanic.  Obviously the only two real Hispanics that would be interested in the seat - Nydia and Carrion - found they had other things to do.

And I admit the Gregg thing took me by surprise.  I think a Republican effectively counts as a minority (you do insert them as tokens) though.  Now it looks to be Locke getting the post.

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True.  Locke isn't a strategic attempt to win votes but part of a grander scheme of having a visibly diverse candidate.

What's weirdest about your accusations BRTD is why you accuse me of saying Paterson would never choose someone like Gillibrand when I had her as my official prediction since Mid-December.

Remember that I never said a Haole couldn't win HI-01, clearly that'd be a retarded thing to say.  I just think that maybe it'd be compoetitive if the Dems went that way (I don't expect them to) if the mid-term is good GOP year.  HI-01 is <19% White and >54% Asian.

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Besides, the GOP candidate is already all but declared with an easy route through the primary.

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Because you know, the REPUBLICANS ARE ALWAYS AT WAR


HEY-OHHHHHHHHHHHH



But seriously, Neil, the current Rep of HI-01 just formally declared he'll run for gov., so, this seat is now open baby!  [obscure reference if you include the Neil]


Now, here are the four Democratic potentials, via Scorecard:  former state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and former state Rep. Brian Schatz.

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Uh, dude, I think you need to chill the fuck out.  I only outlined a scenario where it could potentially be competitive.  I expect this race to go Democratic no matter who they nominate.

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All I said was one of the factors that COULD make the race competitive.  If I've said anything besides that, I was being stupid (and note, nothing has changed in the race since then so I'm not using hindsight).

Obviously if the Democrats were to nominate the Mayor of Honolulu, it wouldn't matter if he were white or an one-armed albino midget, he's be very, very likely to win.

If I were to say the race against Dodd "maybe" could be competitive, and it turns out Dodd cruises to an easy victory, you do have enough cells in your body to figure out why I'm not proven wrong, right?  If I'm making a prediction I'll avoid the qualifiers "maybe" "potentially" "could" and "possibly" "perhaps" "if" and such things, depending on context.  It's really not difficult at all to figure out what my predictions are and what my speculation about variables are.

Sorry for going to town on you (I actually edited this post down a bit to remove more cuss words) but I've had a long night and your holier-than-thou attitude simultaneously while horribly twisting my words in order to make me look retarded has me internet-aggravated. 

I get a lot of early information about races, and when things are still vague I like to speculate on what could happen, but in no way are those predictions.

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Djou will need to go above and beyond the call of duty in terms of localizing this race.  The more "Obama" gets mentioned the worse he'll do.

I'm not sure how much the residents are paying attention to the national scene, but I wonder how much Cantor's uniform "no" votes affect perceptions of moderate GOP candidate's pledges to actually be moderate.  I mean, he organized almost a complete GOP blackout of a cable television bill that passed the Senate unanimously (not that anyone noticed).

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I don't think when I speculate I'm necessarily talking about absurd probabilities though.  If a set of events were to happen (the Democrats nominate a non-establishment white guy, the Democrats have a bad year, and Djou runs a really good campaign), then the seat could be competitive.  Otherwise it won't be.  Now that the actual likely Democratic candidates have emerged, as I listed above (gasp, I'm following this race), it's becoming far less likely of a GOP pickup.  It'll still be an interesting race to watch, even if it's a blowout.

J.J. made solid predictions of what would happen. I'm simply speculating about possible conditions where a race could  be competitive, when it most likely won't be.  I mean, what else is there do do in a district so obviously Democratic besides speculate about a perfect storm of conditions where the race could be competitive?

I have a little personal experience with Hawaii, my gf's Mom repeatedly refers to me as her "Haole boyfriend," hence my usage of the term, for the record.  Not that it matters.

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Djou will need to go above and beyond the call of duty in terms of localizing this race.  The more "Obama" gets mentioned the worse he'll do.

That all depends on the public's opinion of Obama next year.

this is hawaii not some place where obama has a real chance of becoming unpopular.

Exactly, this isn't frickin Missouri

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http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/former-rep.-case-to-run-for-hawaii-seat-2009-03-28.html

Shocked?

Le sigh.  He does bounce around a lot, doesn't he?  Does he live in HI-01 now?

[Lunar]

Did he promise to move to HI-02 as politicians (McClintock, Tedisco, etc) often do?