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| | |-+  When will it end?!
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Question: What do you think will happen?
The worst Depression ever, DOW around 800, 30% unemployment, Obama drops the ball badly, does not even run for reelection.
A very bad depression. DOW around 2,000, unemployment around 15-20%, a Hooveresque Obama term.
Severe Recession. 3-4,000 DOW bottom, 15% unemployment. Obama gets trounced.
Bad recession 12% unemployment, 5-6,000 DOW bottom. Obama has a chance at re-election, but thinks aren't that great in the world.
The Economy will recover within Obama's term, be at 2004-5esque levels. Obama wins reelection by a decent margin
DOW reaches a new high by the end of Obama's term. Reagenesque victory
Huge increase in economy, a new definition of landslide for the president.
What are you talking about? The fundamentals of the economy are still fine.
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Author Topic: When will it end?!  (Read 7072 times)
yoman82
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« on: March 02, 2009, 05:46:31 pm »
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What do you think the bailout will do? Will it force us deeper into a depression or help us out? What will be the worst unemployment rates we see? Will the DOW hit 5,000? What do you think?
Personally, I think that the economy will be slightly better in four years, with the DOW around 8-9000. Not a great term, but Obama is reelected. The stimulus is a failure, but something else helps the troubled economy.
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Wall St. Wiz
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2009, 06:03:01 pm »
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I really don't know where this goes, I could see it crashing and I can also see it stabilizing and rising a bit.  All I do know is that Obama is looking like Jimmy Carter II a lot faster then I thought he ever would.  What is happening in this country today is terrifying.
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For the sake of the country, I hope that President Obama fails.
yoman82
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2009, 06:08:03 pm »
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I'm going to agree with you on that, though I have hope yet. He has actually done some good socially, though.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2009, 06:11:49 pm »
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Option 5.  Keynesian economics takes time and will eventually work.  He's cleaning up the mess of the past 28 years and spending in the RIGHT areas.  Former Rep. Dick Armey thought there would be a Depression after Clinton got in office.  Didn't buy the "doom and gloom" then, won't buy it now.
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2009, 06:26:09 pm »
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Dow hits bottom at about 4000, and a slow recovery has gone underway by 2012. It is at about 5000 by election day.

The economy is still dreadful compared to 2006/2007, but people give him credit for stabilizing the situation. He wins a landslide against an extremist and out of touch opponent.
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Wall St. Wiz
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2009, 06:36:27 pm »
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Dow hits bottom at about 4000, and a slow recovery has gone underway by 2012. It is at about 5000 by election day.

The economy is still dreadful compared to 2006/2007, but people give him credit for stabilizing the situation. He wins a landslide against an extremist and out of touch opponent.

Dude if the Dow is 5000 on election day 2012, he is going down in a landslide against whoever his opponent is. 
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For the sake of the country, I hope that President Obama fails.
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2009, 06:36:50 pm »
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voted severe...but I hoping for only a bad
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2009, 06:52:39 pm »
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Dow hits bottom at about 4000, and a slow recovery has gone underway by 2012. It is at about 5000 by election day.

The economy is still dreadful compared to 2006/2007, but people give him credit for stabilizing the situation. He wins a landslide against an extremist and out of touch opponent.

Dude if the Dow is 5000 on election day 2012, he is going down in a landslide against whoever his opponent is. 

Not true.

If there is any hint of recovery from the situation he inherited, he will win and he will win big.
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benconstine
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2009, 06:54:22 pm »
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Of the choices, I say Option 5.
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2009, 07:08:11 pm »
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Who knows. We keep hitting new bottoms each week in the DOW. It will probably take till the end of 2011 or mid 2012 before we bottom out and begin to recover. From what I read, things are so ingrained in the economy that this stimulus will do little to help us recover. The credit markets will correct themselves in three years or so. By that time, who knows what the mood of the country is in. I can't see us giving Obama as much time as we gave FDR to fumble around before we got into WWII.
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2009, 07:19:34 pm »
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Dow hits bottom at about 4000, and a slow recovery has gone underway by 2012. It is at about 5000 by election day.

The economy is still dreadful compared to 2006/2007, but people give him credit for stabilizing the situation. He wins a landslide against an extremist and out of touch opponent.

Dude if the Dow is 5000 on election day 2012, he is going down in a landslide against whoever his opponent is. 

Not true.

If there is any hint of recovery from the situation he inherited, he will win and he will win big.

Let me try to understand what you are saying.

If there is an unemployment rate of 12% and the stock market plunges to 5,000 (it gives me the chills just thinking about this), Obama can just blame everything on Bush and win 2012 in a landslide?  Sorry, but Obama is going to eventually have to take responsibility.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2009, 07:24:11 pm »
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Dow hits bottom at about 4000, and a slow recovery has gone underway by 2012. It is at about 5000 by election day.

The economy is still dreadful compared to 2006/2007, but people give him credit for stabilizing the situation. He wins a landslide against an extremist and out of touch opponent.

Dude if the Dow is 5000 on election day 2012, he is going down in a landslide against whoever his opponent is. 

Not true.

If there is any hint of recovery from the situation he inherited, he will win and he will win big.

Let me try to understand what you are saying.

If there is an unemployment rate of 12% and the stock market plunges to 5,000 (it gives me the chills just thinking about this), Obama can just blame everything on Bush and win 2012 in a landslide?  Sorry, but Obama is going to eventually have to take responsibility.

My point is that if this deep recession evolves into an even deeper recession in years 2010 and 2011, but we begin to recover in 2012, Obama stands a big chance of winning his election, probably by a wide-margin. Sure, the Democrats will likely take their beatings in the midterms, but if there is a large recovery starting in late 2011 or early 2012, President Obama will benefit from it politically.
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« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2009, 07:24:47 pm »
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Everything should bottom out around July though I'm not sure when the recovery will happen. Everything won't get back to what it was before however. The growth won't be as fast as it was before and it'll take awhile to get back to where the Dow was before the recession.
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« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2009, 07:30:16 pm »
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Things are gonna get worse through 2009 and into 2010, but by the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, the economy will start growing again, and Obama will win a landslide against some right-wing nut.
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2009, 07:30:27 pm »
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Your options skip the most likely scenario:

I expect the unemployment rate to top ou at approximately 10.8% and the DOW to bottom around 6,000 (Industrial).

Obama is toast unless the Republicans blow it (again).
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2009, 07:34:25 pm »
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Things are gonna get worse through 2009 and into 2010, but by the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, the economy will start growing again, and Obama will win a landslide against some right-wing nut.

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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2009, 07:52:16 pm »
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"Bad recession," unless the economy stabilizes by September, Obama and the Democrats have big, perhaps generational, problems.
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2009, 08:28:00 pm »
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Bad recession is my bet.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2009, 08:36:45 pm »
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"Bad recession," unless the economy stabilizes by September, Obama and the Democrats have big, perhaps generational, problems.

Hahaha... what?

I don't even know where to begin here.

Your premise is that if the economy does not improve by September, Obama will lose re-election regardless of what happens over the next 3 years?

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« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2009, 09:04:56 pm »
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Dow hits bottom at about 4000, and a slow recovery has gone underway by 2012. It is at about 5000 by election day.

The economy is still dreadful compared to 2006/2007, but people give him credit for stabilizing the situation. He wins a landslide against an extremist and out of touch opponent.

Dude if the Dow is 5000 on election day 2012, he is going down in a landslide against whoever his opponent is. 

Not true.

If there is any hint of recovery from the situation he inherited, he will win and he will win big.

Let me try to understand what you are saying.

If there is an unemployment rate of 12% and the stock market plunges to 5,000 (it gives me the chills just thinking about this), Obama can just blame everything on Bush and win 2012 in a landslide?  Sorry, but Obama is going to eventually have to take responsibility.

Well Bush never did (only in the last days of his presidency did he even begin to atone) - and that incompetent got a pass in 2004. And the economic situation Obama inherited is way, way more severe than when the dotcom bubble burst. Bush had his chance to build on the prosperity of the Clinton presidency. He didn't - and prosperity for millions of hard working Americans became but a dream. Just cut taxes for the sake of cutting them (the Republican way, more to those who greed them, less to those who need them) - and in terms of putting the economy on a sounder long term footing, they, obviously, fell short

Sometimes I think Bush just took advantage of America being "center-right" knowing full well his failings would get a pass in a way no Democrat's ever could

This president - whatever happens - as a Democrat (a pragmatic center-leftist, who I find, positively, Christian Democratic in certain respects) will be held to a higher standard than Bush ever was. And the meritocrat in me says that is exactly how it should be come 2012

Dave
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Ronnie
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« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2009, 09:14:11 pm »
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Yes, Dave, but I hope Obama did not campaign to become president just so he would be able to blame Bush for his own mistakes.  There has to be some sort of limit to how many times he can make that excuse, no?
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« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2009, 01:01:00 am »
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The last four options given are simply not realistic in my book (less than 0.0001%, maybe).

Right now, the most likely of the options to me is "Severe Recession", which would be more like Great Depression 2, and would bottom out at more like 3600 in the DOW, with 20% unemployment.  I give this option about 40% chance or so.

AS always, I would hope for the "Bad Recession" option, except this means more like 4500 on the DOW, with 15% unemployment.  It should probably be termed a depression, and would be.  I would give this option about 25% chance of occurring.

Btw, the "Very Bad Depression" is clearly a depression worse than the Great Depression and would bottom out around 1987 crash levels (i.e. 2000 in the DOW), 25-30% unemployment - a whole host of S&P 500 companies go bye-bye (which will also happen in the "Severe Recession" scenario - just not the same amount).  You need to include the fact that this type of depression has, I figure, about a 1 in 3 chance of taking out our form of government permanently (the others are, of course, much lower).  The odds of this one occurring have risen a lot of late to me - I put it at about 30% (note - higher than the good scenario).

The Worst Depression ever scenario more likely than not results in our form of government changing permanently.  It cannot be discounted, given present actions - even though I would have, in the past, put it at the level of kookdom.  I must give it a 5% chance now.
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« Reply #22 on: March 03, 2009, 01:09:50 am »
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The last four options given are simply not realistic in my book (less than 0.0001%, maybe).

Right now, the most likely of the options to me is "Severe Recession", which would be more like Great Depression 2, and would bottom out at more like 3600 in the DOW, with 20% unemployment.  I give this option about 40% chance or so.

AS always, I would hope for the "Bad Recession" option, except this means more like 4500 on the DOW, with 15% unemployment.  It should probably be termed a depression, and would be.  I would give this option about 25% chance of occurring.

Btw, the "Very Bad Depression" is clearly a depression worse than the Great Depression and would bottom out around 1987 crash levels (i.e. 2000 in the DOW), 25-30% unemployment - a whole host of S&P 500 companies go bye-bye (which will also happen in the "Severe Recession" scenario - just not the same amount).  You need to include the fact that this type of depression has, I figure, about a 1 in 3 chance of taking out our form of government permanently (the others are, of course, much lower).  The odds of this one occurring have risen a lot of late to me - I put it at about 30% (note - higher than the good scenario).

The Worst Depression ever scenario more likely than not results in our form of government changing permanently.  It cannot be discounted, given present actions - even though I would have, in the past, put it at the level of kookdom.  I must give it a 5% chance now.

Spade, should this 'doomsday' scenario occur, what form will this new government take?
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« Reply #23 on: March 03, 2009, 01:36:22 am »
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voted 'severe' though I'm not convinced that it would necessarily lead to Obama getting 'trounced'
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I wanna contribute to the chaos
I don't wanna watch and then complain,
'cause I am through finding blame
that is the decision that I have made
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« Reply #24 on: March 03, 2009, 01:53:48 am »
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Option 4 - I'm normally a semi-optimistic person.
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