When will it end?! (user search)
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  When will it end?! (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: What do you think will happen?
#1
The worst Depression ever, DOW around 800, 30% unemployment, Obama drops the ball badly, does not even run for reelection.
#2
A very bad depression. DOW around 2,000, unemployment around 15-20%, a Hooveresque Obama term.
#3
Severe Recession. 3-4,000 DOW bottom, 15% unemployment. Obama gets trounced.
#4
Bad recession 12% unemployment, 5-6,000 DOW bottom. Obama has a chance at re-election, but thinks aren't that great in the world.
#5
The Economy will recover within Obama's term, be at 2004-5esque levels. Obama wins reelection by a decent margin
#6
DOW reaches a new high by the end of Obama's term. Reagenesque victory
#7
Huge increase in economy, a new definition of landslide for the president.
#8
What are you talking about? The fundamentals of the economy are still fine.
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: When will it end?!  (Read 8334 times)
CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« on: March 02, 2009, 07:30:27 PM »

Your options skip the most likely scenario:

I expect the unemployment rate to top ou at approximately 10.8% and the DOW to bottom around 6,000 (Industrial).

Obama is toast unless the Republicans blow it (again).
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2009, 07:08:07 PM »

I'm going to be cautious when it comes to predicting the economic development. I will say, however, that it's going to be pretty damn bad over the next couple of years. If you look at how some of the interest rates are behaving right now, the implications are pretty scary...like Sam I believe there is a definite possibility of "blood in the streets" This is clearly going to be the worse global crisis since the Great Depression (and it is concievable that it might equal or surpass even that) and we all know what that led to. Hopefully, we have learned something since then but I'm not going to bet money on it.

Then again, I'm not quite as pessimistic as Sam. I do believe there is more competence to deal with this stuff today than there used to be. On the fundamental level I'm an optimist who believe that society gets progressively better at dealing with this stuff. So I'm not giving up on the idea that we can manage our way through "only" a deep economic crisis.

When it comes to the political side, it will be a spin-game. FDR managed to spin things in his own favour pretty efficiently and it remained a Democratic weapon for decades. The Swedish conservatives have failed spectuarly in the past, but are doing better now. It depends on whether Obama can achieve anything in resisting the down-turn and get people to believe it.

Sorry Gustaf, but Sam is essentially correct.

While the Obamanations will tell you that they have a solution to all problems (more government), they simply do not have any understanding of reality.

They simply have faith that government will solve all problems.

The aborigines in New Guinea had more reason to adhere to the 'cargo cults.'
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2009, 05:23:21 PM »

Your options skip the most likely scenario:

I expect the unemployment rate to top ou at approximately 10.8% and the DOW to bottom around 6,000 (Industrial).

Obama is toast unless the Republicans blow it (again).

Why would that mean he's toast? In November of 2012, the public isn't going to care about the state of the economy as of 2009. As disastrous as Obama's agenda is, it would be incredible if his policies managed to prevent a recovery by late 2012.

Three things Phil,

First, nice to see you posting again.

Second, it takes time for a recovery to be fully underway.

Third, the current recession is longer and more severe than most, and may well turn into a depression.
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