What's your guess RE: current state-by-state GOP primary map?

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/Opinion Research recently did a national 2012 GOP primary poll, which showed Palin narrowly leading, with Huckabee and Romney pretty close behind....more or less consistent with other 2012 polls.

There have been no state-by-state 2012 polls conducted yet.  But here's a question: What would the map look like if your favorite polling firm were to conduct 2012 GOP primary polls right now?  Where do you think Huck, Palin, and Romney respectively would be leading?  (I'm assuming that no other prospective 2012 candidates would lead in any poll outside of their home states right now, though feel free to disagree.)

I can guess as to what a national Huck vs. Romney map would look like, but Palin kinda complicates things.  I'm not really sure what the Palin states would be.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Honestly in a Huckabee/Palin/Romney race I don't see Palin winning anything. Huckabee would take Iowa, Romney would sweep New Hampshire, and from then on it would be a race between Huckabee and Romney.

Romney would sweep in the West/Midwest especially where mormon voters give him an advantage and Huckabee once again sweeps the South off it's feet. It's hard to say who would win but I'd be betting on Huckabee.

[Mr. Morden]

Honestly in a Huckabee/Palin/Romney race I don't see Palin winning anything. Huckabee would take Iowa, Romney would sweep New Hampshire, and from then on it would be a race between Huckabee and Romney.

But I'm not asking about what you predict would ultimately happen in 2012, once the campaign plays itself out.  I'm asking about what states you think she's leading in *right now*, in 2009.  If, hypothetically, a pollster were to be doing state-by-state polling right now, Palin would certainly be leading in a lot of states, given that all the national polls have her tied with Huckabee/Romney, or slightly ahead of them.

[The Ex-Factor]

Honestly in a Huckabee/Palin/Romney race I don't see Palin winning anything. Huckabee would take Iowa, Romney would sweep New Hampshire, and from then on it would be a race between Huckabee and Romney.

Romney would sweep in the West/Midwest especially where mormon voters give him an advantage and Huckabee once again sweeps the South off it's feet. It's hard to say who would win but I'd be betting on Huckabee.

^ But then if the only three plausible candidates are Romney/Huckabee/Palin, Romney sweeps the entire Northeast. And it wouldn't be too hard to envision Huckabee and Palin splitting the evangelical vote everywhere, letting Romney clean up among everyone else.

As for the original question, I think Romney would be winning a lot of the Democratic states, such as the Northeast, the Midwest, and California. with Palin doing relatively well in the West and Huckabee cleaning up shop the South. In that scenario Romney probably wins, if there are no other candidates to siphon votes away from the top 3.

[Rob]

Romney = red
Palin = green
Huckster = blue

[Antonio the Sixth]

More like this :

[Lief 🗽]

[Marokai Backbeat]

I still don't see Palin actually winning.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Honestly in a Huckabee/Palin/Romney race I don't see Palin winning anything. Huckabee would take Iowa, Romney would sweep New Hampshire, and from then on it would be a race between Huckabee and Romney.

Romney would sweep in the West/Midwest especially where mormon voters give him an advantage and Huckabee once again sweeps the South off it's feet. It's hard to say who would win but I'd be betting on Huckabee.

This is right. As to Mr. Morden's response, it is hard to say how the polls go, but I still see Palin falling behind quickly. Palin might have the lead (in the polls) on a national basis. But the early primaries, like IA and NH, would still go to Huckabee and Romney, which leads one of them to win instead of Palin (and I too think that Huckabee would win).

[tmthforu94]

Romney: Blue
Huckabee: Red
Palin: Green

[Josh/Devilman88]

[Marokai Backbeat]

Green: Palin
Blue: Huckabee
Red: Romney

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I can't see Huckabee or Palin winning, they would split the hard right wing of the party. 

Huckabee would win Iowa, Romney would win New Hampshire....and the rest....

Green for Romney, Blue for Huckabee

I don't even know who wins in this scenario.  Guessing Huck. 

[Boris]

Hopefully Palin wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hamshpire, and Huckabee wins South Carolina and then the three proceed to split the remaining delegates and estimated popular vote relatively evenly so we can all witness a brokered convention.

[Mr. Morden]

Guys, this isn't a "scenario".  It's not a speculative "what would happen if these three candidates ran?".

It's "What do you think the *current* state-by-state polls would likely be saying if we *had* state-by-state polls?"  That is, polls that would hypothetically be taken today, in March 2009.

National polls in late 2008 / early 2009 have seemed to show Palin tied with Huck / Romney or slightly ahead.  Therefore, if she's ahead or tied for the lead nationally, she must be leading in a lot of states.  So these maps that show her leading in only Alaska and nowhere else (or Alaska and just a handful of other states) are wildly unrealistic.

Whether you think Palin will do poorly in three years if she ends up running is beside the point.  She's doing well in polls right now, so she must be leading *somewhere*.

[pbrower2a]

... now blank out the states that voted for Obama by 10% or more in 2008. These will be tough to crack for any GOP candidate in 2012.

I can imagine a third-party candidate emerging as that happens, and Huckabee would differ from Strom Thurmond '48 and George Wallace '68 largely in rejecting racism.

I have little knowledge of what the Republican Party is like in California -- maybe the Mormons (a big chunk of the GOP in California) would guarantee the primary for Romney.

Does anyone notice that Romney could win the Republican nomination largely by winning states that have practically no chance of voting for any Republican in 2012?

[anvi]

I agree that, if Palin is polling slightly ahead nationally, she must be doing well in lots of states, but it's hard for me to guess which ones exactly they are.  I think she would poll very well in Idaho (where she was born and later got a college degree) and Alaska.  I think she probably polls well in Michigan (Palin and McCain got huge crowds in rural and small-mid-sized town Michigan when they campained there) and probably Pennsylvania and Virginia for the same reason.  There is also the question how much Palin's national lead and presumably her lead in some populous states might be attributable to her broad support among conservative and Republican women, particularly given her national name-recognition having been in the general election ticket.  

Anyway, if polls were being conducted nationwide, here is my general sense of where candidates who lead in those polls would be doing well.

Romney polls ahead of the others in the northeast (Main, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York), large parts of the rustbelt and midwestern states (Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, probably the Dakotas) and the West (Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, New Mexico).

Huckabee polls ahead in most of the south (from South Carolina through Texas and in West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee, and of course he probably still does well in Iowa.

Palin polls well in Pennsylvania, runs close to Romney in Michigan and Wisconsin, polls slightly ahead in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma, and runs closer to Romney in the Western states than Huckabee does.

That's my shot-in-the-dark guess about where state polls would fall were they taken now.  Palin's slim lead over Romney nationwide owes greatly to the fact that in a lot of populous and delegate-rich states, she runs neck-and-neck with him.  But if you counted up the delegates based on state-polling, Romney probably runs slightly ahead of both.

[Antonio the Sixth]

... now blank out the states that voted for Obama by 10% or more in 2008. These will be tough to crack for any GOP candidate in 2012.

I can imagine a third-party candidate emerging as that happens, and Huckabee would differ from Strom Thurmond '48 and George Wallace '68 largely in rejecting racism.

I have little knowledge of what the Republican Party is like in California -- maybe the Mormons (a big chunk of the GOP in California) would guarantee the primary for Romney.

Does anyone notice that Romney could win the Republican nomination largely by winning states that have practically no chance of voting for any Republican in 2012?

Yes, as Obama won the nomination by winning solid republican strongholds - deeep sout and west. It actually doesn't mean anything, and it could help - although I don't think so - to improve the republican score in these states.

[Mr. Morden]

I think people are being a bit generous to Romney.  Given a poll like the latest CNN poll, which listed Huck, Romney, Palin, and Jindal as options, I'm thinking you might see something like this, if Palin is a bit ahead of Huck and Romney nationally:

Jindal=gray
Romney=red
Huckabee=blue
Palin=green

Romney states actually still have quite a large combined population, but they're less Republican than the other states, and I'm thinking that Romney would be 3rd place in a lot of the Huckabee and Palin states.

Also, a lot of people are assigning Iowa to Palin, but I would think that Huckabee would most likely be leading there right now.  After all, unlike Huckabee and Romney, Palin didn't spend the better part of a year campaigning there already.  It's not likely to be one of Palin's better states, relative to the other two.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Romney
Palin
Huckabee
Huntsman
Sanford

[Mr. Morden]

Romney
Palin
Huckabee
Huntsman
Sanford

Lol, you think more than a tiny fraction of the voters in, say, Texas or Missouri have any clue who Sanford is?

[big bad fab]

CURRENT

Florida's primary would be won by Romney.

Not sure at all of Delaware and DC....

[defe07]

... now blank out the states that voted for Obama by 10% or more in 2008. These will be tough to crack for any GOP candidate in 2012.

I can imagine a third-party candidate emerging as that happens, and Huckabee would differ from Strom Thurmond '48 and George Wallace '68 largely in rejecting racism.

I have little knowledge of what the Republican Party is like in California -- maybe the Mormons (a big chunk of the GOP in California) would guarantee the primary for Romney.

Does anyone notice that Romney could win the Republican nomination largely by winning states that have practically no chance of voting for any Republican in 2012?

You actually think that Huckabee could run as a third party candidate? If so, how would he do?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have little knowledge of what the Republican Party is like in California -- maybe the Mormons (a big chunk of the GOP in California) would guarantee the primary for Romney.

Does anyone notice that Romney could win the Republican nomination largely by winning states that have practically no chance of voting for any Republican in 2012?

No Mormons are not "a big chunk" of the GOP in California, and if they could deliver it Romney in the primary, why didn't he take in 2008?

[TomC]