Some of this discussion is pushing me towards making a habit in predictions of always having a best and worst case scenario for the candidates when making predictions. Though I have a weird feeling that even having both up might not let me be free of accusations of hackery.
Ok, here I go. First best case Dean scenario:
Reasoning: 50 state strategy works despite the tough political climate. Dean diffuses the gun issue early on in order to do well in the west and doesn't make any significant gaffs. And somehow Gephart destroys Cheney in the VP debate. I'm not quite sure how that happens, but I can dream.
Now worst case for Dean:
In this situation, Dean tries for the 50 state go, but runs short on money due to inept campaign mannagers, and thus isn't able to hold a defense in some normally strong dem areas of the country. He gaffs like crazy and is destroyed in the debates. DE and CT are narrow wins for Bush and only happen as a particularly nasty national smear of Dean (doesn't matter really, anything from being a loony liberal to eating babies) causes upsets in strange places.
