New Poll: Christie Up 9!!
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:27:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  New Poll: Christie Up 9!!
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: New Poll: Christie Up 9!!  (Read 12058 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2009, 03:28:43 PM »

Frankly, investment banker & related occupations against anyone (other than an estate agent, perhaps) presumably equals trouble right now.

New Jersey has had tax revolts before and will have one again. The Democrats have been in power long enough--total control since 2003, dominance since 2001--for people to consider kicking them out.

Ah, so New Jersey might be serious this time. It's an off-year election also, so that presumably counts for something.

It's certainly possible, although I still am not convinced. Perhaps I just fail to see what Corzine has done wrong (as opposed to what plenty of other people have).
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2009, 06:28:45 PM »

When it comes down to polling in NJ, its basically just an attempt to screw around with Republicans.

I'm inclined to agree and I hate letting myself fall into these traps year after year, but this one seems to be different.  We haven't led by this much in many many years.  Whitman didn't even lead by this much.  I think just this once I'll let myself get excited despite the rule I set for myself not to.
I agree with this, Kean never lead by anything close to this.  For the record FDU nailed Menendez's margin of victory in 2006 and had the exact, EXACT margin of 18 points for Obama.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2009, 11:07:24 AM »

I would dare say that Christie winning would be good for both parties down the road.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2009, 11:12:22 AM »

I would dare say that Christie winning would be good for both parties down the road.

Well, it'd be bad for the Democrats because it could be spun as very bad news for them, especially considering that they are currently at a disadvantage in the two other big races in 2009, New York City and Virginia (although VA may change, we'll see).
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2009, 11:12:43 AM »

I assumed so too, but the facts don't back that up

They nailed, and I mean exactly nailed, 2006 and 2008
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: March 08, 2009, 12:19:20 PM »

I assumed so too, but the facts don't back that up

They nailed, and I mean exactly nailed, 2006 and 2008

When were those polls taken?  The polls right before Election day traditionally aren't all that bad in NJ.  However, further out its a different story.  Granted its the same in almost all races, polls closer in are going to be more accurate than polls further out, but NJ takes it to a whole new extreme in that the NJ polls this far out are horrendous.  Also while Kean's margin may not have been quite this high it was pretty close and that was much closer to election day than this poll.
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: March 08, 2009, 01:32:24 PM »

For reference, the March polls in Menendez/Kean showed the following:

D+4, R+2, D+5 or an average of D+2.3

Also known as an 11.3% swing from Kean's numbers to Christie's
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2009, 04:32:24 PM »

Just for a little heads up, Rasmussen should be in the field this week(most likely Friday) and will have results by Sunday.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2009, 05:23:34 PM »

In case anyone was wondering, Christie already has the line in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, Burlington, and Camden Counties.

He will easily waltz through the primary without having to spend much if any money, which will leave him in good position against Corzine.
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2009, 05:47:53 PM »

In case anyone was wondering, Christie already has the line in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, Burlington, and Camden Counties.
I believe he has Bergen or near sown it up too
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2009, 09:45:10 AM »

I would dare say that Christie winning would be good for both parties down the road.

Well, it'd be bad for the Democrats because it could be spun as very bad news for them, especially considering that they are currently at a disadvantage in the two other big races in 2009, New York City and Virginia (although VA may change, we'll see).

No question, Democrats losing New Jersey is bad for Democrats at the decade level.  Though New Jersey has independent redistricting, the current State Legislature lines were drawn to favor Democrats, so perhaps this means the next set of lines will be more fair.  In any case, new lines mean a high number of retirements in 2013.

In any case, the main problem for New Jersey Republicans since 2001 has been the fact that they simply have no money and no major fundraiser to help level the field—the gap is surprisingly brutal.  With a GOP Governor, the party has a real shot to gain back ground they never should have lost in the first place.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2009, 12:35:30 PM »

I said down the road, not immediately.
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2009, 06:37:56 PM »

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news.  That's probably good for Christie, he doesn't want to have to spend early.  He probably blew all his money on Mickey D's anyway
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2009, 06:41:00 PM »

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2009, 06:48:43 PM »

Will you be supporting Corzine?
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2009, 06:51:36 PM »

me? not really, although it'd be amusing to see Corzine win from some of DWTL's earlier crazy comments, as I've said.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2009, 06:55:42 PM »

I see.

I can't stand him. LOL
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2009, 07:06:35 PM »

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets
News 12 New Jersey?
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2009, 07:34:29 PM »

In case anyone was wondering, Christie already has the line in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, Burlington, and Camden Counties.

He will easily waltz through the primary without having to spend much if any money, which will leave him in good position against Corzine.

No surprise. The only county Christie might not get the line in is Bergen, but Lonegan isn't a serious threat.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: March 10, 2009, 07:36:49 PM »

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets
News 12 New Jersey?

Ah, my bad (no need for the bold, I remember New Jersey is in New Jersey).

It'd be interested to compare coverage to Virginia, LA, and NYC
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: March 10, 2009, 07:56:40 PM »

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets
News 12 New Jersey?

Ah, my bad (no need for the bold, I remember New Jersey is in New Jersey).

It'd be interested to compare coverage to Virginia, LA, and NYC
The bold was for emphasis Smiley

I also have not heard much on NYC since the whole uproar over the term limit removal
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: March 10, 2009, 08:15:16 PM »

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets
News 12 New Jersey?

Ah, my bad (no need for the bold, I remember New Jersey is in New Jersey).

It'd be interested to compare coverage to Virginia, LA, and NYC
The bold was for emphasis Smiley

I also have not heard much on NYC since the whole uproar over the term limit removal

I was vaguely involved in some L.A. city council and such races and the only race that matters, the Democratic primary, was last Tuesday.  I don't think it  really made the news, even though all of the competitive elections just happened and everyone who won is essentially [whatever]-elect.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: March 11, 2009, 06:00:36 PM »

Qunnipiac released a poll today on the budget, and I would have to imagine that they asked a question about the election, so hopefully that will get released tomorrow.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 14 queries.