LA-Sen (R2k/Daily Kos): Vitter ahead, but not by a lot

[Lunar]

Another epic fail for DailyKos not even being able to identify the Democratic Challenger most likely to get the nomination.  I mean, it takes, what, five seconds of Google searching?

Bernhardt, a CEO of a Fortune 500, is itching to drop millions against Vitter.  Considering Melancon isn't looking to run (unfortunately, we'd have a far better chance at this seat with a Cajun), this is what we get.

I mean, obviously he'd have low name ID, but you could substitute in some information (businessman, etc) to get a general idea.

[Lunar]

49/42 favorabilities isn't really that good...

But it matters where them's coming from, and that's where the news improves.

Also, this poll missed that Focus on the Family guy thinking about challenging Vitter.

[Lunar]

he's been utterly silent.

Maybe the stronger Democratic candidates will emerge if Vitter looks weak and doesn't look like he's going to be beaten in the primary.  But I'm skeptical.

One good thing for Democrats is that Vitter has become the most conservative Senator in the Senate (in an attempt to fight off primary challengers), making it possibly a little easier to capture the idealogical center of Louisiana.

[Lunar]

Diapers wants to defund Planned Parenthood.

He is trying to be the #1 conservative Senator, especially socially conservative, to prevent himself from being primaried from the right.  He's really going above and beyond the call of duty IMO but I doubt anyone in Louisiana has noticed yet that he was one of the, what, two people, to reject Hillary's candidacy? 

[Lunar]

Yeah but he didn't try and like out-conservative McConnell previously.  It's actually pretty silly.

I'd say it's significantly more silly than Gillibrand's tack to the left since Vitter's constituency hasn't changed.

[Lunar]

Louisiana is the worst state in the Union if they re-elect diaper-Dave.

That's already the most likely scenario given the current track of things.

And Louisiana likes its politicians with a little gruff around the edges.

[Lunar]

Landrieu got hit by endless commercials calling her openly corrupt (and Obama tanked in that state) but no one cared.

Hell, if Dollar Bill Jefferson,  who had $90k in his freezer when the government knocked their way into his house, had his election on November instead of a special election when no one turned out, he would have easily been reelected.  As it was, he still almost won.

[Lunar]

Besides, the "South" that is becoming part of the "Democratic wave" is the Atlantic seaboard, including South Carolina, not all of the South.  Clearly Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent Democrat and merely did ok while Obama did far worse than expected in every Southern state without a sizable black population.  Look at Missouri or even Arkansas.


I'm also not sure how well Landrireu would have done if her last name was something like Landon.  She probably still would have won, but there's a rule of Cajun voting that all else being equal you back the Cajun

[Lunar]

true dat

[Lunar]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=22&year=2007&f=1&off=6

:

Kershaw is cajun.

[Lunar]

Well, Missouri probably shouldn't be in the list because I feel it's trending Democratic at the state level but away from the Democrats at the national level.  The fact that Obama almost won is actually indicative of trend in the opposite direction because over Obama's dominating win nationally.