I think the key here is really Ohio. If Bush takes Florida in November, Ohio is essentially a must-win for the Democrats. Talk about piecing it together with NH, NV, and WV while holding IA, WS and NM is very speculative - a big state like Ohio gives room for error.
And in Ohio, it would seem that Edwards has the edge. The jobs issue is strong, and the southern, Appalachian region of the state will feel more comfortable with a southern candidate. If he can win this state on Tuesday, I think he gains critical momentum.
I think we're forgetting that Dems will probably have a better turnout then republicans this time around. Democrats I know are PISSED. IA and WI have a good number of dem voters, I don't think hanging on to those 2 states will be a problem. NM will be tough. I really think Kerry has to just pick up Ohio, and it really shouldn't be THAT hard. The job loss there is tremendous. A little more bad news for Bush and Ohio is going into my strong Kerry category.
