France, 2002 : Jospin qualified for the 2nd round

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I assume Chirac would have performed better than Sarkozy did out west, in regions like Bretagne, Poitou, Limousin (obviously), parts of Aquitaine, and parts of IdF. He would have done worse than Sarkozy out east, in places like Alsace, Picardie, Champagne, Lorraine, or NPdC.

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I used a compilation of 1995 and 2007 electoral maps, giving a little advantage to Jospin because of the right trends of these two maps.

You need to remember that Chirac and Sarkozy were two quite different candidates with, in some cases, very different regional appeals. Have a look at a swing or trend map from 1995 to 2007 and you'll see my point.