Kerry "won" - No minds were changed say ABC poll

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

You're saying Kerry didn't "win" after what, a whole 14 hrs. since the debate?  Yes, Kerry did win here, because those swing voters that might have been leaning Bush for the last few weeks are going to give him a second look, and with the history of Kerry saving his best for last, they'll like what they see.  

[© tweed]

Which would be the 45% already voting for him.

How come Bush is only 21-17 Fav-UnFav then?

[A18]

Bush isn't a good speaker. Kerry did better at that, obviously.

Kerry needed to hit a homerun to make this race close again, and he definitely didn't do that. Kerry sounded more down to earth that usual, but all that could do is stop the bleeding.

[Inmate Trump]

Kerry, to me, seemed more presidential than the president.  I don't like Kerry, but he won this debate and Bush lost it; I don't think anyone can really argue that.  The question is by how much did he win?  I don't really know.  Most people are saying "not by enough."

If I was just coming into this election without any prior knowledge of either candidate, after watching this debate, I would rather have Kerry in the White House making the tough decisions.

That said, I *do* have prior knowledge about the candidates, and (for now) I'm still sticking with Bush--like him or not, you'll never question where he stands on something.

[A18]

I think Bush won. Even if Kerry did better, which I guess he did since everyone else here seems to think so, the election is over unless Kerry can pull off something big, which he sure didn't do last night.

[Inmate Trump]

I think Bush won. Even if Kerry did better, which I guess he did since everyone else here seems to think so, the election is over unless Kerry can pull off something big, which he sure didn't do last night.

Kerry didn't have a big win, and perhaps it was not big enough to put him back in the lead in the polls--this time.  The next debate is on domestic policy, Kerry's turf.  I think he'll win it.  And that could boost him into a clear lead over Bush.

[ATFFL]

I think Bush won. Even if Kerry did better, which I guess he did since everyone else here seems to think so, the election is over unless Kerry can pull off something big, which he sure didn't do last night.

Kerry didn't have a big win, and perhaps it was not big enough to put him back in the lead in the polls--this time.  The next debate is on domestic policy, Kerry's turf.  I think he'll win it.  And that could boost him into a clear lead over Bush.

The next debate is the town hall style, followed by the somestic policy.  And less people will watch.

The next two debates are less about winning than they are about not giving your opponent a sound byte they can use to kill you.

[A18]

I think Bush won. Even if Kerry did better, which I guess he did since everyone else here seems to think so, the election is over unless Kerry can pull off something big, which he sure didn't do last night.

Kerry didn't have a big win, and perhaps it was not big enough to put him back in the lead in the polls--this time.  The next debate is on domestic policy, Kerry's turf.  I think he'll win it.  And that could boost him into a clear lead over Bush.

By doing what? Talking about his 1.5 trillion dollar health care plan?

He's not even close, much less ahead.

[© tweed]

I think Bush won. Even if Kerry did better, which I guess he did since everyone else here seems to think so, the election is over unless Kerry can pull off something big, which he sure didn't do last night.

Kerry didn't have a big win, and perhaps it was not big enough to put him back in the lead in the polls--this time.  The next debate is on domestic policy, Kerry's turf.  I think he'll win it.  And that could boost him into a clear lead over Bush.

By doing what? Talking about his 1.5 trillion dollar health care plan?

He's not even close, much less ahead.

Kerry is in a good position in the domestic debate because he can make empty promises that there is no way in the world he can pay for.  And if Bush says 'you can't pay for that!!!!' Kerry can just say 'given a 520 billion dollar defecit I could pay for alot of things.'

[zachman]

Kerry is in a good position in the domestic debate because he can make empty promises that there is no way in the world he can pay for.  

This option gave Bush the opportunities he wanted to talk of moderate widespread government spending reforms in 2000. Kerry has the advantage on this one by being the challenger this time around.

[phillies]

It appeared to me that each man won in the hearts of his supporters, strengthening his own people. (I do not like either of them.)  There may be slower fallout from people who were not deeply committed and may move one way or the other.  Bush/Kerry also established that they are the 'continue the war with Iraq' candidate, which may after a bit strengthen the antiwar candidates Badnarik, Nader, and Cobb (who is in the ballot in far fewer states than Badnarik or Nader).

[Nym90]

Which would be the 45% already voting for him.

By that logic, Bush will only get 21% of the vote, as that was the percentage who had a more favorable opinion of him.

Kerry did better on this measure than any candidate since Perot in 1992 (when 63% had a more favorable impression of him).

Also a slight correction to Tweed's numbers...for Kerry, it was 46% more favorable, 13% less favorable. For Bush it was 21% more/17% less.

[© tweed]

Also a slight correction to Tweed's numbers...for Kerry, it was 46% more favorable, 13% less favorable. For Bush it was 21% more/17% less.

I was going by memory

[Democratic Hawk]

Why doesn't the rest of world send money to the Kerry Campaign? Canadians can also cross the boarder into places like Wisconsin and New Hampshire and do some door drops.

I also think letting the American Public know that 90% of the free world favors Kerry over Bush helps the Foreign policy stand of Kerry and his ability to work with other world leaders.

Damn, we got a lot of stupid people in this country, I am about ready to move to Canada, I cannot stand the war-mongers and nationalists much longer.

Most people in this country don't give a good goddamn what 90% of the world thinks.

Well I think it's time you did or is suit you to have a President who commands scant respect throughout the world?

Many polls show that Americans ACTUALLY DO care about how the rest of the world perceive them but, it's not a decisive factor in determining how they vote.

America deserves a President worthy of international acclaim - not ridicule and contempt?

Having had an American grandfather I care deeply about America.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Kerry made a substantial gain tonight whether or not he actually picked up any committed support.

It sounds like most undecided voters are saying "I'm still undecided, but I really want to see the third debate now."  This is exactly what Kerry needs.  The fact is that most Americans support Bush's framing of the war  (being resolute against evil) more than Kerry's (building alliances).  That undecided voters will be making their decision based on Kerry's strong issues rather than Bush's is great for Democrats.

Well said Nick.

Bush did himself no favours in the debate and Kerry certainly didn't do himself any harm. Even though I suspect that Bush continues to lead on foreign policy, Kerry may well have significantly closed the gap.

If Bush can't beat Kerry in a foreign policy debate, I don't fancy his chances in the other two.

Democrats have every reason to be feeling more confident. Bush walked into that debate thinking that Kerry didn't stand a chance against him on foreign policy - he was wrong.

Dave

[shankbear]

I just get all tingly thinking of Kerry Neville Chamberlain in the most powerful job in the world.

[agcatter]

Scares the sh**t out of me.

[Friar]

Keryr won - No minds changedn

It can very well be ture but in the after debate polls  Kerry improved his numbers in some crucial areas concerning the national security and he is very close to where he was before the Swift Boat ads started.

And we remember he was even or leading Bush at that time.

I said in another thread that trend takes time. Give it a week and we'll see if there is a gain or not.

[ATFFL]

There are 2 ways numbers improve after an event like the debate, a spike and a bounce.  A spike should appear in overnight samples and polls taken a day or two after the event.  Often these are artificial (see the CBS "poll" after the Edwards pick.)

The bounce comes after a week or so when the electorate has had time to internalize the event.   Sometimes the bounce is counterintuitive, like Kerry losing ground from his convention.   Sometimes it is overstated and has a lot of loose support that will not stick around much longer.