NY-20 Final Predictions
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Author Topic: NY-20 Final Predictions  (Read 9359 times)
Lunar
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« on: March 30, 2009, 09:52:43 AM »
« edited: March 30, 2009, 09:58:49 AM by Lunar »
Make them by noon tomorrow.

I was originally going to say Tedisco by 5.24%, but it seems like his campaign is in panic even though there has been more money funneling into the race for his candidacy.  With Gillibrand's GOTV robocalls and Murphy's flawless campaign etcetera etcetera, I might have have to give this to Murphy by the same amount.  The only reason I do this is because I'm oddly suspecting that, unlike most of America, NY-20 always-voters might not break that hard for the GOP.  Especially with the GOP and third parties going all-out anti-businessman in their messaging, which is a rather confusing message given the source.


So, yeah, Murphy by 5.24% although it could easily be Tedisco by that same amount or more.  Meh, it's more fun to predict something optimistic anyway.

We'll see.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2009, 10:26:58 AM »
The problem with the GOP Always Voters thesis is that, in areas like this one, a large number of them has voted Democratic in 2006 and 2008.

Lunar went with Murphy by 5.24? Okay, I'll say 5.25. Grin
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2009, 10:31:36 AM »
Murphy: 51.5%
Tedisco: 48.5%
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PGSable
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2009, 10:51:40 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2009, 10:54:36 AM by PGSable »
Murphy 51.25%
Tedisco 48.75%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2009, 11:22:56 AM »
Murphy (D): 52.31%
Tedisco (R): 47.69%
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2009, 11:26:44 AM »
Not a Tedisco prediction yet?  He has a very good chance at winning.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2009, 11:28:18 AM »
I have no clue - really.  Except I expect it to be close (+/-5%).

I've given up on trying to make predictions for special elections, honestly.  It's too difficult.
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Franzl
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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2009, 11:44:08 AM »
Quote from: Lunar on March 30, 2009, 11:26:44 AM
Not a Tedisco prediction yet?  He has a very good chance at winning.

and yet your prediction is 0.01% from the best Murphy prediction yet Smiley
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Rowan
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2009, 11:57:16 AM »
Murphy 51.15%
Tedisco 48.85%

Anybody know the recount rules for NY?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2009, 12:02:36 PM »
Tedisco - 51%
Murphy - 49%
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Јas
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2009, 12:28:10 PM »
Quote from: W. Kaninchen on March 30, 2009, 10:26:58 AM
The problem with the GOP Always Voters thesis is that, in areas like this one, a large number of them has voted Democratic in 2006 and 2008.

Lunar went with Murphy by 5.24? Okay, I'll say 5.25. Grin

I call Murphy by 5.23% Wink
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2009, 12:29:27 PM »
I'm still confident, despite the small window.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2009, 12:47:29 PM »
Murphy- 50.3%
Tedisco- 49.7%
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2009, 12:50:13 PM »
Tedisco- 53.2%
Murphy- 46.8%
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2009, 01:01:38 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2009, 01:48:49 PM by Gravity is a Choice »
Murphy - 51.72%
Tedisco - 48.28%
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Boris
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« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2009, 01:15:28 PM »
Murphy - 51.74%
Tedisco - 48.26%
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2009, 01:20:44 PM »
Upstate New York is becoming the Dixie of the Republican Party.

Rounded...
Murphy - 53%
Tedisco - 47%
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BRTD
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« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2009, 01:49:09 PM »
Just updated mine thanks to Boris.
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Purple State
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« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2009, 02:29:40 PM »
Murphy - 51.34
Tedisco - 48.66
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Smash255
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« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2009, 02:58:49 PM »
Murphy 53.14
Tedisco 46.86
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Bacon King
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« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2009, 03:27:47 PM »
Tedisco 49.83
Murphy 50.17

lol
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2009, 05:53:38 PM »
50.22 Murphy - 49.78 Tedisco
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2009, 06:03:42 PM »
Tedisco 53
Murphy 47
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2009, 06:46:47 PM »
Tedisco 52.73%
Murphy 47.27%
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2009, 06:50:46 PM »
My Prediction

Tedisco 50%
Murphy 50%

I say this for several reasons. First I am just too unsure to commit to either one of them. Second I beleive this will be extremely close. Thirdly I think it would be absolutely hilarious to have a second Minnesota in the less then a year.
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