WWIII breaks out, why and what are the sides?

[12th Doctor]

Of course, Eastern EU commitment to defeating the Russians versus Western European lack of enthusiasm (save, of course, Britain) would likely lead to the eventual downfall of the EU as anything more than a Model UN and trading pact, at least in all but the founding member states.  The Turks and Poles will have put most of the grunt work into defeating the Russian menace, and with Russia sent back into its hole once and for all, and Polish and Turkish power reestablished, their entire reason for having signed onto the EU will seem a memory.

The Chinese would suffer the largest blow of the victor nations, as the war would likely have a massively destabilizing effect on their economy and society.  The efforts to both needed to fight the war will send the massive, rapid economic growth required to maintain the status quo to a screeching halt.  People without jobs would demand reforms, and the final democratization of China would likely be around the corner.

[12th Doctor]

Sorry dead, I think China could whip the US and the UK combined, easily.

Highly unlikely.  As I pointed out in my scenario, China lacks the logistical capacity to carry out a large scale war outside the built up areas of the Asian east coast.  Wars require logistical capacity, and it is the primary thing China lacks.  Even if they could raise an army the size of the United States population, how would they feed and equip it?

It's a scare scenario constructed by people who lack an adequate command of the facts, of knowledge of military operations, beyond tactics and moving around lines on a map.  I suck at logistics, but I understand that you need them.

You know what else you need?  Training.  You know why so many Islamic terrorists in Iraq have gone to suicide bombing?  Because our guys were killing their "soldiers" way to easily.  Two weeks spent learning how to fire and reload an AK-47 (keeping in mind that many of these people come in with little knowledge of how to use, clean and take care of firearms) does not make you into a solider.  Their guys are pathetically bad in the field, because they lack the training that United States Military Personnel have.  A huge part of the reason that U.S. casualties have gone way down in recent military engagements is proper training in weapons and tactics.  If the Chinese just started plucking people to fight us, their numbers would carry them along way, but with a kill ratio of 1 U.S. Solider per 20-30 Chinese, we would have the upper hand.

And that it just in ground to ground combat.  To suggest that the Chinese Navy has a chance against the United States and British Navies is laughable.  Same with the Air Forces.

And lastly, again, a war between the United States and China makes no sense for China.  Their economy depends on the Pacific Rim trade.  Without it, their economy and society would collapse in an instant.

[12th Doctor]

Hard to see the Russians and the Chinese staying on the same side for very long.

The fact that most people assume that Russia and China would even get along at all is understandable, but completely daft.

It's understandable, because average Westerners, particularly Americans, who have no understanding of global political undertones have a tendency to assume that the groups that seem most foriegn to them, and have some ability, must be plotting, together, against them.

In fact, Russian and Chinese interests not only don't match up, but in most cases are opposed to one another.  This goes back years and years.  Richard Nixon understood this fact well, and did everything he could to further the rift.

[GMantis]

Supersoulty, you rather nicely demolished the pacific rim scenario, then slipped into fantasy yourself.
Could you explain what could Russia possibly gain from such a confrontation? And why do you think that Russian leadership is completely insane?
And the idea that China would participate in a war against Russia is even more insane than them plotting together against the West. China is trying to develop its economy, not to serve as canonfodder for the west, as you envisage them in such a case.
NATO and Russia still have their nuclear arsenals. While they exist, there won't be a direct war between the two.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Coalition of the W.I.L.L.I.N.G.
United States
United Kingdom
Australia
Japan
Poland
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Afghanistan
Iraq

Axis of E.V.I.L.
Russia
China
France
Iran
North Korea
Syria
Venezuela
Cuba

Neutral (anti-American)
Everyone else

Oh, wait... that's a very pre-Obama scenario, isn't it? Those were the days...




As for a more serious scenario, which is at least somewhat plausible:

United States vs. China... maybe also including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea on the American side and North Korea on the Chinese side. But even this one is stretching it a bit.

[12th Doctor]

Supersoulty, you rather nicely demolished the pacific rim scenario, then slipped into fantasy yourself.
Could you explain what could Russia possibly gain from such a confrontation? And why do you think that Russian leadership is completely insane?
And the idea that China would participate in a war against Russia is even more insane than them plotting together against the West. China is trying to develop its economy, not to serve as canonfodder for the west, as you envisage them in such a case.
NATO and Russia still have their nuclear arsenals. While they exist, there won't be a direct war between the two.

As I said, I think the the Russians would push to hard once they got overly confident in the face of Western Betrayal, and finally try to grab for something that NATO and other non-Russians aligned neighbors would not give up.

I never said that Russia was just going to bust out one day and try for a desperate grab... our Russo-phile friend.

China might not join the anti-Russia coalition, but they sure as Hell wouldn't want to join the Russians either, and they would have no desire to see a Russian victory, so therefore, I think it is more likely they would feel pressured to get involved on the side of the anti-Russian coalition.

As for the nuclear arsenals... MAD.  NATO won't use theirs, and will be smart enough not to push for the total collapse of Russia, so that the Russians won't feel pressed into using theirs.

I'm not saying this will happen, but everyone else, so far, has assumed that China will be the big baddie in a WWIII (or a Russian-Chinese Alliance, which is even further from reality.), which is ridiculous.  I have no love for the current Chinese government, but I don't think they have the will or capacity to launch a global war.  The scenario I outlined is far more likely.

[Edu]

I think the idea that Any South American country (With the chance of Venezuela being the exception) would ally themselves with Russia against the US is pretty ridiculous.
They would be neutral or join the US

[bgwah]

I don't know about "World War III," but India vs. Pakistan seems like the most likely scenario for a large war between large countries at the moment. And I don't mean to suggest that it's even more than a slim chance at best.

Iran vs. Israel is another notable one. This one would certainly draw in other countries like the United States...