Time for a history Lesson

[Nym90]

You're right (except there was no 3rd debate)...and if Bush comes back to trounce Kerry in the 2nd and 3rd debates, Bush will win the election easily.  But does anyone actually think Bush can do this?

I think Kerry probably assured a reasonably close race right up to election day with his performance last night.

Yeah, the "3rd Debate" was a slip of the mind on my part.

I honestly think that Bush will defeat Kerry in the Town Hall forum.  I don't know about the last one, though.

Well, we'll see. Kerry is much better at thinking on his feet than Bush, it would seem. I think there's a reason that Bush wasn't big on having this debate. I don't think it was just reverse psychology. It's been a while since Bush has had to face undecided voters.

Bush's best chance is to hope that Kerry gives long-winded answers like he used to. He seems to have gotten over that though somewhat.

[The Vorlon]

My sense is that Kerry won himself a second chance in Debate #1.

They say you never get a second chance to make a first impression - well Kerry just proved this wrong.

It is always about expectations - Kerry beat expectations by quite a lot.

Mind you, I expect expectations about Bush re Debate #2 can't get much lower, so I expect Bush will "beat expectations" in Debate #2

This election is structurally and fundementally a close race.  I never though that Bush has more than a 4% or so "real" lead, and I expect that after the foam and post debate froth settle Bush will again be in the +3-+5 range or so.

This thing will, in the end, be a turnout and ground game battle, just as most have expected since, well, 4 years ago...

[Democratic Hawk]

I figured that now is a good time for a brief history lesson.

Walter Mondale slaughtered Ronald Reagan in the first debate of 1984.  Newspapers said that Reagan looked, "baffled", "uninformed", "befuddled" and was generally "inarticulate".

Many people did start to wonder if it really was "just Reagan's time" and "soft support" eroded away a bit.

What happened next?  Reagan came back to trounce Mondale in the 2nd and 3rd debates... you know the rest.

You're right (except there was no 3rd debate)...and if Bush comes back to trounce Kerry in the 2nd and 3rd debates, Bush will win the election easily.  But does anyone actually think Bush can do this?

I think Kerry probably assured a reasonably close race right up to election day with his performance last night.

If Bush couldn't sink Kerry on foreign policy and homeland security, I don't fancy his chances.

These debates provide Kerry was an execellent opportunity to close the gap in some of those internals.

Dave

[Mort from NewYawk]

I was amazed that Bush was not prepped on his facial expression - the GOP knew that the split screen would be up there the whole debate.

How could he have not worked on his emotional responses, and display such lack of control?! I agree that he has been unchallenged by this heavy screening of his campaign crowds.

It's mostly about presentation now - that's what people who make up their minds at this point decide on.

Kerry showed how much he wants it, by doing a nice job developing a forthright style over one week.

Bush better get rid of the lemon-sucking face and put back the  relaxed cocky expression before the next debate.