What would be the 2nd turn if French presidential elections were held now?

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Besancenot

ROFLMAO. Besancenot may be popular, but he wouldn't come anywhere close beating Sarkozy and Royal. The candidates may be personally unpopular, but the parties behind them have strong machines. The NPA doesn't. Not to say he wouldn't poll well, he would. Possibly at Le Pen's 2007 level.

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1st round :

Sarkozy : 26%
Bayrou : 23%
Royal : 22%
Besancenot : 11%
Le Pen : 6%
Laguiller : 3%
Voynet : 3%
Villiers : 2%
Buffet : 2%
Nihous : 1%
Bové : 1%
Schivardi : 0%


2nd round :

Bayrou : 54%
Sarkozy : 46%

You make it with names of 2007, but in my question, it's fully free, you can pick anyone you want through those you think that they could be at a 2nd turn if the election were held now.

I nominate the ghost of Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte

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I have to ask, what is the state of French politics right now? I haven't paid any attention to France since 2007.

PM me.

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Sarkozy still has a 40-something approval, France's largest party both in terms of members and parliamentarians is strongly behind him (emphasis on strongly), he effectively runs the said party personally, and he still has some diehard hacks. That's enough to get into the runoff, though maybe not enough to win.

Besancenot has behind him young revolutionary Trot kooks, a share of unemployed voters, a relatively good popularity, but also a new party that is nowhere near being a major party in terms of GOTV and grassroots organization. That isn't enough to get into the runoff, but maybe it is enough to break the 10% threshold.