Newsweek Poll : "Bush lead Gone" says Drudge

[The Vorlon]

Here is a link to "the guts" of the poll

http://www.prnewswire.com/

Party ID looks like it "about"

Dems 39
GOP 34
Ind 28

The raw sample was a lot closer party ID wise, but this ditribution quoted above is based on the breakout among Dems, GOPers, and Indys.

Again, this is an ESTIMATE, and may be out a percent or so, but as usual, will be darn close

[King]

Couldn't find it either.

[emergingDmajority1]

waiting for the results

everybody knows Kerry won, perhaps he landed a bigger blow than anybody really imagined

I say it's Bush +2, basically a dead heat

[Giant Saguaro]

Yeah, it's there on Drudge. 49-46, Kerry.

[emergingDmajority1]

49-46, still too close for comfort. Everybody knows Kerry can close elections out.

Kerry can deliver the knockout blow Friday.....or Bush delivers a respectable performance and it'll be 50-50 all the way to Nov. 2, but I think it's too late for any sort of Bush landslide.

The Edwards debate is also key, he's got to keep Kerry's momentum going.

[King]

"In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows."

[Inmate Trump]

I think this race is pretty much over.  Kerry wins.  Bush ruined any chance he had at winning during the debate.

All Bush has left is an October surprise...mayhap the capture of Osama.  That's all, I think, that will help him now, which is sad b/c he should've won that debate--it was his turf--but he lost, and now he's going to pay for it by losing the election.

[Pollwatch99]

I think this race is pretty much over.  Kerry wins.  Bush ruined any chance he had at winning during the debate.

All Bush has left is an October surprise...mayhap the capture of Osama.  That's all, I think, that will help him now, which is sad b/c he should've won that debate--it was his turf--but he lost, and now he's going to pay for it by losing the election.

I agree that Bush squandered a golden oppotunity and if he loses he can only blame himself.  If Kerry wins, he can credit himself.

However, it's not over yet.

[agcatter]

race is pretty much over?

Good lord man, based on what?

[Giant Saguaro]

If I were a Kerry voter I wouldn't get swept away over a Newsweek poll of RV's.

[ATFFL]

race is pretty much over?

Good lord man, based on what?

Based on Clay's recent posts I think he is giving a humorous overreaction.

[Pollwatch99]

If I were a Kerry voter I wouldn't get swept away over a Newsweek poll of RV's.

Thanks to the link from realclearpolitics.com, I found the release of their last poll.  It was 391 rep, 300 democrats, and 270 independants.  Interesting demographics.  Anybody seen the details on this one?

[ATFFL]

Wait a second, this is on Drudge.   Shouldn't the democrats be decrying it as a lie and mudslinging?

[Sam Spade]

I personally am just curious about the internals of the poll before I give thought to making any comments.

[agcatter]

Let's see.  The poll was taken the 30th thru the 2nd.  That's today.  Right?  Couldn't wait to get it out could they?  What, they finished their last phone call 10 minutes ago?  Ha.

[agcatter]

We'll see.  Didn't seem to affect Rasmussen's sample last night.  Guess we shall see.

[Sam Spade]

Took me a while, but I found the internals here:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=

[AuH2O]

Dems didn't like Newsweek when they came out with a poll too Bush-friendly. Now, all of the sudden, it's the most important and best poll in the history of polling.

I would put somewhere between zero and zero stock in this poll. Kerry has certainly helped himself, but not that much.

[Pollwatch99]

Took me a while, but I found the internals here:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=

Yes just found also.  35% republican, 37% dem, 28% indep

[agcatter]

So, again it depends on the party id polled.  Seems to be the key in any poll.

[The Duke]

Its Newsweek, not Gallup or Battleground.  Besides, this is being released less than 48 hours after the debate ended.  Does anyone think that:

1. They did a decent poll with a decent sample in such short a time span?

2. If they started sampling before the debate (and to get a good sample, they would have), can anyone actually believe that this poll is accurate?

[agcatter]

My guess is that they put all of their work into getting the poll done.  How accurate there's no telling.  Just seems awful quick.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

race is pretty much over?

Good lord man, based on what?

I was about to say the same thing, but I think people fail to understand the true positive for Kerry out of the debate.  It's not that he turned around a bunch of Bush voters.  He made a huge portion of fickle undecideds who really don't like Bush too much give him a second look.  These voters weren't ecstatic with Bush, but Kerry looked like a complete ass there for a while.  Thursday night, Kerry looked like the President of the United States.

Friday could be huge for Kerry.  It's going to focus a lot on domestic issues, and for a intensive purposes, Kerry should destroy Bush on these matters.  

[The Vorlon]

Took me a while, but I found the internals here:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=

Yes just found also.  35% republican, 37% dem, 28% indep

Those are the RAW numbers, Newsweek weights their polls out quite a bit - in the WEIGHTED version it is "about"

Dems 39
GOP 34
Inds 27

AS newsweek says directly below that RAW data...

 NOTE: Data ares weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race and region.
Ssample sizes listed above are unweighted and should NOT be used to compute
percentages.

Also...

Fixing link

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=

[Sam Spade]

Let's play and twist Dem argument for a second:

9/30-10/2 poll
Republicans           89              6             2            3    

Democrats             12             86             0            2    

Independents          37             42             4           17


9/9-9/10 poll
Republicans           93              4             1            2      

Democrats              7             87             *            6      

Independents          39             45             7            9  

What does this mean?