Congressional Quarterly Releases Gubernatorial Forecasts for 2009-2010

[Joe Biden 2020]

She has populist appeal like Betty Castor and Jean Carnahan and Claire McCaskill and Robyn Carnahan. Just like they felt buyers remorse concerning Jim Talent over Carnahan with Clair, I think the same will very well hold true concerning Betty Castor with Mel Martinez concerning Sink. She will defeat any Republican challenger that's not name Bush or Crist.

Sink is overrated.  And how would buyer's remorse from a Senate seat in 2004 translate to victory in a gubernatorial race in 2010?  It doesn't make sense.

You tend to forget that Mel Martinez was Bush's HUD secretary.  Bush won Florida in 2004 by 5 pts and he carried Mel Martinez to a small victory. Bush and the GOP is veryunpopular and caused Obama to wiin  FL.  I think that the Dems should do very well in FL just like Bush did in 2004.

And the only two names that were able to win was either Bush or Crist or someone who was backed by Bush. Who are the republicans going to run Bill McCullum who was very unpopular in the impeachment of Bill Clinton and ran statewide in 2000 and lost. He is a joke.

I wish Bob Graham would come out of retirement and run for governor.

[Nym90]

Quinn told an editorial board he will run for reelection, and AG Madigan continues to talk like a candidate for Gov as well. Quinn's positives are still good despite his unpopular tax proposal to fix the budget. That shapes up for a dandy primary on the Dem side.

At this point there is still a lot of jockeying for position on the GOP side. Some depends on Kirk's decision about running for Gov or Senate. Others are looking at the whole list of statewide races to see what looks best.

Others=State Representative Mike Fortner?

[TeePee4Prez]

PA is Dem favored if Wagner runs and is nominated. It will be Lean Republican (maybe Republican favored) if Knox is nominated (on the Dem side).

I wouldn't exactly coronate Corbett yet.  I have a theory that people tend to vote more conservative for DA for some reason.  Look at how Lynne Abraham managed to win Philly all these years despite primary challenges and Seth Williams didn't exactly do as well as I thought he would.

[Keystone Phil]

PA is Dem favored if Wagner runs and is nominated. It will be Lean Republican (maybe Republican favored) if Knox is nominated (on the Dem side).

I wouldn't exactly coronate Corbett yet.  I have a theory that people tend to vote more conservative for DA for some reason.  Look at how Lynne Abraham managed to win Philly all these years despite primary challenges and Seth Williams didn't exactly do as well as I thought he would.

Uh...what?

We're not talking about a DA primary; we're talking about a Gubernatorial primary with Corbett (who is known and respected by the state GOP) and Meehan (who is respected but far less well known). Secondly, you're talking about a Democratic DA primary in Philly with an incumbent vs. a newcomer. Thirdly, Williams did very well considering the machine strongly backed Lynne (he received 44% in 2005). If she wasn't the incumbent with the machine backing, he would have destroyed her.

I have no idea what any of that has to do with anything that I posted especially considering Corbett is a statewide prosecutor so Meehan doesn't have some "law and order" credentials that Corbett doesn't have.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA is Dem favored if Wagner runs and is nominated. It will be Lean Republican (maybe Republican favored) if Knox is nominated (on the Dem side).

I wouldn't exactly coronate Corbett yet.  I have a theory that people tend to vote more conservative for DA for some reason.  Look at how Lynne Abraham managed to win Philly all these years despite primary challenges and Seth Williams didn't exactly do as well as I thought he would.

Uh...what?

We're not talking about a DA primary; we're talking about a Gubernatorial primary with Corbett (who is known and respected by the state GOP) and Meehan (who is respected but far less well known). Secondly, you're talking about a Democratic DA primary in Philly with an incumbent vs. a newcomer. Thirdly, Williams did very well considering the machine strongly backed Lynne (he received 44% in 2005). If she wasn't the incumbent with the machine backing, he would have destroyed her.

I have no idea what any of that has to do with anything that I posted especially considering Corbett is a statewide prosecutor so Meehan doesn't have some "law and order" credentials that Corbett doesn't have.

I'm saying in DA races people tend to vote more conservative than their politics. That said I'm not sure how that would play out in a Gubernatorial race.  I was using Lynne Abraham as an example.  She got elected DA on a fairly consistent basis up until now while if she ran for mayor, she would get crushed in a primary.  And I think other candidates than Wagner can win such as Don Cunningham or Dan Onorato.  Tom Knox, well.. I wouldn't write him off just yet.  He looked a little off in the 2007 mayoral primary at times, but he does have the funding to get consultants and whatnot to make him look better. 

[Keystone Phil]

PA is Dem favored if Wagner runs and is nominated. It will be Lean Republican (maybe Republican favored) if Knox is nominated (on the Dem side).

I wouldn't exactly coronate Corbett yet.  I have a theory that people tend to vote more conservative for DA for some reason.  Look at how Lynne Abraham managed to win Philly all these years despite primary challenges and Seth Williams didn't exactly do as well as I thought he would.

Uh...what?

We're not talking about a DA primary; we're talking about a Gubernatorial primary with Corbett (who is known and respected by the state GOP) and Meehan (who is respected but far less well known). Secondly, you're talking about a Democratic DA primary in Philly with an incumbent vs. a newcomer. Thirdly, Williams did very well considering the machine strongly backed Lynne (he received 44% in 2005). If she wasn't the incumbent with the machine backing, he would have destroyed her.

I have no idea what any of that has to do with anything that I posted especially considering Corbett is a statewide prosecutor so Meehan doesn't have some "law and order" credentials that Corbett doesn't have.

I'm saying in DA races people tend to vote more conservative than their politics. That said I'm not sure how that would play out in a Gubernatorial race.  I was using Lynne Abraham as an example.  She got elected DA on a fairly consistent basis up until now while if she ran for mayor, she would get crushed in a primary.  And I think other candidates than Wagner can win such as Don Cunningham or Dan Onorato.  Tom Knox, well.. I wouldn't write him off just yet.  He looked a little off in the 2007 mayoral primary at times, but he does have the funding to get consultants and whatnot to make him look better. 

Dude, Knox is a joke. Consultants can't make him look better outside of the SE. He's too liberal. He's too old. He's too aloof.

Cunningham does scare me but I don't think he's getting out of the primary. Onorato could win, too, but he's nothing compared to Wagner and I see those two splitting the western vote, allowing Knox to win the nomination.