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  BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
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Author Topic: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice  (Read 19969 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #25 on: May 01, 2009, 12:56:27 pm »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_S._Karlan

She's incredibly bright and talented, but may be too liberal
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benconstine
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« Reply #26 on: May 01, 2009, 12:58:30 pm »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_S._Karlan

She's incredibly bright and talented, but may be too liberal

I wouldn't expect that to be an issue.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #27 on: May 01, 2009, 01:07:19 pm »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_S._Karlan

She's incredibly bright and talented, but may be too liberal

The court could use a real liberal. There are 4 hardcore right-wingers on there now that will be there for a long time.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #28 on: May 01, 2009, 04:03:15 pm »

I think it's weird that everyone's talking about only judges, when historically presidents have nominated Senators and Governors plenty. Earl Warren, our greatest Chief Justice, had no judicial experience, remember. I would argue that it's a good idea to give the court some balance with respect to historical background, so that the justices aren't completely removed from the actual effects of their decisions.

Warren was hardly our greatest Chief Justice.  He was an overly activist justice who presided over an overly activist court.  Wasn't our worst Chief either.  I'd rate Warran as in the broad middle.
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benconstine
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« Reply #29 on: May 01, 2009, 04:05:01 pm »

Our two greatest Chiefs, Warren and Marshall, were career politicians.  Then again, Vincent, our worst, was as well.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #30 on: May 01, 2009, 06:29:20 pm »

Oh, my...Jeffrey Toobin just suggested a name I didn't even think of - Midge Rendell (Ed's wife)

That would be interesting. I know Specter would definitely vote for her.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2009, 09:09:40 pm »
« Edited: May 01, 2009, 09:11:48 pm by Mr. Morden »

Early Intrade numbers (volume very low):

Sonia Sotomayor 35.0
Jennifer Granholm 20.0
Elena Kagan 20.0
Cass Sunstein 15.0

Other speculation I read suggested that Sotomayor, Kagan, and Diane Wood are the most frequently mentioned possibilities.  Almost everyone thinks that Obama will pick a woman.

Also, this:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0509/Conservatives_target_Sotomayor_Kagan_Wood.html?showall

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benconstine
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« Reply #32 on: May 02, 2009, 09:41:15 pm »

Why is Granholm being mentioned so often?  Does she have any legal experience?
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Lunar
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« Reply #33 on: May 02, 2009, 10:52:48 pm »

Kathleen Sullivan would be interesting since she a lezzie
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Rowan
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« Reply #34 on: May 02, 2009, 10:57:38 pm »

Granholm was on Cavuto the other day, she didn't sound interested at all.
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Purple State
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« Reply #35 on: May 02, 2009, 11:30:31 pm »

Early Intrade numbers (volume very low):

Sonia Sotomayor 35.0


First to call this one. Not bad I think.
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benconstine
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« Reply #36 on: May 02, 2009, 11:32:28 pm »

Early Intrade numbers (volume very low):

Sonia Sotomayor 35.0

She seems to be the most logical choice.
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Lunar
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« Reply #37 on: May 02, 2009, 11:37:26 pm »
« Edited: May 02, 2009, 11:39:12 pm by Lunar »

... supposing all one cares about is being Hispanic and female


Obama may decide he wants a brilliant legal thinker who can hold ideological sway over [future?] conservative and moderate members of the court.  That's the temptation of selecting someone like Diana Wood or Pam Karlan.  Also, Sotomayor has health problems.


It will be a women though.  Everyone thinks that the Supreme Court should have at least two women on it, and it's possibly no one but Ginsburg will retire in the next few years... replacing one woman with another.  Also, women justices are less likely to reverse their stance on Roe.
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The Duke
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« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2009, 12:04:13 am »

From my prediction for the Obama Presidency thread.

Sonia Sotomayor... will be nominated to the Supreme Court to replace... David Souter

Win?
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Lunar
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« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2009, 12:08:48 am »

Not bad sir.  You predicted that Koh was going to be a contender too... although his latest partisan troubles certainly mean that won't happen.  Artur Davis isn't too different than Holder in demographic profile and Artur obviously has other ambitions (probably would have been a better pick too), although Larry Summers was never going to be Secretary of Treasury due to his statements on women...  although I have a feeling he's more influential in the department than Geithner.

No one expected Souter to be the first to retire except Souter's friends, cool.


Although you predicted Lieberman would caucus with the GOP Smiley
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Lunar
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« Reply #40 on: May 03, 2009, 12:13:12 am »

Like I said though, while Sonia Sotomayor checks all the boxes, Obama is a Constitutional student himself and may prefer to hire a persuasive advocate of judicial philosophy he believes in, rather than simply voting as he'd prefer.  Sotomayor may be the next one nominated, but if Obama can profoundly impact the aggregate judicial philosophy of the court, isn't that more important than temporarily placating Hispanic groups three years before he runs for reelection?


Obama is searching for the next this guy, if possible.  Ironic because Souter replaced him:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Brennan,_Jr.
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Purple State
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« Reply #41 on: May 03, 2009, 12:17:59 am »

Like I said though, while Sonia Sotomayor checks all the boxes, Obama is a Constitutional student himself and may prefer to hire a persuasive advocate of judicial philosophy he believes in, rather than simply voting as he'd prefer.  Sotomayor may be the next one nominated, but if Obama can profoundly impact the aggregate judicial philosophy of the court, isn't that more important than temporarily placating Hispanic groups three years before he runs for reelection?


Obama is searching for the next this guy, if possible.  Ironic because Souter replaced him:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Brennan,_Jr.


That will come later. I think Obama will pick what needs to be done for Souter and then what should be done for Ginsburg. I doubt he will only have those two to replace anyway, so he will have plenty of opportunities to shape the future of the court. For now he needs to play politics.
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Lunar
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« Reply #42 on: May 03, 2009, 12:24:17 am »

Why is it better to appease racial minority groups now, rather than closer to the election when he needs their vote?  Their legislative influence isn't needed to pass the Obama agenda, why not closer when the voters will actually matter?  Besides, even the interest groups are probably going to be offended by something he does between now and the election and forget about the appointment anyway.
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The Duke
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« Reply #43 on: May 03, 2009, 12:32:57 am »

You predicted that Koh was going to be a contender too... although his latest partisan troubles certainly mean that won't happen.

Koh won't go to the Supreme Court, but he did end up with a high profile legal position. 

No one expected Souter to be the first to retire except Souter's friends, cool.

My friend Jim Rogan (The former Congressman who ran the impeachment trial of Bill Clinton) actually did predict to me that Souter would be the first to go.  I'm pretty impressed with that in retrospect.

And David Souter doesn't have friends, silly.

Although you predicted Lieberman would caucus with the GOP Smiley

You win some you lose some, I guess.
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Purple State
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« Reply #44 on: May 03, 2009, 12:34:02 am »

Why is it better to appease racial minority groups now, rather than closer to the election when he needs their vote?  Their legislative influence isn't needed to pass the Obama agenda, why not closer when the voters will actually matter?  Besides, even the interest groups are probably going to be offended by something he does between now and the election and forget about the appointment anyway.

Yes he will screw up with these groups at some point along the way, but when it comes to election time he can say "Well look what I gave you on the SC as one of my earliest agendas." That way it isn't an after-the-fact apology for screwing up, but a preemptive show of solidarity.

Sure, it is usually better to follow the "What have you done for me lately?" doctrine, but in this situation this is the gift that can keep on giving and shows a proactive agenda. It also is usually harder for a president to get their first SC nominee through, while the ones that follow usually face less (although still considerable) resistance. I would imagine we see Ginsburg (and hopefully one of the conservative justices) retire in 2011 when Obama is (likely) to have a more solid Senate and that is when he will see some of the more mover-and-shaker type of justices on Obama's wish list.
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Lunar
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« Reply #45 on: May 03, 2009, 12:43:17 am »

it is usually better to follow the "What have you done for me lately?" doctrine,

Agreed, especially with minority groups, and this shouldn't be underestimated.  It's not like the Hispanic caucus in Congress is an unreliable vote, and voters, as a whole, don't have much of a memory.  They'll feel more positive towards Obama on election day by appointing a Hispanic later in his term than right now.  Hispanic groups are intentionally keeping a low public profile this time around, although they are pushing hard privately.


but in this situation this is the gift that can keep on giving and shows a proactive agenda.

Only if Obama consistently elevates Hispanics to top posts throughout his term does this show a proactive agenda.  If it's just going to be one, it's best it's done later.  No one is voting for him until 2012, showing something like that is 90% irrelevant now.

It also is usually harder for a president to get their first SC nominee through, while the ones that follow usually face less (although still considerable) resistance.

All the more reason to get one of the white, liberal, female, haha possibly gay [if Sullivan], justices through now who can be a persuasive voice on the court. A Hispanic isn't an especially controversial person to nominate, even if especially because it'd be an uncontroversial "first."  Just getting someone that checks all of the boxes but doesn't offer any additional ideological threat to conservatives would be easier to get in later.  That's what Sonia does.
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Purple State
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« Reply #46 on: May 03, 2009, 01:17:32 am »

The first two of those are debatable, and are something to be worked out behind the scenes with the CHC. It is tough to say whether a later pick will seem like anything more than shameless pandering, while an early pick may not be remembered. But bear in mind Obama may not get another one of these before the 2012 elections. It may be likely, but Ginsburg has shown herself to be resilient and committed to remaining on the bench for as long and as often as possible.

On the final point, I would be interested to see the decisions passed down by these justices before I start throwing around the "L" word. It is possible that Sotomayor has a pretty liberal record. I am not knowledgeable enough (yet, but I will start looking through decisions when finals are over) on their records. However, for Obama to spend such a tremendous amount of political capital on this is silly. It has the potential to blow up in his face on too many fronts, from losing the nominee to losing major planks in his agenda. He is better off placating everyone, having an easy nominating round early, get in a pretty good justice, and move on with his platform. Once that is in place he can go full steam ahead with the more ideologically compatible justices, but sacrificing everything for a slightly more liberal justice is not in the best interest of his administration or the country at the moment.
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Lunar
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« Reply #47 on: May 03, 2009, 01:43:51 am »
« Edited: May 03, 2009, 01:47:41 am by Lunar »

The first two of those are debatable,

CONSIDER YOURSELF DEBATED

[no charge]

But bear in mind Obama may not get another one of these before the 2012 elections.

Unlikely though.  Possible.  And he's relatively likely to be reelected too, judging from historical standards.



Again, I stress that overall influence on the court is more important than simply deciding on the liberal side of issues.  If you select someone like Brennan, your influence is infinite.  I severely contest you contention that Obama is better off "placating everyone," only the women's interest groups hold considerable sway with Obama's legislative goals in his first term.  Getting in a 15% more liberal justice is not his priority, I agree, but Obama is someone with particular interest in Constitutional law and he may not settle that easily.
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« Reply #48 on: May 03, 2009, 05:27:35 am »
« Edited: May 03, 2009, 05:08:18 pm by Ogre Mage »

Why is Granholm being mentioned so often?  Does she have any legal experience?

Obama has said that he would like to appoint a Supreme Court Justice with real world political experience.  Given that the conventional wisdom points to a woman nominee, Granholm, who served as Michigan Attorney General, a U.S. Attorney and earned her law degree from Harvard, fits the bill.  She has no experience as a judge, but I think the idea would be to diversify the court by adding someone who didn't come from the judicial monastery.  All of the current Justices were serving on the Federal Court of Appeals when selected.

She and Pam Karlan might be good out-of-the box choices but I think Obama is more likely to play it safe with the first pick and go with either Sotomayor or Wood, or perhaps Kagan if the other two fall through in the vetting process.
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benconstine
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« Reply #49 on: May 03, 2009, 10:15:28 am »

I wasn't aware that Granholm had been AG of Michigan and went to Harvard Law.  With that in mind, she seems like a very strong pick.
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