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  BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
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Author Topic: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice  (Read 20144 times)
tweed
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« Reply #50 on: May 03, 2009, 10:40:29 am »

would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #51 on: May 03, 2009, 10:42:18 am »

would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?

No.
From the top of my head, Felix Frankfurter was born in Austria.
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« Reply #52 on: May 03, 2009, 10:48:30 am »

would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?

No.
From the top of my head, Felix Frankfurter was born in Austria.

James Wilson was born in Scotland.
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Purple State
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« Reply #53 on: May 03, 2009, 11:01:10 am »

Again, I stress that overall influence on the court is more important than simply deciding on the liberal side of issues.  If you select someone like Brennan, your influence is infinite.  I severely contest you contention that Obama is better off "placating everyone," only the women's interest groups hold considerable sway with Obama's legislative goals in his first term.  Getting in a 15% more liberal justice is not his priority, I agree, but Obama is someone with particular interest in Constitutional law and he may not settle that easily.

I would agree. I am all for an influential liberal voice on the court, and I'm sure Obama will hate backing down on his gut choices, but there is no conceivable reason why he would give up the political capital necessary to do that so early into his first term. The honeymoon is going to end soon enough and the Republicans already don't seem all that inclined to drink the Kool-Aid. This is going to be a protracted fight and I would rather avoid a shutdown of Congress over this.

Just this could turn popular opinion against Obama. The country really doesn't hold much interest in SC nominees and would rather a quick, easy process. If we have to start hearing about how a justice was okay with partial-birth abortions or some stupid crap like that Obama will lose a lot of face and a lot of time. Best he play it safe for this first one and shape the court later down the road.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #54 on: May 03, 2009, 11:34:04 am »

would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?

No.
From the top of my head, Felix Frankfurter was born in Austria.

Yeah, but the birth certificate enthusiasts and their ilk won't like. They won't like it at all.
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Lunar
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« Reply #55 on: May 03, 2009, 11:45:01 am »

Again, I stress that overall influence on the court is more important than simply deciding on the liberal side of issues.  If you select someone like Brennan, your influence is infinite.  I severely contest you contention that Obama is better off "placating everyone," only the women's interest groups hold considerable sway with Obama's legislative goals in his first term.  Getting in a 15% more liberal justice is not his priority, I agree, but Obama is someone with particular interest in Constitutional law and he may not settle that easily.

I would agree. I am all for an influential liberal voice on the court, and I'm sure Obama will hate backing down on his gut choices, but there is no conceivable reason why he would give up the political capital necessary to do that so early into his first term.


It's a partisan issue, not really a moderate hero one.  As long as Franken gets seated and normal Congressional committee policies are followed, very little political capital will need to be spent.  Everyone who's following this and knows Congressional politics knows Obama can choose anyone he wants and that this is something Obama almost certainly feels worth spending political capital on while Congress privately hashes out a health care plan.  Obama has a personal fascination with the Supreme Court, it's not a side show to him!!!

Marc Ambinder, for example, said [paraphrased] "SPOILER ALERT: Whoever Obama picks is guaranteed to be nominated" and Ben Smith said [paraphrased] "I don't see how anyone Obama picks to the right of Noam Chomsky doesn't get nominated"


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Lunar
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« Reply #56 on: May 03, 2009, 11:55:24 am »

You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant
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Brittain33
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« Reply #57 on: May 03, 2009, 12:06:55 pm »

You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant


If Stevens follows in retirement and is replaced by Elana Kagan or another Jew or Catholic, there will be no Protestants on the Court.
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Lunar
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« Reply #58 on: May 03, 2009, 12:12:04 pm »

You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant


If Stevens follows in retirement and is replaced by Elana Kagan or another Jew or Catholic, there will be no Protestants on the Court.

The current Catholics though Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito, and Kennedy, ironically vote pretty much how I imagine evangelicals would, on a balance, prefer
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Lunar
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« Reply #59 on: May 03, 2009, 12:17:08 pm »

You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant


If Stevens follows in retirement and is replaced by Elana Kagan or another Jew or Catholic, there will be no Protestants on the Court.

The current Catholics though Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito, and Kennedy, ironically vote pretty much how I imagine evangelicals would, on a balance, prefer

This is ironic because there's 18 Democratic senators ad 8 Republican ones, yet Republicans rely 100% on Catholic Supreme Court officials to hold sway in decisions.  Sotomayor, would naturally reduce that 100% number somewhat as I doubt she'll be on too many sides with Thomas when the chips are down, but it's interesting.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #60 on: May 03, 2009, 12:31:47 pm »

Why is Granholm being mentioned so often?  Does she have any legal experience?

She was Michigan Attorney General, and was an assistant U.S. Attorney, but that's really about it when it comes to her legal experience.

I don't see her getting nominated, and even if she did, I think she'd have trouble making it through the confirmation since she's pretty lacking in experience.
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« Reply #61 on: May 03, 2009, 05:29:10 pm »

It's a partisan issue, not really a moderate hero one.  As long as Franken gets seated and normal Congressional committee policies are followed, very little political capital will need to be spent.  Everyone who's following this and knows Congressional politics knows Obama can choose anyone he wants and that this is something Obama almost certainly feels worth spending political capital on while Congress privately hashes out a health care plan.  Obama has a personal fascination with the Supreme Court, it's not a side show to him!!!

I have a hard time seeing Democrats moving lock-step on this one, but it would be nice. I understand that Obama does not view this as a side show, but he has people like Rahm who are purely political and aware of political consequences. I would love to see how those internal negotiations are shaping the decision. I do think Rahm and the political guys will mostly win out on this one. Sotomayor seems to fit the blend of judicial enough for Obama and political enough for the pollsters. Don't get me wrong, I am a huge constitution enthusiast and would love to see a real mover and shaker on the court, but I don't think this is the time.

That said, things will rely heavily on the climate of the next few months and how quickly Obama plans on announcing his pick. There is no rush (needs to be done by October), so Obama could float some names, get the winds of rage done with, and then make his pick once they pass. He may also have the major parts of his agenda passed by October. If he spends all of his political capital by October he can pick whomever he wants for the Court. Plus all the digging by the vetters will turn up some information that would be hard enough for any of us to find.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #62 on: May 03, 2009, 05:31:39 pm »

Obama could always appoint himself, lol
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« Reply #63 on: May 03, 2009, 05:32:08 pm »

The odds of Obama appointing another Brennan, in terms of ideology or influence, are slim to none.  Ideologically, I don't think there is really anyone around today who shares Brennan's views.  Perhaps one of his former clerks, but the only name that comes to mind is Merrick Garland, and at 57 he might be too old.

In terms of influence, as well, we won't have another Brennan.  For 3 decades Brennan was the single most important Justice on the Court; nobody Obama appoints will be able to sway votes the way Brennan could.  Anthony Kennedy is still the most important Justice, no matter who Obama appoints.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #64 on: May 03, 2009, 05:33:59 pm »

Obama could always appoint himself, lol

Could he do that if he wanted, and then just resign as President?
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Lunar
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« Reply #65 on: May 03, 2009, 05:58:10 pm »

The odds of Obama appointing another Brennan, in terms of ideology or influence, are slim to none.  Ideologically, I don't think there is really anyone around today who shares Brennan's views.  Perhaps one of his former clerks, but the only name that comes to mind is Merrick Garland, and at 57 he might be too old.

In terms of influence, as well, we won't have another Brennan.  For 3 decades Brennan was the single most important Justice on the Court; nobody Obama appoints will be able to sway votes the way Brennan could.  Anthony Kennedy is still the most important Justice, no matter who Obama appoints.

No matter how persuasive Obama's justice is at convincing Kennedy, rly?
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« Reply #66 on: May 03, 2009, 06:02:51 pm »

No matter how persuasive Obama's justice is at convincing Kennedy, rly?

I had not considered that, good point.  I still think, though, that nobody Obama appoints can have the type of influence Brennan did.  See Harry Blackmun for an example of what I mean.
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Lunar
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« Reply #67 on: May 03, 2009, 06:11:05 pm »

I'll not, but why shouldn't Obama try to select someone intellectually and legally persuasive?  The reason Brennan was influential was because he could convince people such as Kennedy [and more conservative justices].  Obama won't probably get up to that level, but I don't see any reason not to shoot for the moon and select the most brilliant, persuasive, [female], justice possible.  Going for the token Hispanic is best done closer to election day, no?
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Purple State
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« Reply #68 on: May 03, 2009, 06:16:52 pm »

I'll not, but why shouldn't Obama try to select someone intellectually and legally persuasive?  The reason Brennan was influential was because he could convince people such as Kennedy [and more conservative justices].  Obama won't probably get up to that level, but I don't see any reason not to shoot for the moon and select the most brilliant, persuasive, [female], justice possible.  Going for the token Hispanic is best done closer to election day, no?


Closer to election still looks like pandering. He can point to this around election time and say, "Look at all the wonderful things my Hispanic pick has done." Obviously all of this depends on how conditions are in October. If Obama has incredible Senate dominance and has passed much of his agenda by then, he could potentially have his way. However, if he is mired in conflict and a number of battles with the Senate, he is better off rallying groups around him and gaining more political capital than he spends with his pick.
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« Reply #69 on: May 03, 2009, 06:17:32 pm »

I agree with everything you wrote.  I'm merely saying that, no matter how hard he tries, Obama won't be able to find another Brennan.  He should pick the person most likely to sway Kennedy; I think he should ignore what interest groups are saying.  He'll get another appointment before 2012, he can appoint a Hispanic then.  I personally am not enamored by Sotomayor, and think he should look elsewhere.
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paul718
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« Reply #70 on: May 03, 2009, 09:03:06 pm »

I can't believe Granholm is being considered.  It would be like a Republican nominating Rudy Giuliani. 
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #71 on: May 03, 2009, 10:49:47 pm »

I think that if Obama is going to make "symbolic" pick, it's probably best to do it with the first pick.  That way it is likely to ultimately have the biggest impact in the public consciousness, which is what you want with a symbolic pick.  It's why Reagan selected Sandra Day O'Connor first instead of second or third.

Obama will get a second pick because John Paul Stevens is virtually certain to retire sometime during his first term.  Perhaps for the second pick he can focus more on getting an intellectual heavyweight.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #72 on: May 03, 2009, 11:09:33 pm »

Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)

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paul718
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« Reply #73 on: May 03, 2009, 11:37:50 pm »

Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)



I'd put my money on Wood (pause) because of the University of Chicago connection.
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Lunar
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« Reply #74 on: May 03, 2009, 11:43:59 pm »

Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)



I'd put my money on Wood (pause) because of the University of Chicago connection.

And Wood, I hear, has a sharp legal mind
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