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  BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
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Author Topic: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice  (Read 20205 times)
Purple State
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« Reply #125 on: May 17, 2009, 03:17:46 pm »

That's similar to FirstRead's list and I don't buy that those are all names on his final shortlist

I agree. I imagine the list is longer than five names (every source always centers on five) and it likely has one or two surprises no one is thinking of.

I certainly doubt Napolitano is on the shortlist at all.
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Sensei
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« Reply #126 on: May 17, 2009, 03:37:32 pm »

That's similar to FirstRead's list and I don't buy that those are all names on his final shortlist

I agree. I imagine the list is longer than five names (every source always centers on five) and it likely has one or two surprises no one is thinking of.

I certainly doubt Napolitano is on the shortlist at all.
And Granholm? What the hell is that about?
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Lunar
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« Reply #127 on: May 17, 2009, 03:42:54 pm »

Obama himself is a Constitutional scholar, I can't believe that he'd choose someone with no experience in Constitutional philosophy that would make his pick look less credible.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #128 on: May 17, 2009, 03:53:01 pm »

I'm starting to wonder if Napolitano's name is a red herring, tossed around by White House sources in order to confuse reporters. She has a close relationship with Obama, so obviously she must be in the game.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #129 on: May 17, 2009, 03:58:25 pm »
« Edited: May 17, 2009, 04:01:30 pm by Ogre Mage »

When names get floated in the media for the Supreme Court, IMO they tend to fall into one of three categories.

The first are those who are truly under serious consideration.  Kagan, Sotomayor and Wood are almost certainly in this category.

The second are those who are being looked at primarily as a courtesy to satisfy some important person(s).  While it's possible for such a person to move from being a courtesy to serious consideration, more often than not I think that a "courtesy candidate" tends to remain just that.  IMO, Carlos Moreno falls into this category.  He was recommended by Senate Judiciary Committee Member Dianne Feinstein.  And it gives the White House the opportunity to say that they looked seriously at more Hispanics than just Sotomayor. 

The third are those whose names are floated just as a smokescreen.  As px75 suggested, I believe Janet Napolitano falls into this category. 
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Lunar
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« Reply #130 on: May 18, 2009, 11:29:38 am »

the pick will occur "next week"
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Kameo
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« Reply #131 on: May 18, 2009, 09:53:55 pm »

Sonia Sotomayor for all the obvious reasons.
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cinyc
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« Reply #132 on: May 19, 2009, 02:14:36 am »

the pick will occur "next week"

That's what the media said last week.

There's really no reason to rush the pick - SCOTUS doesn't need a new Justice until October, and Senate Judiciary has too much on its plate to take up any nomination immediately, anyway.  Obama should make sure the candidate is fully vetted instead of rushing to nominate someone who we later find out, say, hasn't paid his taxes or has a nanny problem.
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« Reply #133 on: May 19, 2009, 03:49:50 am »

Obama himself is a Constitutional scholar
He should appoint himself. That would be fun to watch unfold.
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Lunar
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« Reply #134 on: May 19, 2009, 04:19:15 am »

I'm surprised that "Obama should pick Hillary" discussion has been dying down when it's been there since he won the nomination.  That's normally the type of stuff the media jumps for -- no one in the public has heard of anyone else.

What's Dick Morris's prediction?  Condi?
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True Federalist
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« Reply #135 on: May 19, 2009, 12:59:40 pm »

I'm surprised that "Obama should pick Hillary" discussion has been dying down when it's been there since he won the nomination.  That's normally the type of stuff the media jumps for -- no one in the public has heard of anyone else.

If he hadn't put Hillary in as Secretary of State, I could see it, but it would be beyond silly for him to nominate her to the Supreme Court just now.  If the vacancy had waited a couple more years, maybe then, but even then it would use up political capital better used elsewhere.  2015-2016 when Obama will be a lame duck (assuming he is reëlected.)
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #136 on: May 19, 2009, 02:43:12 pm »

The National Law Journal has a story by Marcia Coyle in which she queries law professors about their preferred choice for the Supreme Court.  Interestingly, Pam Karlan emerges as the top favorite.  In theory, I think Karlan would be a terrific Justice.  However, her confirmation process would be incendiary.

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202430756479

The article also notes very strong support for Diane Wood.  It is a big boon for Wood that she has such strong support from legal academics.  Having the recommendation of that Mandarin class definitely says something about her judicial ability.  Plus, she's a known quantity to Obama and many of his associates from their days together at the University of Chicago Law School.

In contrast, it seems much of Sotomayor's support is more at the street level.  Besides the obvious support of Hispanic organizations, she's been lauded by some community groups.  Someone has even started a "Sonia Sotomayor for U.S. Supreme Court Justice" facebook page with over 2300 members. 

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=74491867940

Not as highbrow as Wood's supporters, but her diverse experience might be compelling to a former community organizer.
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Lunar
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« Reply #137 on: May 20, 2009, 02:09:27 pm »

ANOTHER HISPANIC FEMALE CONSIDERED

http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0509/scotus_contender_40cf85da-70c7-4ce1-91fd-1b94de5a29b3.html

A Colorado-based district judge, Christine Arguello, has been approached about a possible appointment ...

to the Supreme Court, The Pueblo Chieftain reports. 

The Chieftain: “Arguello said she was asked a week ago by people in Washington and in Colorado ‘who are in direct contact with the White House’ if she ‘would be willing to go through the intense scrutiny’ that would occur if Obama nominates her.”

Her answer: “Yes.”
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #138 on: May 20, 2009, 10:22:47 pm »

Here is more on Arguello:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/05/20/obama-s-surprise-court-choice.aspx

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Also, Sotomayor has dropped quite a bit on Intrade:

Wood 36.0
Kagan 31.0
Sotomayor 18.0
Granholm 13.1
Wardlaw 10.0
Napolitano 5.0

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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #139 on: May 20, 2009, 11:45:01 pm »

There have been a number of factors contributing to Wood's stock skyrocketing.  One of them had to have been this report:

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http://blogs.abcnews.com/legalities/2009/05/judge-wood-goes.html
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Lunar
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« Reply #140 on: May 21, 2009, 12:09:54 am »

Outside of the whole "raising money off of a partisan fight" aspect of the SCOTUS issue, I suspect that Republicans somewhat prefer Wood because she's on the older side of things.

In my opinion, they should root for someone like Sotomayor that has plenty of bad press to feed into the noise machine, regardless of anything else that emerges, and can scream of tokenism.
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Lunar
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« Reply #141 on: May 22, 2009, 01:36:31 am »

here's an article whoring out a particular candidate.  My biggest prob with her is that she's an expert in Georgian, not national, law.  Also, with 60 seats the Democrats hardly need to find someone who's electable in Georgia haha.

http://ninthjustice.nationaljournal.com/2009/05/rauch-move-up-leah-ward-sears.php

I see that Stuart Taylor ranks Leah Ward Sears fourth on his handicap list for the Souter seat. She's stepping down as chief justice of the Georgia state Supreme Court. (She'll practice law and be a fellow of the Institute for American Values, a pro-family think-tank.) The three women above her on Stuart's list are all pretty spectacular people. But I had occasion to meet Sears last November and came away thinking, "That woman is going to be on the Supreme Court." At any rate, when President Obama looks her over, he is going to see a very appealing combination of qualities.

• Pro-family progressivism. Sears describes herself, according to sources in Georgia, as a moderate progressive. In criminal cases, she leans pro-defendant but is no ACLUer. She joined the court's majority in voting to overturn Georgia's sodomy law, earning hostility from the social right. But she also joined a unanimous opinion upholding an initiative banning gay marriage.

And she has a pet cause dear to the heart of social conservatives: shoring up the family. I met Sears in November at a conference ("For Children's Sake: A Summit on Marriage and Family") she was hosting with the Institute for American Values. There's an egalitarian family-law movement on the left that wants to equalize all family structures. No way, she says -- as in this 2006 op-ed in the Washington Post. She combines support for marriage with an egalitarian message: "Marriage is in deep danger of becoming about class structure and privilege." She takes her pro-family message to the black community, too. Obama's gotta like that.

• Political chops. Besides drawing generally high marks for her performance on the state Supreme Court, which she joined in 1992, Sears is an elected judge. A lot of judicial elections are cakewalks for incumbents, but she faced a serious challenge in 2004 from Republicans determined to defeat her and thereby tip the court. She handily beat back charges of being an activist liberal. For a left-of-center African-American in a red state, that is nothing to sneeze at.

Since Sandra Day O'Connor's departure, there has not been anybody on the U.S. Supreme Court with a political background. In fact, all of the current justices are former U.S. appellate judges, and eight went to Yale or Harvard. B-o-o-o-o-ring. Obama presumably wants to deliver on his promise of change, and he also wants to build the Democrats' brand and broaden the party's appeal. Appointing yet another bureaucrat in a black robe would hardly serve either purpose. But Sears, like O'Connor before her, has the potential to cut a national figure and even, perhaps, become a beloved public icon. That would be great for the Democratic brand.

• She's a pistol. At the conference in November, she moderated my session -- a discussion/debate on gay marriage -- with intelligence and no-nonsense aplomb. She can command a room. She is not someone you forget meeting. And she has that Clintonesque ability to make you feel you've bonded with her. On meeting me, she gushed about an article I wrote. ("Caring for Your Introvert." She said she was something of a closet introvert herself.) After three minutes, she had me eating out of her hand.

Obama, I hope, is less of a pushover than I am. But I can pretty much guarantee that Sears will interview well. (Here's a sample.)

Add that she is young (53) and a fresh face despite more than 20 years of experience on the bench. And -- did I almost leave this out? -- she is an African-American female. Her appointment would make history.

The far left of the Democratic Party might squawk about her friendship with Clarence Thomas and her affiliation with the Institute for American Values (which some have characterized as anti-gay, though it's not). That, however, would only help Obama tout her nomination as post-partisan and trans-ideological. Put it all together, and you have a package that takes some beating.
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Lunar
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« Reply #142 on: May 22, 2009, 02:49:14 am »
« Edited: May 22, 2009, 02:51:57 am by Lunar »

This is all a bit complex for me.  The one thing on this forum that I obsess about above all else are appointment decisions.  Yet this is not made completely out of political reasons but also legal influence.


Some of these things are difficult waters to read.

For example:  http://www.scotusblog.com/wp/judge-sotomayor’s-opinions-with-dissents-–-part-i/#more-9591
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These are both part of the same paragraph.  But you see how something this basic could be spun into a conservative blogosphere firestorm?  If we make a firestorm, I want it to be over something worthwhile, like whether someone who's gay can still be considered acceptable to serve.  I don't know.  I shall ponder and make my prediction this weekend.

Wood is by far the most likely candidate as of now.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #143 on: May 22, 2009, 12:13:49 pm »

Taylor's ranking of Napolitano is a joke.  And he has Granholm and Napolitano ahead of Sotomayor, LOL.  He is either disingenuous or doesn't get it.

I would consider Ward Sears a serious candidate, but she is as much of a longshot as Jennifer Granholm, probably more so.  Her academic credentials (Cornell/Emory University School of Law) are not as overtly elite as Sotomayor's (Princeton/Yale Law School) and she would not carry as much political benefit to President Obama as Sotomayor would.  She isn't held in as high regard among legal academics as Diane Wood is.

Ward Sears decision to step down in the middle of her term, allowing Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue to move the Court to the right, has been criticized.  "It is very disappointing," said Stephen Bright, president and senior counsel of the Southern Center for Human Rights. "It appears she doesn't have time to be a judge." And the think tank she will be joining upon leaving the Court is drawing criticism from gay groups.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/15/AR2009051500418.html
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Lunar
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« Reply #144 on: May 23, 2009, 10:38:48 am »

You know, it's not totally unbelievable that Obama could end up on the Supreme Court if the next president is a Democrat.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #145 on: May 23, 2009, 11:26:38 am »

You know, it's not totally unbelievable that Obama could end up on the Supreme Court if the next president is a Democrat.

I wrote about that in another thread.
If it somehow happens, then he will be the first person to serve at the highest level of all three branches of government (President, US Senator and Supreme Court Justice).
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #146 on: May 23, 2009, 03:21:58 pm »
« Edited: May 23, 2009, 03:56:49 pm by Ogre Mage »

My brother's former professor said he thinks there is a secret plan for Sec. Clinton to run for President in 2016 (with Obama's support) and then appoint Obama to the Supreme Court.

In other news, President Obama confirmed in a recent C-SPAN interview that there is going to be an announcement "soon."

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22885.html
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« Reply #147 on: May 23, 2009, 03:26:43 pm »

You know, it's not totally unbelievable that Obama could end up on the Supreme Court if the next president is a Democrat.

I wrote about that in another thread.
If it somehow happens, then he will be the first person to serve at the highest level of all three branches of government (President, US Senator and Supreme Court Justice).
Maybe he could serve as Governor of Illinois until a Supreme Court vacancy opens up? Smiley
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #148 on: May 25, 2009, 06:04:00 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2009, 06:06:55 pm by Ogre Mage »

ABC's Jan Crawford Greenburg and George Stephanopoulos are now echoing my prediction that it is now mainly down to Sotomayor and Wood:

Crawford Greenburg:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=7668848&page=1

Stephanopoulos:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7664212
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #149 on: May 25, 2009, 08:11:02 pm »

I'm gonna go with a longshot: Jennifer Granholm. She's a Harvard Law grad, has the "life experience" thing, and she'll be the fifth sitting governor Obama has given a job to. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but if I'm right, I look brilliant.
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