BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice

[Mr. Morden]

Early Intrade numbers (volume very low):

Sonia Sotomayor 35.0
Jennifer Granholm 20.0
Elena Kagan 20.0
Cass Sunstein 15.0

Other speculation I read suggested that Sotomayor, Kagan, and Diane Wood are the most frequently mentioned possibilities.  Almost everyone thinks that Obama will pick a woman.

Also, this:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0509/Conservatives_target_Sotomayor_Kagan_Wood.html?showall

[Mr. Morden]

Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)

[Mr. Morden]

Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)

I'd put my money on Wood (pause) because of the University of Chicago connection.

Biggest strike against Wood is that she's old....58.  OK, not *that* much older than the others......but still, if Obama is trying for a long lasting impact on the court, he might be tempted to go with someone a few years younger.

[Mr. Morden]

Kagan passes Sotomayor on Intrade:

Kagan 30.0
Sotomayor 25.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Wood 11.0
Granholm 9.9

[Mr. Morden]

Kagan passes Sotomayor on Intrade:

Kagan 30.0
Sotomayor 25.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Wood 11.0
Granholm 9.9

Unless Obama and Rahm have all the buys in Intrade, how much of a predictor is this really?

People are predicting based on what they know of Obama's psychology and the political imperatives he's faced with, as well as their knowledge of the candidates.  It's probably only worth very little....but no less than the betting on the veepstakes last year....or on any appointment for anything.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm starting to think its Kagan and not Sotomayor.  Kagan is younger and more liberal.  This is Obama's best chance he'll ever get to put a real liberal lion on the bench.  The rationale for Sotomayor was always that she was confirmable (Latino, woman, and wasnominated for the District Court by Bush I).  Why would Obama care about confirmable at this point?  There's no danger, absent a scandal, of the nominee losing.  Why not just put up the youngest most liberal person of stature you can find?

I agree with your reasoning, although I think the CW is that, in all likelihood, either Stevens or Ginsburg will retire next year.....with the other one then retiring maybe a year or two later.  So Obama is almost certainly going to get another Supreme Court appointment soon-ish.  Thus, he could give Kagan another year or two of experience and appoint her then, while appointing Sotomayor or someone else this time.  I guess it depends on who else would be in the mix for a second Supreme Court slot.

[Mr. Morden]

Sotomayor retakes the lead on Intrade:

Sotomayor 35.0
Kagan 25.0
Wardlaw 24.0
Wood 15.0
Sears 11.2
Granholm 8.0

[Mr. Morden]

Wardlaw might not look Hispanic enough to count:

[Mr. Morden]

Wood now in third place on Intrade:

Sotomayor 28.5
Kagan 23.0
Wood 16.0
Wardlaw 15.0
Granholm 10.0
Sears 6.0
Sullivan 5.1
Garland 4.9
Karlan 4.8

[Mr. Morden]

Someone call the forestry service.  Wood's on fire:

Sotomayor 27.0
Kagan 25.0
Wood 24.0
Granholm 14.0
Sullivan 5.1
Wardlaw 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Here is more on Arguello:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/05/20/obama-s-surprise-court-choice.aspx

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Also, Sotomayor has dropped quite a bit on Intrade:

Wood 36.0
Kagan 31.0
Sotomayor 18.0
Granholm 13.1
Wardlaw 10.0
Napolitano 5.0