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  BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice (search mode)
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Author Topic: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice  (Read 20341 times)
Ogre Mage
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« on: May 01, 2009, 01:25:58 am »

Take it to the bank that the pick will be a woman.  The smart money is on Sonia Sotomayor.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 2,829
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2009, 12:07:09 pm »

I could see Granholm being chosen, although for the first pick I think Obama is likely to play it slightly safe.  Granholm, Sonia Sotomayor, Diane Wood and Elena Kagan are likely to be looked at most closely.  There is also some lesser speculation about Kim Wardlaw and Leah Ward Sears.

If Obama is willing to appoint a staunch liberal, Kathleen Sullivan or Pam Karlan are strong possibilities.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 2,829
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2009, 05:27:35 am »
« Edited: May 03, 2009, 05:08:18 pm by Ogre Mage »

Why is Granholm being mentioned so often?  Does she have any legal experience?

Obama has said that he would like to appoint a Supreme Court Justice with real world political experience.  Given that the conventional wisdom points to a woman nominee, Granholm, who served as Michigan Attorney General, a U.S. Attorney and earned her law degree from Harvard, fits the bill.  She has no experience as a judge, but I think the idea would be to diversify the court by adding someone who didn't come from the judicial monastery.  All of the current Justices were serving on the Federal Court of Appeals when selected.

She and Pam Karlan might be good out-of-the box choices but I think Obama is more likely to play it safe with the first pick and go with either Sotomayor or Wood, or perhaps Kagan if the other two fall through in the vetting process.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 2,829
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2009, 10:49:47 pm »

I think that if Obama is going to make "symbolic" pick, it's probably best to do it with the first pick.  That way it is likely to ultimately have the biggest impact in the public consciousness, which is what you want with a symbolic pick.  It's why Reagan selected Sandra Day O'Connor first instead of second or third.

Obama will get a second pick because John Paul Stevens is virtually certain to retire sometime during his first term.  Perhaps for the second pick he can focus more on getting an intellectual heavyweight.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 2,829
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2009, 02:32:12 pm »

I don't buy MSNBC's spin about Napolitano either.

What I find curious is that while everyone is talking about Sotomayor, nobody seems to mention the other Hispanic woman in the mix, Kim Wardlaw.

Is she considered less qualified, more divisive or what?


Kim Wardlaw received her undergraduate and law degrees from UCLA.  Sotomayor attended Princeton and Yale Law School.  UCLA is a top-tier law school, but its not as overtly elite as Sotomayor's credentials.

Her last name, Wardlaw, means that the general public may not realize that she is Hispanic.  I wonder if that is a factor.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2009, 08:22:48 pm »

Wood now in third place on Intrade:

Sotomayor 28.5
Kagan 23.0
Wood 16.0
Wardlaw 15.0
Granholm 10.0
Sears 6.0
Sullivan 5.1
Garland 4.9
Karlan 4.8



I have thought for some time that it was basically going to come down to Kagan, Wood and Sotomayor, with Granholm having an outside shot.  Kagan strikes me as slightly less likely than the other two because I think the White House wants her to serve as SG and get some practical courtroom experience which she currently lacks.  Then they can have her primed for the inevitable second opening.

As for Wood vs. Sotomayor, I have no idea.  Both would probably be very good choices.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2009, 02:32:16 pm »
« Edited: May 14, 2009, 02:34:16 pm by Ogre Mage »


I only partially agree with Rick Hasen's analysis.  Still, my prediction is that President Obama will choose either Sonia Sotomayor or Diane Wood for the opening.  Both judges have a very extensive paper trail.  That leaves them open to attacks, but Obama will definitely know what he is getting.
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Ogre Mage
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*****
Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2009, 03:58:25 pm »
« Edited: May 17, 2009, 04:01:30 pm by Ogre Mage »

When names get floated in the media for the Supreme Court, IMO they tend to fall into one of three categories.

The first are those who are truly under serious consideration.  Kagan, Sotomayor and Wood are almost certainly in this category.

The second are those who are being looked at primarily as a courtesy to satisfy some important person(s).  While it's possible for such a person to move from being a courtesy to serious consideration, more often than not I think that a "courtesy candidate" tends to remain just that.  IMO, Carlos Moreno falls into this category.  He was recommended by Senate Judiciary Committee Member Dianne Feinstein.  And it gives the White House the opportunity to say that they looked seriously at more Hispanics than just Sotomayor. 

The third are those whose names are floated just as a smokescreen.  As px75 suggested, I believe Janet Napolitano falls into this category. 
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2009, 02:43:12 pm »

The National Law Journal has a story by Marcia Coyle in which she queries law professors about their preferred choice for the Supreme Court.  Interestingly, Pam Karlan emerges as the top favorite.  In theory, I think Karlan would be a terrific Justice.  However, her confirmation process would be incendiary.

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202430756479

The article also notes very strong support for Diane Wood.  It is a big boon for Wood that she has such strong support from legal academics.  Having the recommendation of that Mandarin class definitely says something about her judicial ability.  Plus, she's a known quantity to Obama and many of his associates from their days together at the University of Chicago Law School.

In contrast, it seems much of Sotomayor's support is more at the street level.  Besides the obvious support of Hispanic organizations, she's been lauded by some community groups.  Someone has even started a "Sonia Sotomayor for U.S. Supreme Court Justice" facebook page with over 2300 members. 

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=74491867940

Not as highbrow as Wood's supporters, but her diverse experience might be compelling to a former community organizer.
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2009, 11:45:01 pm »

There have been a number of factors contributing to Wood's stock skyrocketing.  One of them had to have been this report:

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http://blogs.abcnews.com/legalities/2009/05/judge-wood-goes.html
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2009, 12:13:49 pm »

Taylor's ranking of Napolitano is a joke.  And he has Granholm and Napolitano ahead of Sotomayor, LOL.  He is either disingenuous or doesn't get it.

I would consider Ward Sears a serious candidate, but she is as much of a longshot as Jennifer Granholm, probably more so.  Her academic credentials (Cornell/Emory University School of Law) are not as overtly elite as Sotomayor's (Princeton/Yale Law School) and she would not carry as much political benefit to President Obama as Sotomayor would.  She isn't held in as high regard among legal academics as Diane Wood is.

Ward Sears decision to step down in the middle of her term, allowing Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue to move the Court to the right, has been criticized.  "It is very disappointing," said Stephen Bright, president and senior counsel of the Southern Center for Human Rights. "It appears she doesn't have time to be a judge." And the think tank she will be joining upon leaving the Court is drawing criticism from gay groups.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/15/AR2009051500418.html
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
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Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2009, 03:21:58 pm »
« Edited: May 23, 2009, 03:56:49 pm by Ogre Mage »

My brother's former professor said he thinks there is a secret plan for Sec. Clinton to run for President in 2016 (with Obama's support) and then appoint Obama to the Supreme Court.

In other news, President Obama confirmed in a recent C-SPAN interview that there is going to be an announcement "soon."

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22885.html
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2009, 06:04:00 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2009, 06:06:55 pm by Ogre Mage »

ABC's Jan Crawford Greenburg and George Stephanopoulos are now echoing my prediction that it is now mainly down to Sotomayor and Wood:

Crawford Greenburg:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=7668848&page=1

Stephanopoulos:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7664212
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -4.70


« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2009, 12:16:57 am »

One of my favorite Supreme Court writers, Linda Greenhouse, has a thoughtful editorial on how when a new Justice joins the Court, "you change the Court."  This is true, interestingly, even when the new and departing Justice hold similar views.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/27/opinion/27greenhouse.html

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