Name the next three French Presidents

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, what do you think about doing the same topic that we have for American Presidents ?

Here's my list :
Nicolas Sarkozy : 2007-2012
Dominique Strauss-Khan : 2012-2022
Jean-François Copé : 2022-2027

What do you think about it ?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Nicolas Sarkozy : 2007-2012

Ow, I think that could even be presomptuous.

That said, if we don't know a political mess in times to come, I'd say Bayrou is the one that would have more chances in the future. But personally, I think the times are way too foggy to answer that question.

Concerning Copé, I think that guy is the hell of a serial killer in debates, but to gather people around him, to create something around him, that's an other thing. I very doubt he would have the abilities of a real leader.

[Thomas216]

Where does the certainty in Sarkozy's defeat come from?
Sure he's not very popular right now but the last president losing his reelection bid was Valery Giscard d'Estaing in 1981 and the only socialist president in the last dozens of years (if I recall correctly) was Mitterrand 'til 1995.
Until 2012 there's plenty of time for Sarkozy to rebuild his image, I don't say he will but he could.

And Antonio, why Strauss and where does he stand compared to others, like Royal and Delanoe?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where does the certainty in Sarkozy's defeat come from?
Sure he's not very popular right now but the last president losing his reelection bid was Valery Giscard d'Estaing in 1981 and the only socialist president in the last dozens of years (if I recall correctly) was Mitterrand 'til 1995.
Until 2012 there's plenty of time for Sarkozy to rebuild his image, I don't say he will but he could.

And Antonio, why Strauss and where does he stand compared to others, like Royal and Delanoe?

I'm sure of nothing. It's a possibility. Sarkozy is now a very unpopular president and people has a lot of reasons not to vote for him. Strauss-Khan is the only socialist who today has an image of economical and international competence. Soialist will necessarily have to chose a candidate, and they have interst to take the best one. Copé has the political craftiness and cynism of Sarkozy. If Sarkozy hates him, it's because he knows that when he will want to take his place, he will treat him as Sarkozy treated Chirac.

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

In the fog.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

In the fog.

Didn't you see the American corresponding topic ? And Obama became president only 3 moth ago !

[Hash]

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

In the fog.

Like my list. I don't like making predictions for fear of them being bumped in a few years time and I'm not good at these things.

Where does the certainty in Sarkozy's defeat come from?

As of now, he'd probably lose... though never underestimate the left's ability to shot themselves in the foot at the best time for them. But a week is a long time in politics, years are very long.

Until 2012 there's plenty of time for Sarkozy to rebuild his image, I don't say he will but he could.

Yes!

And Antonio, why Strauss and where does he stand compared to others, like Royal and Delanoe?

Strauss-Kahn is not a member per se of any faction, but he's certainly of the very moderate breed, as opposed to a quasi-Trot like Hamon (after all, DSK is very wealthy). He also appeals to the centre more than party machine politicians like Aubry and Delanoe or a crazy lunatic like Royal. For example, I'd probably vote for him in a runoff against Sarkozy.

[Thomas216]

I'm sure of nothing. It's a possibility. Sarkozy is now a very unpopular president and people has a lot of reasons not to vote for him. Strauss-Khan is the only socialist who today has an image of economical and international competence. Soialist will necessarily have to chose a candidate, and they have interst to take the best one. Copé has the political craftiness and cynism of Sarkozy. If Sarkozy hates him, it's because he knows that when he will want to take his place, he will treat him as Sarkozy treated Chirac.

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

The truth is I'm not a big expert in French politics and for an expert it would be virtually impossible to succeed in predicting the next two presidents but I'll have a go at it.
I think that Sarko will survive his reelection bid in 2012, in 2017 a petty UMP politician will succeed him and in 2022 the socialists will rise.
Who will they be? I don't know, maybe a current minister in Fillon's government (what about Lagarde? Morin?) or a current mayor or, most likely, a current nobody.

Thank you Hashemite, you would be consider a centrist in french politics, wouldn't you?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently nobody saw this topic https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=77200.0.

[Hash]

I'm sure of nothing. It's a possibility. Sarkozy is now a very unpopular president and people has a lot of reasons not to vote for him. Strauss-Khan is the only socialist who today has an image of economical and international competence. Soialist will necessarily have to chose a candidate, and they have interst to take the best one. Copé has the political craftiness and cynism of Sarkozy. If Sarkozy hates him, it's because he knows that when he will want to take his place, he will treat him as Sarkozy treated Chirac.

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

The truth is I'm not a big expert in French politics and for an expert it would be virtually impossible to succeed in predicting the next two presidents but I'll have a go at it.
I think that Sarko will survive his reelection bid in 2012, in 2017 a petty UMP politician will succeed him and in 2022 the socialists will rise.
Who will they be? I don't know, maybe a current minister in Fillon's government (what about Lagarde? Morin?) or a current mayor or, most likely, a current nobody.

Thank you Hashemite, you would be consider a centrist in french politics, wouldn't you?

Jean-François Copé (President of the UMP group in the National Assembly, and a rival of Sarkozy/Xavier Bertrand) seems to be really interested in 2017, though 2017 is an awful long time and nobody can predict what will happen by then.

Xavier Bertrand, the General Secretary of the UMP and a close Sarkozyste could be interested.

Hervé Morin probably won't run since he doesn't have the UMP behind him (just the NC, barely) and his name recognition is zero.

Christine Lagarde? Probably not. She doesn't seem like a career politician/party politician to me.

[Thomas216]

I'm sure of nothing. It's a possibility. Sarkozy is now a very unpopular president and people has a lot of reasons not to vote for him. Strauss-Khan is the only socialist who today has an image of economical and international competence. Soialist will necessarily have to chose a candidate, and they have interst to take the best one. Copé has the political craftiness and cynism of Sarkozy. If Sarkozy hates him, it's because he knows that when he will want to take his place, he will treat him as Sarkozy treated Chirac.

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

The truth is I'm not a big expert in French politics and for an expert it would be virtually impossible to succeed in predicting the next two presidents but I'll have a go at it.
I think that Sarko will survive his reelection bid in 2012, in 2017 a petty UMP politician will succeed him and in 2022 the socialists will rise.
Who will they be? I don't know, maybe a current minister in Fillon's government (what about Lagarde? Morin?) or a current mayor or, most likely, a current nobody.

Thank you Hashemite, you would be consider a centrist in french politics, wouldn't you?

Jean-François Copé (President of the UMP group in the National Assembly, and a rival of Sarkozy/Xavier Bertrand) seems to be really interested in 2017, though 2017 is an awful long time and nobody can predict what will happen by then.

Xavier Bertrand, the General Secretary of the UMP and a close Sarkozyste could be interested.

Hervé Morin probably won't run since he doesn't have the UMP behind him (just the NC, barely) and his name recognition is zero.

Christine Lagarde? Probably not. She doesn't seem like a career politician/party politician to me.

Forgot about Morin though it's weird to imagine a defence minister with no name recognition.

[Hash]

I'm sure of nothing. It's a possibility. Sarkozy is now a very unpopular president and people has a lot of reasons not to vote for him. Strauss-Khan is the only socialist who today has an image of economical and international competence. Soialist will necessarily have to chose a candidate, and they have interst to take the best one. Copé has the political craftiness and cynism of Sarkozy. If Sarkozy hates him, it's because he knows that when he will want to take his place, he will treat him as Sarkozy treated Chirac.

Anyways, where are your own lists ?

The truth is I'm not a big expert in French politics and for an expert it would be virtually impossible to succeed in predicting the next two presidents but I'll have a go at it.
I think that Sarko will survive his reelection bid in 2012, in 2017 a petty UMP politician will succeed him and in 2022 the socialists will rise.
Who will they be? I don't know, maybe a current minister in Fillon's government (what about Lagarde? Morin?) or a current mayor or, most likely, a current nobody.

Thank you Hashemite, you would be consider a centrist in french politics, wouldn't you?

Jean-François Copé (President of the UMP group in the National Assembly, and a rival of Sarkozy/Xavier Bertrand) seems to be really interested in 2017, though 2017 is an awful long time and nobody can predict what will happen by then.

Xavier Bertrand, the General Secretary of the UMP and a close Sarkozyste could be interested.

Hervé Morin probably won't run since he doesn't have the UMP behind him (just the NC, barely) and his name recognition is zero.

Christine Lagarde? Probably not. She doesn't seem like a career politician/party politician to me.

Forgot about Morin though it's weird to imagine a defence minister with no name recognition.

Defense is a much lesser ministry than it is in Israel. Morin got Defense probably since the NC needed a relatively high-placed cabinet minister.

Les Guignols (a French political puppet show) makes fun of his name recognition by getting some random guy act as Morin since "nobody knows who he is anyways".

[big bad fab]

Realistic and low-profile prediction:

Nicolas Sarkozy 2007-2012
Martine Aubry 2012-2017
Xavier Bertrand 2017-2022
Vincent Peillon 2022-2032


"Just paving the way for Pécresse" and yee-hah prediction:

Nicolas Sarkozy 2007-2012
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 2012-2017
Valérie Pécresse 2017-2027
Rama Yade 2027-2032 (or Valérie Pécresse, president for life)


Personal prediction:

Nicolas Sarkozy 2007-2017 (yes, he'll manage to win, despite bad odds, "à la Chirac", because of divided socialists, bad Aubry campaign and irresolute Bayrou)

Vincent Peillon 2017-2022 (socialist MEP, who has just stolen "royalist" wing of the PS; good-looking, fairly moderate but not too far from the left, good inside-the-party manager, quite clever)

Laurent Wauquiez 2022-2032 (young UMP employment secretary of state; very clever, kind with people, good on TV, mainstream right)

[Math]

IMO, either Sarkozy will be reelected in 2012 or Bayrou will beat him, but socialist candidates don't stand a (fair) chance of winning.

So here's my two predictions :

Sarkozy (2007-2017)
Peillon (2017-2022)
Copé (2022-2027)


or

Sarkozy (1007-2012)
Bayrou (2012-2017)
Copé (2017-2027)
(such an horrible future, for sure).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why everybody sees Peillon as a prominent candidate ?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Why everybody sees Peillon as a prominent candidate ?

Yes, so weird. That guy isn't a leader. He can't gather around him.

Like Wauqiez, not a leader at all.

We're speaking of the president of France, right?

[Math]

Yes, so weird. That guy isn't a leader. He can't gather around him.

We're speaking of the president of France, right?

Was Sarkozy this kind of guy ten years ago?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, so weird. That guy isn't a leader. He can't gather around him.

We're speaking of the president of France, right?

Was Sarkozy this kind of guy ten years ago?

Oh actually, yeah.

Frankly, I well discovered Sarkozy in 2002, while he became Home Minister, when I saw that guy I told me: "Damn, that guy wanna go far, and I don't see what could stop him", I had that feeling until the nomination of Royal, November 2006, here during a few minutes, I doubted, and then I thought that Sarkozy was still ahead.

Well, OK, in 2002, it might have been easy to see that, but frankly when you look at him earlier, that was that guy who want to be in charge... Remember the "maternelle de Neuilly" for example? (for those who don't know, Sarkozy, mayor of Neuilly at the time, physically involved himself in the ruling of an hostages taking in a school of lil kids)

Throught the young ones, the one that I see as a potential leader in the future is Jean-Christophe Lagarde NC, that guy would have the abilities I think, then, maybe there are others who could have that potential, but I don't think to one by now...

Through other young ones:

Valls is a kitty who think he can become a tiger, Rama Yade could have a potential, but she's a bit too egocentric I feel to become a strong leader in the sens it seems she's not ready to sacrifice a lot of things of her personal life for politics, maybe I'm wrong for her, we'll see. Pécresse is too much a soldier, that's not a leader. I already said what I thought of Coppé.

There is an other interesting personality, Delphine Batho, at PS, supporting Royal until now, she seems enough strong and interesting but I don't know her enough.

Still, there might be some I forget...

Anyways, for the opponent to Sarkozy in our times, the only strong ones I see are:

Bayrou, Strauss-Kahn, and Besancenot.

Besancenot: in case of crash of the economy he would have the most of chances, as well as if the downturn lasts a long time, or maybe just if France enters step by step in a social fever.

Strauss-Kahn: he is very strong, clear, pedagogic, reassuring, a good captain, but if he would have to run against Bayrou, he would appear too much as a technocrat I think, and would loose.

Bayrou: for me he has all the qualities to be the best leader in France nowadays.

All of this is IMO, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, so weird. That guy isn't a leader. He can't gather around him.

We're speaking of the president of France, right?

Was Sarkozy this kind of guy ten years ago?

Oh actually, yeah.

Frankly, I well discovered Sarkozy in 2002, while he became Home Minister, when I saw that guy I told me: "Damn, that guy wanna go far, and I don't see what could stop him", I had that feeling until the nomination of Royal, November 2006, here during a few minutes, I doubted, and then I thought that Sarkozy was still ahead.

Well, OK, in 2002, it might have been easy to see that, but frankly when you look at him earlier, that was that guy who want to be in charge... Remember the "maternelle de Neuilly" for example? (for those who don't know, Sarkozy, mayor of Neuilly at the time, physically involved himself in the ruling of an hostages taking in a school of lil kids)

Agreed. Since 1995, everybody knew he would be president, though a less ridiculous socialist candidate could have prevented that.

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I don't think that Besancenot has any real chance to ever become president. Yes, he's quite popular, a poll gives him as the third better opponent for Sarkozy. But he remains, and will ever remain an extremist. An extreminst can be very popular, incredibly popular : it can even be qualified for the 2nd round. But the idea that he could get more than 50% is not credible. Ah, and don't forget that he claims not wanting the job !

About Bayrou and Strauss-Khan, agreed. Though it would be really funny for a centrist to paint a socialist as a technocrat...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I don't think that Besancenot has any real chance to ever become president. Yes, he's quite popular, a poll gives him as the third better opponent for Sarkozy. But he remains, and will ever remain an extremist. An extreminst can be very popular, incredibly popular : it can even be qualified for the 2nd round. But the idea that he could get more than 50% is not credible

Yep, that's what I conditioned this possibility to an "extreme situation". An extreme person for an extreme situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think that Besancenot has any real chance to ever become president. Yes, he's quite popular, a poll gives him as the third better opponent for Sarkozy. But he remains, and will ever remain an extremist. An extreminst can be very popular, incredibly popular : it can even be qualified for the 2nd round. But the idea that he could get more than 50% is not credible

Yep, that's what I conditioned this possibility to an "extreme situation". An extreme person for an extreme situation.

With "extreme situation" you mean a second French Revolution ? The Crisis is hard, in France it's hardest than elsewere because we used to have a very efficient welfare state protection that today is breaking. But to elect a man as Besancenot, It would necessarily mean an unbelievable chaos. Is it possible in a democratic state ? I hope it's not.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I don't think that Besancenot has any real chance to ever become president. Yes, he's quite popular, a poll gives him as the third better opponent for Sarkozy. But he remains, and will ever remain an extremist. An extreminst can be very popular, incredibly popular : it can even be qualified for the 2nd round. But the idea that he could get more than 50% is not credible

Yep, that's what I conditioned this possibility to an "extreme situation". An extreme person for an extreme situation.

With "extreme situation" you mean a second French Revolution ? The Crisis is hard, in France it's hardest than elsewere because we used to have a very efficient welfare state protection that today is breaking. But to elect a man as Besancenot, It would necessarily mean an unbelievable chaos. Is it possible in a democratic state ? I hope it's not.

I think the conditions I've mentioned above could be, we never know, according to the way the situation evolute, give him a chance. His political ideas and what he denounced for years now are more than ever able to have an echo.

I've made a thread to speak about that eventuality:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=94919.0

[Hash]

Oh dear, please not the OMGBesancenot drivel again.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh dear, please not the OMGBesancenot drivel again.

Did I say, OMG? Let's authorize ourselves to think...

[Hash]

Oh dear, please not the OMGBesancenot drivel again.

Did I say, OMG? Let's authorize ourselves to think...

I think we sufficiently went over Besancenot in the other thread. No need to continue.