Ensign/Hutchison V. Obama/Biden...

[JSojourner]

Obama's in the low to mid 50's.  (I put KBH down as Ensign's running mate but I realize she will probably be in the middle of her first term as Governor of Texas.  I was trying to think of a mainstream conservative -- though not wingnutty -- woman.  Bachmann and Palin are wingnuts.  Rell and Snowe are too centrist.)  Anyway -- the main matchup is Obama-Ensign.

Feel free to create maps...

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'll do a map at a later time, but depending on how well Harry Reid does in Nevada in the next three years, I can see a possible reverse-coattail effect keeping Nevada blue.  Although, if Reid is not popular among his constituencies and Ensign is, then it might bring down Reid in Nevada and possibly flip the state red again.  So, as far as Nevada is concerned, I think Harry Reid is the Wild Card for those 5 (likely 6) Electoral Votes.

[Coburn In 2012]

Ensign is super-smart.  I don't buy that states like Ohio and Pennsylvania won't vote Republican again like the democrats say.  (of course they say that...)

The only one I am not sure about is New Mexico.  I think it could go REpublican too.

[pbrower2a]

Ensign is super-smart.  I don't buy that states like Ohio and Pennsylvania won't vote Republican again like the democrats say.  (of course they say that...)

The only one I am not sure about is New Mexico.  I think it could go REpublican too.

The Favorite Son effect is enough to make Nevada close, but any GOP candidate will still smart from the subprime lending/real estate crash. Ensign won't win his home state.  Neither Ensign nor Hutchinson has much to offer that the GOP doesn't have to offer east of the Mississippi. Neither can deliver Arizona, or for that matter, any state that was really close in 2008.

Obama will be running on his record. Green is for states that Obama wins if he can pick up a big chunk of the poor white vote -- 49 electoral votes, which is bigger than Texas as a prize. Obama's recent approval polls suggest that he is picking up much support in those states that Clinton won in the 'nineties but Obama didn't in 2008.  The polarization that marked and marred the 2008 election is fading.

Super-smart isn't enough; Herbert Hoover was "super-smart", too, and look what that did for him in 1932.

[Lief 🗽]

If Obama won the poor white vote (or did well enough to win states like Louisiana and Kentucky), then he'd easily win Mississippi.

[Daniel Z]

With an approval rating in the mid to low 50s Obama is a virtual lock to win reelection. Ensign may prevent a few western states (AZ,NV,CO) from going to Obama that otherwise would. Marginal Democratic states such as IN and OH may return to the Republicans but that is probably Ensigns ceiling.
(EV not adjusted for redistricting)

Obama/Biden: ~292
Ensign/Hutchison: ~246

This map is very generous to Ensign

[Joe Republic]

If Obama won the poor white vote (or did well enough to win states like Louisiana and Kentucky), then he'd easily win Mississippi.

Obama would never win the poor white vote in Mississippi, under any circumstances in which his opponent was white.

[Lief 🗽]

If Obama won the poor white vote (or did well enough to win states like Louisiana and Kentucky), then he'd easily win Mississippi.

Obama would never win the poor white vote in Mississippi, under any circumstances in which his opponent was white.

Hence the parenthetical statement, friend.

[tmthforu94]

It wouldn't be too pathetic. Republicans lose Missouri and Georgia. Democrats lose North Carolina, Indiana, NE-02, and Nevada.

Map on Election Day:

Final Results:

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Roughly a 340-198 Obama victory, depending on electoral vote changes.

[Lief 🗽]

I seriously doubt Ensign swings Nevada. Obama won it by 13 points and way overperformed there, against a "Western" Republican.

[Keystone Phil]

I seriously doubt Ensign swings Nevada. Obama won it by 13 points and way overperformed there, against a "Western" Republican.

He won it by that much in a horrible year and he wasn't running against a popular Nevadan.

[Lief 🗽]

I seriously doubt Ensign swings Nevada. Obama won it by 13 points and way overperformed there, against a "Western" Republican.

He won it by that much in a horrible year and he wasn't running against a popular Nevadan.

If Obama's approvals are 55% or so in 2012, then it will be a bad year for the GOP. And Ensign isn't that popular, as far as I know. He's never won more than 55% of the vote in his state.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No chance Obama loses in 2012 if he has a 55% approval rating. He'll win Nevada as well, albeit by a smaller margin than he did in 2008.

[pbrower2a]

If Obama won the poor white vote (or did well enough to win states like Louisiana and Kentucky), then he'd easily win Mississippi.

Right. In Mississippi (and Alabama) the GOP is the White People's Party, and the Democratic Party is the Black People's Party. That sort of polarization ensures machine politics even in hick towns and rural districts and the sort of corruption that one sees in Chicago -- but without the usual efficiency.

[7,052,770]

If Obama won the poor white vote (or did well enough to win states like Louisiana and Kentucky), then he'd easily win Mississippi.

Right. In Mississippi (and Alabama) the GOP is the White People's Party, and the Democratic Party is the Black People's Party. That sort of polarization ensures machine politics even in hick towns and rural districts and the sort of corruption that one sees in Chicago -- but without the usual efficiency.

[Jeff from NC]

Roughly a 340-198 Obama victory, depending on electoral vote changes.

I see Ensign as a more conservative version of McCain, so this is pretty much the map I'd write except for Nevada.  Ensign is a staunch conservative and this would help him hold Arizona.  He'd probably win back the conservatives that McCain lost in the Carolinas, though I'm less sure about Indiana.  On the other hand, Obama would still crush Ensign in Nevada.  My gut says Obama's popularity beats Ensign's there.  On the other hand, Obama would probably have the entire northeast locked down (including Pennsylvania), so he could probably go on the offensive and give Ensign a run for his money in the Dakotas and Montana.