2008: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Pawlenty

[pragmatic liberal]

In the Republican primaries, Mike Huckabee upsets John McCain in South Carolina. Romney wins Florida and after a prolonged battle with Huckabee and a weakened McCain emerges as the Republican nominee. He picks Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota as his running mate.

The Democratic Primaries go as they do in RL, and Obama is nominated and selects Joe Biden as his running mate.

What happens?

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My prediction:

The eventual result is actually quite similar to real life. Romney does better in Michigan and Minnesota, as well as slightly better in the Northeast and in the Mormon West. But turnout throughout the South is low due to low enthusiasm among evangelical voters. Arizona is also extremely tight, as Obama contests it with McCain out of the race.

Still, in the end, the popular vote winds up being quite similar to RL, with only Missouri flipping to Obama. (I see Romney ultimately outperforming McCain in the popular vote slightly, due to a better response to the financial crisis.)

Obama/Biden: 376 E.V., 52% of the vote
Romney/Pawlenty: 162 E.V., 46% of the vote

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[True Democrat]

I was debating about this with my friend the other day.  He claimed Romney would've made it close due to his economic "expertise," but I think for every voter Romney picks up on the economy, he would lose one of McCain's remaining moderates.  However, Romney did have a better organization than McCain (though, just about everyone beats McCain in that department).  However, there is lower turnout among social conservatives due to no Palin and Romney being a Mormon, though it's not significant.  And no, Romney doesn't make Michigan close, at all.  Same with Pawlenty in Minnesota.

Something like this I suppose:

Obama wins 374-164

Arizona might be a longshot, but whatever.

[JerryBrown2010]

To be fair Romney would do much better, but Obama would still win Romney would do better with the Economy Issue than McCain did.

Popular Vote
       
                    Obama: 51.6%
                     Romney:48.1%

Electoral Vote

Obama:  316
Romney: 222

[pragmatic liberal]

I was debating about this with my friend the other day.  He claimed Romney would've made it close due to his economic "expertise," but I think for every voter Romney picks up on the economy, he would lose one of McCain's remaining moderates.  However, Romney did have a better organization than McCain (though, just about everyone beats McCain in that department).  However, there is lower turnout among social conservatives due to no Palin and Romney being a Mormon, though it's not significant.  And no, Romney doesn't make Michigan close, at all.  Same with Pawlenty in Minnesota.

Oh I don't think Michigan would be a lot closer or even close - just a little closer - 3-4 points maybe. And Minnesota probably just a point or 2 or maybe none at all.

Whether Romney would have done better than McCain is a tough call. I tend to think that Romney's atrocious numbers vis-a-vis Hillary and Obama were likely to go up. A lot of disgruntled conservatives and Republicans would ultimately have come home. McCain ran such an erratic, chaotic campaign and the Palin nomination, though popular with the base, was a big turn-off with independents and moderates and provided tons of bad press. Romney would also have been a far more credible spokesman on the economy than McCain.

OTOH, Romney failed to gain much traction in the primary despite tons of money. Maybe had he used the message he used in the Michigan Primary from the start and carried it through - but otherwise? And most people thought Romney came off as smarmy and fake. So it's a tough call.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obama : 55%, 410 E.V.
Romney : 43%, 128 E.V.

McCain was actually the best republican candidate : the only who would not lose by a landslide.