black voting stats?

[WalterMitty]

anyone know where i can find some stats on black voting in presidential elections?

[JohnFKennedy]

i can tell you that a majority who do vote tend to vote for the Democrats I think.

[TheWildCard]

i can tell you that a majority who do vote tend to vote for the Democrats I think.

That only really started when Affirmative Action was introducedI believe(though LBJ did say without the support of the Republicans in the Senate(or maybe it was the house) it never would have pssed.)

[WalterMitty]

jfk,

blacks today vote overwhelmingly democratic, but that hasnt always been the case.  that is why im looking for some hard numbers from different elections.

[minionofmidas]

Well, obviously there aren't any "hard" numbers. Just exit polls. And of course you can compare county and precinct results with their black percentages.
If memory serves me right, those Blacks who did vote voted overwhelmingly Republican until 1933. Since then they've voted overwhelmingly Democratic. The first ever Northern Black Rep. was a Republican and was elected in Chicago in 1930. Two years later he was defeated by a Democrat, who stayed in the house for 30 or 40 years.
The exact percentages have changed though. The current 90-8 balance is the work of O.J.Simpson and the Contract With America. In 1992 Clinton "only" got 82% of the Black vote, if I remember correctly.
Black turnout was low in the North and nonexisting in the South until the 60's. Nowadays it's not that much less than White turnout. If you compare Blacks with White of comparable income, their turnout is clearly higher.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Especially in rural areas in the Deep South.

[dunn]

[dunn]

A PRELIMINARY COMPILATION ON BLACK VOTER TURNOUT AND THE 2002 ELECTIONS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND OVERVIEW

African American voter turnout in the 2002 midterm election has been the subject of much speculation and finger pointing.  In past elections, the Voter News Service (VNS), a consortium of news organizations, provided detailed information about the voters.  But at the last minute, VNS announced that for unspecified technical reasons, it could not vouch for the accuracy of the data collected.  Consequently, there is no comprehensive demographic information on who voted and why on November 5th.

While news organizations like the Miami Herald, the St. Petersburg Times and the Los Angeles Times conducted their own exit poll surveys, most analyses of black voter turnout have been based on speculation--hunches--rather than real numbers. The reason:  It will likely be months before hard data are available.

The National Coalition on Black Civic Participation's preliminary estimate of black voter turnout is based on anecdotal evidence gathered from its Operation Big Vote (OBV) and Black Youth Vote (BYV!) field sites in 60 cities and 27 states.

For more than 25 years, OBV, a nonpartisan grassroots coalition, has conducted registration, education, motivation and mobilization drives in targeted African American communities nationwide.  BYV! is a broad-based coalition of organizations and individuals committed to increasing the political and civic participation of African American men and women under age 35.

The National Coalition's estimate incorporates media analyses of voting precinct records and unofficial counts from state and local election boards.  We believe that when the numbers are finally in, black turnout will be on a par with the overall turnout rate of 39.3 percent estimated by Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate (up from 37.5 percent in 1998).

Though modest, the turnout is consistent with nonpresidential elections.  Indeed, any attempt to compare black voter turnout in 2002 with 2000 is akin to comparing apples with oranges.  The 2000 turnout is an erroneous baseline because turnout is higher across all racial and ethnic groups in presidential elections.  The more apt comparison is with black turnout in the 1994 and 1998 midterm elections.

It bears remembering that the U.S. Census Bureau later debunked early reports of low black turnout in the 1998 midterm election.  The Census Bureau found that "African Americans were the only racial or ethnic group to defy the trend of declining voter participation in congressional elections, increasing their presence from 37 percent in 1994 to 40 percent in 1998."

In any event, it is clear that the black vote was the deciding factor in several closely contested races in the South and Midwest.  But turnout does not happen in a vacuum.  Voters must be educated about a candidate's positions on the issues that matter to them and feel personally connected to a candidate.

An effective mobilization campaign requires a coherent message that resonates with the targeted voters, strategic and tactical planning, and resources.  As Louisiana state Sen. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) told The Daily Advertiser, "If you don't respect us, don't expect us."

[minionofmidas]

What's your source, Dunn? You left out the source!
That goes both for the article and for the graphic.

[dunn]

What's your source, Dunn? You left out the source!
That goes both for the article and for the graphic.

the 2nd one - the article - is from 'the National Coalition On Black voters Participation'

[minionofmidas]

And the first one? What's it based on? Exit polls?

[dunn]

And the first one? What's it based on? Exit polls?

a oeganization named 'usa votenet' - a feminst group

[© tweed]

Exit polls in 2000 show it to be Gore 90%-Bush 9%.

[WalterMitty]

i dont think blacks abruptly stopped voting republican and switched to the dems.  it was probably a more gradual process.

ive been told by certain folks (i have no numbers to back this up) that eisenhower did fairly well with black voters, and in 1960 nixon received a decent percentage of black votes in 1960 vs. jfk.

i guess 1964 probably marked the end of blacks voting with the gop.  it is interesting to note that some counties in the south with the highest black populations, were the counties that voted in the highest numbers for goldwater and wallace.  nowadays, those counties vote overwhelmingly democratic.  im hypothesizing that blacks in those counties werent voting in high numbers in 1964 and 68?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Certainly not in 1964, but by '68 a hellofalot more blacks were registered to vote. Wallace lost Macon, AL

[Huckleberry Finn]

Dunn's statistics shows that Bush got only 5 percent in Texas! Worst than in any other state. It seems that Bush wasn't very popular governor among Afro-American.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True

[Kghadial]

Dunn's statistics shows that Bush got only 5 percent in Texas! Worst than in any other state. It seems that Bush wasn't very popular governor among Afro-American.

That's my favorite statistic to quote at my Republican friends when they start talking about Colin Powell and Rice.

African-Americans who know Bush pretty much don't like him.

I think it an encouraging one for Democrats as well. Now that African-Americans all around the country know Bush well, they might mirror Texas African-Americans in turnout and anti-Bush voting.  African-Americans in Texas made up less than 12% of the Voting Age Population but they made up 15% for the turnout.

[dazzleman]

African-Americans in Texas made up less than 12% of the Voting Age Population but they made up 15% for the turnout.

How does that square with constant Democratic claims that Republicans try to suppress the black vote?

[Kghadial]

African-Americans in Texas made up less than 12% of the Voting Age Population but they made up 15% for the turnout.

How does that square with constant Democratic claims that Republicans try to suppress the black vote?

In Texas there was no reason for the Republicans to suppress the African - American vote

But Seriously,  Blacks in recent elections have on occassion turned out at a very high rate.  The reason being that they are often the most Partisan supporters of the Democratic party in any election. Everyone knows that the Base turnouts better than anyone else. However, if  in a large state southern state you illegally remove 50,000 African-Americans from the voter rolls that wouldn't change the black turnout percentage much. It certainly could change the election though.

I'm not saying that this is the case though

[zachman]

Black voters do tend to be the most partisan supporters of the democrats. They voted by a substantial margin for Kerry over Edwards in Georgia, and at an even rate for both in South Carolina. I find it annoying how the media thinks that Sharpton represents black voters. I think that black voters have finally integrated into democratic politics without race as the defining characteristic of their vote.

[??????????]

Black voters do tend to be the most partisan supporters of the democrats. They voted by a substantial margin for Kerry over Edwards in Georgia, and at an even rate for both in South Carolina. I find it annoying how the media thinks that Sharpton represents black voters. I think that black voters have finally integrated into democratic politics without race as the defining characteristic of their vote.

That last sentence is BS.

[bullmoose88]

Certainly not in 1964, but by '68 a hellofalot more blacks were registered to vote. Wallace lost Macon, AL

Also believe Nixon got about a 3rd of the black vote in 68...the GOP could get about 20-30 of the black vote in the 60s and 70s and then it went down hill with Reagan...came back up just a tad for Bush Sr...and back down hill

[??????????]

Certainly not in 1964, but by '68 a hellofalot more blacks were registered to vote. Wallace lost Macon, AL

Also believe Nixon got about a 3rd of the black vote in 68...the GOP could get about 20-30 of the black vote in the 60s and 70s and then it went down hill with Reagan...came back up just a tad for Bush Sr...and back down hill

The problem is they believe Republicans are "The man" and we are out to get them. When in all truthfulness that is a load of crock. Clinton played the role of "the man is out to get me" that's why he is the "first black president".

[bullmoose88]

Certainly not in 1964, but by '68 a hellofalot more blacks were registered to vote. Wallace lost Macon, AL

Also believe Nixon got about a 3rd of the black vote in 68...the GOP could get about 20-30 of the black vote in the 60s and 70s and then it went down hill with Reagan...came back up just a tad for Bush Sr...and back down hill

The problem is they believe Republicans are "The man" and we are out to get them. When in all truthfulness that is a load of crock. Clinton played the role of "the man is out to get me" that's why he is the "first black president".

Well to be fair...Reagan did kick off his 80 Campaign in Philadelphia Mississippi talking about states rights...which is commonly thought to be some code word for racism or the like. I don't buy that but I can see why its made.