Analysis of 2008 California municipal results
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2009, 04:20:57 PM »

     I have relatives in Milpitas. I hope they voted no on 8. Sad
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Shilly
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« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2009, 04:31:11 PM »

Milpitas voted yes on 8?? Interesting. Now I really want to see Fremont precinct results map.
I have one for all of Alameda County.
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Alcon
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« Reply #27 on: April 12, 2009, 05:41:08 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2009, 05:43:22 PM by Alcon »

Milpitas voted yes on Prop. 8 and it wasn't even close: 57.49%.

Prop. 1A (High-Speed Train Bond)
1. San Francisco (San Francisco) - 78.33%
2. Berkeley (Alameda) - 76.37%
3. West Hollywood (Los Angeles) - 74.79%
4. Sebastopol (Sonoma) - 73.31%
5. Fairfax (Marin) - 72.63%
6. Emeryville (Alameda) - 73.24%
7. Colma (San Mateo) - 71.89%
8. Point Arena (Mendocino) - 71.82%
9. Mill Valley (Marin) - 71.50%
10. Oakland (Alameda) - 70.90%
11. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz) - 69.74%
12. Albany (Alameda) - 69.65%
13. San Anselmo (Marin) - 69.46%
14. Daly City (San Mateo) - 68.92%
15. Sausalito (Marin) - 68.79%
16. East Palo Alto (San Mateo) - 68.62%
17. McFarland (Kern) - 68.29%
18. Calexico (Imperial) - 68.26%
19. Coachella (Riverside) - 68.21%
20. El Cerrito (Contra Costa) - 68.18%
...
460. Paradise (Butte) - 32.43%
461. Yreka (Siskiyou) - 32.31%
462. Villa Park (Orange) - 31.29%
463. Susanville (Lassen) - 31.08%
464. Biggs (Butte) - 30.66%
465. Tehama (Tehama) - 30.27%
466. Fortuna (Humboldt) - 30.22%
467. Tulelake (Siskiyou) - 30.00%
468. Rio Dell (Humboldt) - 29.84%
469. Plymouth (Amador) - 29.75%
470. Willows (Glenn) - 29.74%
471. Corning (Tehama) - 29.60%
472. City of Industry (Los Angeles) - 28.85%
473. Loyalton (Sierra) - 28.69%
474. Orland (Glenn) - 28.65%
475. Etna (Siskiyou) - 27.98%
476. Alturas (Modoc) - 26.46%
477. Montague (Siskiyou) - 25.95%
478. Dorris (Siskiyou) - 24.60%
479. Fort Jones (Siskiyou) - 24.45%

Urban liberal areas liked it (as did rural Hispanic towns, apparently); rural conservative ones, especially in the remote North, didn't.   The Humboldt County entries on the "no" list are odd.
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Alcon
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« Reply #28 on: April 12, 2009, 05:50:12 PM »

Prop. 11 (Redistricting, per request)
1. Belvedere (Marin) - 71.36%
2. Portola Valley (San Mateo) - 68.58%
3. Atherton (San Mateo) - 65.89%
4. Ross (Marin) - 65.26%
5. Sand City (Monterey) - 64.58%
6. Rolling Hills (Los Angeles) - 63.74%
7. Orinda (Contra Costa) - 63.56%
8. Los Altos Hills (Santa Clara) - 63.35%
9. Woodside (San Mateo) - 63.19%
10. Monte Sereno (Santa Clara) - 63.03%
...
470. Guadalupe (Santa Barbara) - 38.00%
471. Fort Jones (Siskiyou) - 37.64%
472. Inglewood (Los Angeles) - 37.57%
473. San Francisco (San Francisco) - 36.94%
474. Compton (Los Angeles) - 36.76%
475. East Palo Alto (San Mateo) - 36.43%
476. Greenfield (Monterey) - 35.43%
477. Soledad (Monterey) - 35.37%
478. Gonzales (Monterey) - 35.25%
479. Tulelake (Siskiyou) - 32.84%

Very liberal towns and very conservative ones both voted "no."  Wealthy left-leaning suburbs were the strongest performances.  Hispanic voters were pretty strongly "no."  Weird results.
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Sbane
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« Reply #29 on: April 12, 2009, 06:20:22 PM »

Regarding the Alameda county map, it looks like the affluent and heavily Asian mission district of Fremont voted yes on 8. The Milpitas results make more sense now. Also I think the exit polls understated the support for 8 amongst Asians and Latinos while overstating it amongst blacks. Easily explained by subsample margin of error.

Regarding the prop1a results, it makes a lot of sense that those logging towns in humboldt would vote against something that doesn't benefit them in the least.
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Alcon
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« Reply #30 on: April 12, 2009, 07:06:43 PM »

Prop. 4 (Parental notification on abortion)
1. Holtville (Imperial) - 78.51%
2. Westmorland (Imperial) - 75.91%
3. San Joaquin (Fresno) - 75.29%
4. Imperial (Imperial) - 75.19%
5. Calexico (Imperial) - 75.13%
6. Wasco (Kern) - 75.11%
7. McFarland (Kern) - 74.95%
8. Mendota (Fresno) - 74.66%
9. El Centro (Imperial) - 73.37%
10. Calipatria (Imperial) - 73.14%
...
470. Piedmont (Alameda) - 20.74%
471. Arcata (Humboldt) - 20.30%
472. West Hollywood (Los Angeles) - 19.51%
473. San Anselmo (Marin) - 18.40%
474. Albany (Alameda) - 18.25%
475. Point Arena (Mendocino) - 17.03%
476. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz) - 16.49%
477. Mill Valley (Marin) - 16.32%
478. Fairfax (Marin) - 15.88%
479. Berkeley (Alameda) - 14.10%

I doubt there's any need for commentary on this one.
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nclib
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« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2009, 08:14:33 PM »

I'm trying to compile the largest and most densely populated cities in California that McCain carried. I've only checked So. Cal. and Bakersfield, so please make additions if you can.

City (county)          McCain margin             pop.

Bakersfield (Kern)      12.674%   308,392   
Huntington Beach (Orange)   7.339%   194,436
Santa Clarita (Los Angeles)   2.747%   168,008
Garden Grove (Orange)   4.312%   166,296
Corona (Riverside)      0.683%   150,253

City (county)            McCain margin    density

Garden Grove (Orange)   4.312%      9,238.7
Westminster (Orange)   13.986%      8,952.0
Huntington Beach (Orange)      7.339%      7,478.3
El Cajon (San Diego)      5.209%      6,554.0
Lake Forest (Orange)      9.203%      6,360.3

Anyone know any more about these cities?
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Torie
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« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2009, 11:03:37 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2009, 11:18:18 AM by Torie »

Bay Area towns dominate this list, either for ethnic diversity, "Bay Area liberalism," or both.  A few other lefty enclaves make the list, including several in affluent Marin County. 

Marin County will be interested in knowing that it isn't part of the bay area.

Haha.  I'm quite aware that Marin County is in the Bay Area (unlike the Central Valley, the Bay Area is a place I know); that's just what happens when you write stuff at 1 AM.  The point was to contrast the liberalism there with, say, Oakland, Union City, Emeryville, Fremont, etc., leading up to the Prop. 8 stuff.  Which was kind of useless since I wrote "Bay Area liberalism" and made that super-vague, but whatever.  Tongue

I'm intrigued by what makes Villa Park so Republican.  It's wealthy, but if $81k MHI doesn't go so far in Hermosa Beach, I can't imagine Villa Park's $116k is that flashy.


The homes are pretty big, big yards, and a fairly low cost per square foot of living space (it's inland, the air quality is not all that great, and in general no views, and some rather marginal (but certainly not terrible) neighborhoods not that far away), and and a pretty elite school system which just takes in upper middle class housing tracts. It's also almost all Anglo (with next to no Jews). You stir that all together, and what you get are conservative oriented upper middle class parents with kids - the perfect storm for max GOP performance.

Then go to my street - views, expensive per square foot (smaller homes but not really much cheaper than those in Villa Park), excellent air quality, and not one kid on the block (23 homes).  My zone is becoming rather marginal GOP territory these days.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2009, 02:52:13 PM »

Btw, why are Victorville and Apple Valley so different?
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Alcon
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« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2009, 03:03:54 PM »


The answer from what I gather:  Victorville is cul de sac-y (probably hit by foreclosures hard too), Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots.  Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.  Its demographics are similar, but it's a distinctly different place and lifestyle.

I'll leave it to someone who's been to SBC to give a less emotive answer Tongue
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2009, 03:08:08 PM »

Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots. Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.
In other words, just like Victorville. Huh
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Sbane
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« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2009, 03:39:36 PM »

Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots. Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.
In other words, just like Victorville. Huh


Look at their racial demographics. Apple valley is only 10% black and 25% hispanic with whites making up the rest. Victorville on the other hand is 50% hispanic and 16% black. Also like Alcon said it seems like Apple Valley has more big lots and big houses/mansions. Victorville just seems to be a bunch of 2000 square foot houses with a small yard. The incomes aren't too different though. I have driven through that area a few times but never stopped.
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Alcon
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« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2009, 03:40:36 PM »

Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots. Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.
In other words, just like Victorville. Huh

The part of Victorville I've checked have all been supdevelopments, except for the most Republican part.  I don't have a full precinct map, though.  But the spread is much bigger than I'd ever guess.  Employment looks pretty comparable, too.

In any case, the parts of Victorville that most resemble Apple Valley (geographically and in platting) are comparably Republican.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2009, 03:57:22 PM »

Platting? What does a shithole in the guts of Manchester have to do with Californian suburban shitholes?
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Alcon
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« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2009, 03:58:45 PM »

Platting? What does a shithole in the guts of Manchester have to do with Californian suburban shitholes?

Cheesy

I assume that was just snark, right?  Or maybe y'all don't have "platting" under that name.
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nclib
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« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2009, 10:04:24 PM »

I'm trying to compile the largest and most densely populated cities in California that McCain carried. I've only checked So. Cal. and Bakersfield, so please make additions if you can.

City (county)          McCain margin             pop.

Bakersfield (Kern)      12.674%   308,392   
Huntington Beach (Orange)   7.339%   194,436
Santa Clarita (Los Angeles)   2.747%   168,008
Garden Grove (Orange)   4.312%   166,296
Corona (Riverside)      0.683%   150,253

City (county)            McCain margin    density

Garden Grove (Orange)   4.312%      9,238.7
Westminster (Orange)   13.986%      8,952.0
Huntington Beach (Orange)      7.339%      7,478.3
El Cajon (San Diego)      5.209%      6,554.0
Lake Forest (Orange)      9.203%      6,360.3

Anyone know any more about these cities?

Thanks to Alcon's link, I verified that the above are correct. Below are the largest and most densely populated cities in California that voted for Prop. 8.


City (county)          Yes %             pop.

Fresno (Fresno)  64.73%     466,714
Santa Ana (Orange)    61.87%   340,024
Anaheim (Orange)  62.35%   334,425
Bakersfield (Kern)   75.18%   308,392
Riverside   (Riverside) 60.3%   293,761


City (county)            Yes %    density

Inglewood (Los Angeles)   60.97%   12,627.9
Santa Ana (Orange)    61.87%   12,547.0
Garden Grove (Orange)    65.57%      9,238.7
Westminster (Orange)   65.89%      8,952.0
Downey (Los Angeles)   63.46%   8,820.6
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nclib
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« Reply #41 on: May 03, 2009, 06:43:41 PM »

Highest and lowest prop. 8 support by CD:

Yes

CA-21 (Nunes) 73.3%
CA-20 (Costa) 72.2%
CA-22 (McCarthy) 70.4%
CA-19 (Radanovich) 67.5%
CA-41 (Lewis) 67.3%

No

CA-8 (Pelosi) 76.7%
CA-9 (Lee) 71.8%
CA-30 (Waxman) 71.1%
CA-6 (Woolsey) 70.5%
CA-14 (Eshoo) 65.7%
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nclib
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« Reply #42 on: June 02, 2009, 10:21:50 PM »

As for comparing Prop. 8 vs. President, the CD map is very similar to the Kerry/Bush map--with the black/hispanic districts voting for Prop. 8, except for CA-31 (Becerra) and CA-33 (Watson) voting No on Prop. 8. Are minorities in CA-31 and CA-33 more supportive of gay marriage, or is the white population in those districts especially liberal?
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Sbane
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« Reply #43 on: June 02, 2009, 11:09:31 PM »

Those areas are just very liberal overall.  CA-33 has a lot of very socially liberal areas mixed in with moderate minority areas. I am not sure what to make of CA-31. That district definitely has a lot of liberal latinos, or maybe they are just young. I think there are some newly gentrified areas in that district as well. Anyways check out the precinct map of LA county.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/la-2008election-lacountyprecincts,0,5863152.htmlstory

BTW does anyone have a prop 8 precinct map for Santa Clara county?
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